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5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
5%
Market %
5%
Edge
+0.2pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
DK
19.00
+1800
Projection0.0vs0.5(0.5 under)
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
5%
1/20
SZN
5%
1/21
H2H
-
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+0.2pp
EV
-1.9%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYWSH
1-3
L101-3
Streak-
Road0-0
Run diff-34.0
HOMESF
5-0
L105-0
StreakW5
Home0-0
Run diff+61.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Confidence readOn the fence
5% to hitrange 0-17%price needs 5%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +1800 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 3% from 0.03 TD per game over 21 games, priced P(yes) 5%
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.5 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 5% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)5.0%
Fair price20.06 · +1906
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/18, 8:54 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.03 vs 0.5
5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games16
Prior games fetched16
Current mean0
Prior mean0.063
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Ben Sinnott · Over the number
model projects 0.03
The best move
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (336.5% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
23%
-
77%
19.00 (+1800)
(+336.5%)
1
2%
21%
77%
35.09 (+3409) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 19.00 (+1800) the price needs 5% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
WSH
Out · 4
Javontae Jean-BaptisteOUT
Jean-Baptiste (pectoral) will be sidelined for Monday's clash against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Charles OmenihuOUT
Omenihu (groin/ankle) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against San Francisco, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Marcus MariotaOUT
Mariota (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Jacory Croskey-MerrittOUT
Croskey-Merritt (groin) has been ruled out for Monday night's game against the 49ers, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 6
Stefon DiggsQ
Diggs (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against San Francisco.
Nick CrossQ
questionable
Lucas PatrickQ
questionable
Javon KinlawQ
questionable
Tyler OwensQ
questionable
Percy ButlerQ
questionable
Other · 15ShowHide
Jeremy McNichols?
McNichols (quadriceps) is questionable for Monday night's game against the 49ers.
Jeremy Reaves?
Reaves (rib) doesn't carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the 49ers.
Treylon Burks?
Burks (shoulder) doesn't have a designation for Monday's game in San Francisco.
Austin Ekeler?
Ekeler (chest) does not carry an injury designation into Monday's game against the 49ers.
Rachaad White?
White (shoulder) doesn't have a designation for Monday's game at San Francisco.
Terry McLaurin?
McLaurin (hamstring) does not have an injury designation ahead of Monday's game against the 49ers.
Fabian Moreau?
Quan Martin?
SF
Out · 4
Marques SigleOUT
Sigle (ankle) won't play in Monday's Week 6 matchup against Washington, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Nick BosaOUT
Bosa (knee/calf) has been ruled out for Monday's Week 6 matchup against the Commanders, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Deebo Samuel Sr.OUT
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that the 49ers will "hold off" on placing Samuel (hamstring) on IR due to the team's bye in Week 8, Vic Tafur of the Athletic reports.
Garret WallowOUT
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Wallow will miss "at least a couple of weeks" due to a hamstring strain, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Mykel WilliamsQ
Williams (knee) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Upton StoutQ
Stout (shoulder) is questionable for Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Game log
Ben Sinnott · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
0%0/5 over
Line 0.5
0
0
0
0
0
PHIDALSEAINDNYG
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11vsNYG-0Miss
Oct 4vsINDL0Miss
Sep 27vsSEAW0Miss
Sep 20@DALL0Miss
Sep 13@PHIL0Miss
Jan 4@PHIW0Miss
Dec 25vsDALL0Miss
Dec 20vsPHIL0Miss
Dec 14@NYGW0Miss
Dec 7@MINL0Miss
Dec 1vsDENL0Miss
Nov 9vsDETL1Hit
Nov 3vsSEAL0Miss
Oct 28@KCL0Miss
Oct 19@DALL0Miss
Oct 14vsCHIL0Miss
Oct 5@LACW0Miss
Sep 28@ATLL0Miss
Sep 21vsLVW0Miss
Sep 12@GBL0Miss
Sep 7vsNYGW0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 5% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Jordan Magee?
Magee (hamstring) was designated to return from injured reserve Thursday.
Antonio Williams?
Williams hauled in all three of his targets for 31 yards and added a two-yard punt return during the Commanders' 27-27 tie with the Giants on Sunday.
Van Jefferson?
Jefferson reverted to the Commanders' practice squad Monday.
Chig Okonkwo?
Okonkwo caught four of six targets for 60 yards during Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Giants.
Tanoa Togiai?
Drew Stevens?
Stevens made both of his field-goal attempts and went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Commanders' 27-27 tie with the Giants on Sunday.
Jayden Daniels?
Daniels (elbow) completed 17 of 25 passes for 199 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Giants. He also threw a successful two-point conversion.
Mike EvansQ
Evans (ribs) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against Washington, Vic Tafur of The Athletic reports.
Siran NealQ
questionable
Gracen HaltonQ
questionable
Other · 16ShowHide
James Thompson Jr.?
Thompson (ankle) doesn't carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Commanders.
Romello Height?
Kaelon Black?
Black was excused from Saturday's practice to address a personal matter but does not have an injury designation for Monday's Week 6 matchup against Washington, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Colton McKivitz?
Christian Kirk?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Saturday that the 49ers may activate Kirk (calf) from injured reserve ahead of Monday's game against the Commanders, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Kyle Juszczyk?
Juszczyk (knee) was a full participant in Friday's practice, Harrison Rich of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Carver Willis?
Demarcus Robinson?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that Robinson (ankle) has an "outside chance" to return from injured reserve for the 49ers' Week 7 game versus the Falcons but is more likely to be activated following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.
Dre Greenlaw?
Greenlaw's appeal of a one-game suspension was denied by the NFL on Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Nick Martin?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Martin's (hamstring) status will be evaluated "in these next couple of days," Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.
Tatum Bethune?
Enrique Cruz Jr.?
Kurtis Rourke?
Eddy Pineiro?
Pineiro went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made all three of his extra-point tries during the 49ers' 32-29 win over the Seahawks on Sunday.
Renardo Green?
Green logged one solo tackle and three pass defenses (including two interceptions) during the 49ers' 32-29 win over the Seahawks on Sunday.
George Kittle?
Kittle (illness) caught five of six targets for 24 yards in Sunday's 32-29 win over the Seahawks.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
