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ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
4.4%
Alpha Score
21
Recommended
1.08u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 4.33u
◆Best lineBuy down to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake (10% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
★ RECENT FORM
Drew Stevens · Kicking Points vs 6.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 7.0
LAST 10
80%
4/5 over · avg 7.0
SEASON
80%
4/5 over · avg 7.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.02 (+102) the price needs 50% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYWSH
1-3
L101-3
Streak-
Road0-0
Run diff-34.0
HOMESF
5-0
L105-0
StreakW5
Home0-0
Run diff+61.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
WSH
Out · 4
Javontae Jean-BaptisteOUT
Jean-Baptiste (pectoral) will be sidelined for Monday's clash against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Charles OmenihuOUT
Omenihu (groin/ankle) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against San Francisco, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Marcus MariotaOUT
Mariota (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Jacory Croskey-MerrittOUT
Croskey-Merritt (groin) has been ruled out for Monday night's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 6
Stefon DiggsQ
Diggs (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against San Francisco.
Confidence readOn the fence
52% to hitrange 43-60%price needs 50%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +102 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Kicking Points projection 7.3 vs line 6.5
›Model read P(over) 58% sits 12pp off the market. Kicking Points has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 47% across 1 book
›Thin sample: the projection rests on 5 games. Capped at LEAN until 8.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 6.5)46.7%
Fair price2.14 · +114
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 8:54 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line7.27 vs 6.5
5 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games5
Current games5
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
›All model inputs (19)
Variance2.50
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Drew Stevens · Over the number
model projects 7.27
The best move
Buy this over down to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake instead of losing (10% of outcomes), same win chance as the 6.5.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 47% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
6.5
2.02 (+102)2.02
1.77 (-130)1.77
DK implied, with vig (this side): 49.5%
Line history
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EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)4.33u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.08u
EV %4.4%
Edge %+5.0pp
Nick CrossQ
questionable
Lucas PatrickQ
questionable
Javon KinlawQ
questionable
Tyler OwensQ
questionable
Percy ButlerQ
questionable
Other · 15ShowHide
Jeremy McNichols?
McNichols (quadriceps) is questionable for Monday night's game against the 49ers.
Jeremy Reaves?
Reaves (rib) doesn't carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the 49ers.
Treylon Burks?
Burks (shoulder) doesn't have a designation for Monday's game in San Francisco.
Austin Ekeler?
Ekeler (chest) does not carry an injury designation into Monday's game against the 49ers.
Rachaad White?
White (shoulder) doesn't have a designation for Monday's game at San Francisco.
Terry McLaurin?
McLaurin (hamstring) does not have an injury designation ahead of Monday's game against the 49ers.
Fabian Moreau?
Quan Martin?
Jordan Magee?
Magee (hamstring) was designated to return from injured reserve Thursday.
Antonio Williams?
Williams hauled in all three of his targets for 31 yards and added a two-yard punt return during the Commanders' 27-27 tie with the Giants on Sunday.
Van Jefferson?
Jefferson reverted to the Commanders' practice squad Monday.
Chig Okonkwo?
Okonkwo caught four of six targets for 60 yards during Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Giants.
Tanoa Togiai?
Drew Stevens?
Stevens made both of his field-goal attempts and went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Commanders' 27-27 tie with the Giants on Sunday.
Jayden Daniels?
Daniels (elbow) completed 17 of 25 passes for 199 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Giants. He also threw a successful two-point conversion.
SF
Out · 4
Marques SigleOUT
Sigle (ankle) won't play in Monday's Week 6 matchup against Washington, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Nick BosaOUT
Bosa (knee/calf) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against the Commanders, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Deebo Samuel Sr.OUT
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that the 49ers will "hold off" on placing Samuel (hamstring) on IR due to the team's bye in Week 8, Vic Tafur of the Athletic reports.
Garret WallowOUT
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Wallow will miss "at least a couple of weeks" due to a hamstring strain, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Mykel WilliamsQ
Williams (knee) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Upton StoutQ
Stout (shoulder) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Mike EvansQ
Evans (ribs) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against Washington, Vic Tafur of The Athletic reports.
Siran NealQ
questionable
Gracen HaltonQ
questionable
Other · 16ShowHide
James Thompson Jr.?
Thompson (ankle) doesn't carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Romello Height?
Kaelon Black?
Black was excused from Saturday's practice to address a personal matter but does not have an injury designation for Monday's Week 6 matchup against Washington, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Colton McKivitz?
Christian Kirk?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Saturday that the 49ers may activate Kirk (calf) from injured reserve ahead of Monday's game against the Commanders, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Kyle Juszczyk?
Juszczyk (knee) was a full participant in Friday's practice, Harrison Rich of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Carver Willis?
Demarcus Robinson?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that Robinson (ankle) has an "outside chance" to return from injured reserve for the 49ers' Week 7 game versus the Falcons but is more likely to be activated following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.
Dre Greenlaw?
Greenlaw's appeal of a one-game suspension was denied by the NFL on Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Nick Martin?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Martin's (hamstring) status will be evaluated "in these next couple of days," Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Tatum Bethune?
Enrique Cruz Jr.?
Kurtis Rourke?
Eddy Pineiro?
Pineiro went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made all three of his extra-point tries during the 49ers' 32-29 win over the Seahawks on Sunday.
Renardo Green?
Green logged one solo tackle and three pass defenses (including two interceptions) during the 49ers' 32-29 win over the Seahawks on Sunday.
George Kittle?
Kittle (illness) caught five of six targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 32-29 win over the Seahawks.
Game log
Drew Stevens · Kicking Points vs 6.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Line 6.5
4
8
9
7
7
PHIDALSEAINDNYG
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11vsNYG-7Hit
Oct 4vsINDL7Hit
Sep 27vsSEAW9Hit
Sep 20@DALL8Hit
Sep 13@PHIL4Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 6.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 50% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
