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Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readPrice too short
47% to hitrange 42-53%price needs 62%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -162 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Receptions projection 0.8 vs line 0.5
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.3 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(over) 58% across 3 books
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~58% have hit 50% over 2773 graded, of which 1390 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.7pp.
Card ID: c-401873007-SavionWilliams-RECEPTIONSPublished 10/19/2026, 12:13:01 AM
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
6/12
SZN
50%
6/12
H2H
100%
1/1
ACC
50%
n=2773
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions over plays: 50% of 2773 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: GB has 7 OUT
›Opponent DAL missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ GB has 7 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)57.8%
Fair price1.73 · -137
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/18, 8:13 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.80 vs 0.5
12 games last season, 0% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games0
Prior games12
Prior games fetched12
Prior mean0.800
Role shift0
›All model inputs (15)
Variance1.50
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games0
prior_games12
prior_games_fetched12
current_meannull
prior_mean0.800
current_weight0
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games12
player_espn_id4431487
season2026
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Savion Williams · Over the number
model projects 0.8
The best move
The 0.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
55%
-
45%
1.62 (-162)
-10.9%
1
38%
17%
45%
2.17 (+117) fair
-
1.5
38%
-
62%
3.40 (+240)
(+30.3%)
2.5
24%
-
76%
7.40 (+640)
(+77.2%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 58% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
0.5
1.61 (-165)1.61
2.29 (+129)2.29
FD★ Best
0.5
1.62 (-162)1.62
2.22 (+122)2.22
FD implied, with vig (this side): 61.8%
Line history
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◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+7.3/ 55
Calibrated win probability 47%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 58% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 4; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions over) hit 50.4% over 2,773 graded cards, 2,766 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
DAL
Out · 3
DeMarvion OvershownOUT
Overshown (hamstring) is on track to play in Week 7 against the Eagles, Joe Hoyt of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Drew SheltonOUT
out
Cobie DurantOUT
out
Questionable / DTD · 2
KaVontae TurpinQ
Turpin (ribs) is expected to miss the team's Week 7 matchup with the Eagles, Joe Hoyt of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Dee WintersD
Winters sprained his Achilles during Sunday night's game against the Packers and will likely miss at least a week, Joe Hoyt of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Other · 20ShowHide
Brandon Aubrey?
Aubrey did not attempt any field goals but converted his only extra-point try during Sunday's 23-13 loss at Green Bay.
James Houston?
Alijah Clark?
Camden Brown?
Javonte Williams?
Williams rushed 11 times for 41 yards and a touchdown while catching both of his targets for nine yards in Sunday's 23-13 loss to the Packers.
Dak Prescott?
Prescott completed 34 of 54 passes for 258 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 23-13 loss to the Packers. He also rushed twice for seven yards.
George Pickens?
Pickens caught six of 11 targets for 73 yards in Sunday's 23-13 loss to the Packers.
Ryan Flournoy?
Flournoy caught seven of nine targets for 40 yards and a touchdown in Sunday night's 23-13 loss to the Packers.
Jake Ferguson?
Ferguson caught two of three targets for 13 yards during Sunday night's 23-13 loss to the Packers.
GB
Out · 4
Micah ParsonsOUT
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said that Parsons (knee) won't practice in Week 7, Weston Hodkiewicz of the team's official site reports. "He has to clear some hurdles yet before we get to that point," LaFleur said.
Benjamin St-JusteOUT
out
Aaron BanksOUT
Banks (toe) is inactive for Sunday night's game against Dallas.
Jordon RileyOUT
Riley (Achilles) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Packers on Wednesday, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Brandon CisseQ
Cisse (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday night's contest against Dallas.
Other · 20ShowHide
CeeDee Lamb?
Lamb caught nine of 18 targets for 70 yards in Sunday's 23-13 loss to the Packers.
Joey Porter Jr.?
Porter (ankle) is active for Sunday night's contest against Green Bay, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Emari Demercado?
Demercado (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday night's matchup with the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
LT Overton?
Ameer Speed?
Malachi Lawrence?
Lawrence is expected to get more opportunities on the Cowboys' defense moving forward, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
Tyler Guyton?
Guyton (back) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Ajani Cornelius?
Caleb Downs?
Downs recorded four total tackles (two solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
Jonathan Mingo?
Mingo caught two of four passes for 20 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday.
Tyler Smith?
Smith (thumb) is active for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Savion Williams?
Williams caught all four of his targets for 32 yards and he rushed twice for nine yards during Sunday night's 23-13 win over Dallas.
Josh Jacobs?
Head coach Matt LaFleur said that Jacobs (personal) will get in a full week of practice, but the Packers have yet to determine whether he'll be able to make his season debut Sunday in Detroit, Weston Hodkiewicz of the team's official site reports. "We feel he's in a pretty good spot," LaFleur said. "He's been training but he's missed the exposure to football."
Donovan Jennings?
Jager Burton?
MarShawn Lloyd?
Lloyd rushed eight times for 10 yards while failing to catch his only target during Sunday night's 23-13 win over Dallas.
Christian Watson?
Watson caught three of eight targets for 64 yards in Sunday's 23-13 win over the Cowboys.
Matthew Golden?
Golden caught six of 13 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 23-13 win over the Cowboys.
Jordan Love?
Love completed 23 of 41 passes for 276 yards, one touchdown and one interception in Sunday's 23-13 win over the Cowboys. He also rushed twice for 14 yards and a touchdown.
Pierre Strong Jr.?
Strong rushed 11 times for 28 yards in Sunday night's 23-13 win over the Cowboys. He caught five of six targets for 39 yards.
Tucker Kraft?
Kraft caught five of eight targets for 37 yards in Sunday night's 23-13 win over the Cowboys.
Jacob Monk?
Monk (quadriceps) is active for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys.
Anthony Campbell?
Campbell (ankle) is active for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys.
Jonathan Ford?
The Packers placed Ford (calf) on injured reserve Saturday.
Javon Hargrave?
The Packers placed Hargrave (Achilles) on injured reserve Saturday.
Skyy Moore?
The Packers placed Moore (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.
Keisean Nixon?
Nixon (groin) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Devonte Wyatt?
Evan Williams?
Williams (illness) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Tyrod Taylor?
Taylor played the final two snaps of Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, losing two yards on a pair of kneeldowns.
Trey Smack?
Smack went 1-for-3 on field-goal attempts and 2-for-3 on extra-point tries during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
★ RECENT FORM
Savion Williams · Receptions vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
100%
1/1 over · avg 4.0
LAST 10
100%
1/1 over · avg 4.0
SEASON
100%
1/1 over · avg 4.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.62 (-162) the price needs 62% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Game log
Savion Williams · Receptions vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 0.5
2
1
0
0
4
PHINYGMINCHIDAL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 19vsDALW4Hit
Dec 21@CHIL0Miss
Nov 23vsMINW0Miss
Nov 16@NYGW1Hit
Nov 11vsPHIL2Hit
Nov 2vsCARL2Hit
Oct 27@PITW1Hit
Oct 19@ARIW0Miss
Oct 12vsCINW0Miss
Sep 29@DAL-3Hit
Sep 21@CLEL0Miss
Sep 12vsWSHW0Miss
Sep 7vsDETW1Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 62% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
