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Zaire Franklin · Tackles + Assists · Bet Data Labs
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
7.5
UNDER
7.5
Our win %
53%
Market %
54%
Edge
-0.2pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 7.5
DK
1.75
-133
Projection7.8vs7.5(0.3 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
SZN
41%
9/22
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
-0.2pp
EV
-6.4%
Alpha Score
26
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy down to 7: an exact 7 returns your stake (11% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYDAL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMEGB
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff-8.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
DAL
Out · 3
DeMarvion OvershownOUT
Dallas has downgraded Overshown (hamstring) to out for Sunday night's game against the Packers, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.
Drew SheltonOUT
Shelton (hamstring) has ben ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Cobie DurantOUT
Durant (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Joey Porter Jr.Q
Porter (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
LT OvertonQ
questionable
Confidence readOn the fence
53% to hitrange 44-63%price needs 57%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -133 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 7.8 vs line 7.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 54% across 1 book
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 7.5)53.7%
Fair price1.86 · -116
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 8:38 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line7.80 vs 7.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games22
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Zaire Franklin · Over the number
model projects 7.8
The best move
Buy this over down to 7: an exact 7 returns your stake instead of losing (11% of outcomes), same win chance as the 7.5.
Card ID: c-401873007-ZaireFranklin-TACKLES_ASSISTSPublished 10/18/2026, 12:38:06 AM
2.72
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games22
current_games5
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean7.60
prior_mean7.35
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id3124005
season2026
8
42%
11%
47%
2.11 (+111) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 54% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
7.5
1.75 (-133)1.75
2.03 (+103)2.03
DK implied, with vig (this side): 57.1%
Line history
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EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-6.4%
Edge %-0.2pp
Ameer Speed
Q
questionable
Other · 19
George Pickens?
With CeeDee Lamb (quadriceps) healthy and cleared to play Sunday night against the Packers, Pickens will handle his normal role as Dallas' WR2.
Malachi Lawrence?
Lawrence is expected to get more opportunities on the Cowboys' defense moving forward, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
Tyler Guyton?
Guyton (back) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Alijah Clark?
Clark (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
CeeDee Lamb?
Lamb (thigh) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Emari Demercado?
Dallas signed Demercado to its 53-man roster Tuesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Ajani Cornelius?
Camden Brown?
James Houston?
Caleb Downs?
Downs recorded four total tackles (two solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
Dee Winters?
Winters registered 10 total tackles (six solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers.
Jonathan Mingo?
Mingo caught two of four passes for 20 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday.
KaVontae Turpin?
Turpin caught two of four passes for 22 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday. He also returned one punt for 10 yards and added 127 yards on five kickoff returns, fumbling on one of them.
Jake Ferguson?
Ferguson brought in three of six targets for 19 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Ryan Flournoy?
Flournoy brought in three of four targets for 90 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Brandon Aubrey?
Aubrey made his only field-goal attempt and his lone extra-point try in a Week 5 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday.
Dak Prescott?
Prescott completed 24 of 42 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Javonte Williams?
Williams rushed 12 times for 45 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 17 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Tyler Smith?
Smith (thumb) is active for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
GB
Out · 4
Benjamin St-JusteOUT
St-Juste (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Josh JacobsOUT
Jacobs (personal) will be removed from the Commissioner's Exempt List on Monday and be eligible to play as soon as the Packers' Week 7 game at Detroit, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Jordon RileyOUT
Riley (Achilles) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Packers on Wednesday, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports.
Micah ParsonsOUT
The Packers aren't planning on opening Parsons' (knee) 21-day practice window this week ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Jacob MonkQ
Monk (quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Aaron BanksQ
Banks (knee/toe) is questionable for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Brandon CisseQ
Cisse (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Savion WilliamsQ
Williams (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Anthony CampbellQ
questionable
Other · 16
Skyy Moore?
The Packers placed Moore (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.
Javon Hargrave?
ir
Jonathan Ford?
Ford (calf) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Keisean Nixon?
Nixon (groin) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Devonte Wyatt?
Evan Williams?
Williams (illness) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Donovan Jennings?
Pierre Strong Jr.?
Strong took the field for 24 of the Packers' 59 offensive snaps in Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, finishing with five carries for seven yards and three catches for 11 yards on four targets.
Tyrod Taylor?
Taylor played the final two snaps of Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, losing two yards on a pair of kneeldowns.
Trey Smack?
Smack went 1-for-3 on field-goal attempts and 2-for-3 on extra-point tries during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
MarShawn Lloyd?
Lloyd rushed 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for six yards during Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears.
Tucker Kraft?
Kraft brought in all five targets for 64 yards and rushed once for two yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
Jordan Love?
Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding one carry for six yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also fumbled once but recovered.
Matthew Golden?
Golden secured six of seven targets for 123 yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also returned two punts for 27 yards.
Christian Watson?
Watson brought in six of eight targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
Jager Burton?
Burton (back) is active Week 5 against Chicago.
★ RECENT FORM
Zaire Franklin · Tackles + Assists vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 7.6
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 7.6
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 7.6
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.75 (-133) the price needs 57% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Zaire Franklin · Tackles + Assists vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 7.5
4
7
10
8
9
MINNYJATLTBCHI
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11vsCHIW9Hit
Oct 4@TBW8Hit
Sep 25vsATLL10Hit
Sep 20@NYJW7Miss
Sep 13@MINL4Miss
Jan 4@HOUL12Hit
Dec 28vsJAXL5Miss
Dec 23vsSFL4Miss
Dec 14@SEAL10Hit
Dec 7@JAXL7Miss
Nov 30vsHOUL13Hit
Nov 23@KCL14Hit
Nov 9vsATLW10Hit
Nov 2@PITL6Miss
Oct 26vsTENW2Miss
Oct 19@LACW5Miss
Oct 12vsARIW9Hit
Oct 5vsLVW6Miss
Sep 28@LARL7Miss
Sep 21@TENW6Miss
Sep 14vsDENW5Miss
Sep 7vsMIAW4Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 7.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 57% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
