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5 games this season, 15 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
31%
Market %
33%
Edge
-2.5pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
DK
2.60
+160
Projection0.3vs0.5(0.2 under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
15%
3/20
SZN
15%
3/20
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.5pp
EV
-20.1%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 0-6 on Golden
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 27% from 0.31 TD per game over 20 games, priced P(yes) 31%
›Model read P(yes) 27% sits 7pp off the market. Anytime TD has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.2 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 33% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: GB has 7 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ GB has 7 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)33.3%
Fair price3.01 · +201
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/17, 10:38 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.27 vs 0.5
5 games this season, 15 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games15
Prior games fetched15
Current mean0.400
Prior mean0.067
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
2.60 (+160)2.60
- (0)1.00
FD
0.5
2.55 (+155)2.55
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
2.50 (+150)2.50
- (0)1.00
DK implied, with vig (this side): 38.5%
Confidence readPrice too short
31% to hitrange 24-38%price needs 38%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +160 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
34%
-
66%
2.60 (+160)
(-10.6%)
1
3%
31%
66%
21.75 (+2075) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
DAL
Out · 2
Drew SheltonOUT
Shelton (hamstring) has ben ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Cobie DurantOUT
Durant (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Joey Porter Jr.Q
Porter (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
DeMarvion OvershownQ
Overshown (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Ameer Speed
Q
questionable
Other · 19
George Pickens?
With CeeDee Lamb (quadriceps) healthy and cleared to play Sunday night against the Packers, Pickens will handle his normal role as Dallas' WR2.
Malachi Lawrence?
Lawrence is expected to get more opportunities on the Cowboys' defense moving forward, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
Tyler Guyton?
Guyton (back) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Alijah Clark?
Clark (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
CeeDee Lamb?
Lamb (thigh) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Emari Demercado?
Dallas signed Demercado to its 53-man roster Tuesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Ajani Cornelius?
Camden Brown?
James Houston?
Caleb Downs?
Downs recorded four total tackles (two solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
Dee Winters?
Winters registered 10 total tackles (six solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers.
Jonathan Mingo?
Mingo caught two of four passes for 20 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday.
KaVontae Turpin?
Turpin caught two of four passes for 22 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday. He also returned one punt for 10 yards and added 127 yards on five kickoff returns, fumbling on one of them.
Jake Ferguson?
Ferguson brought in three of six targets for 19 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Ryan Flournoy?
Flournoy brought in three of four targets for 90 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Brandon Aubrey?
Aubrey made his only field-goal attempt and his lone extra-point try in a Week 5 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday.
Dak Prescott?
Prescott completed 24 of 42 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Javonte Williams?
Williams rushed 12 times for 45 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 17 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Tyler Smith?
Smith (thumb) is active for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
GB
Out · 7
Benjamin St-JusteOUT
St-Juste (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Jonathan FordOUT
Ford (calf) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Skyy MooreOUT
Moore (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Josh JacobsOUT
Jacobs (personal) will be removed from the Commissioner's Exempt List on Monday and be eligible to play as soon as the Packers' Week 7 game at Detroit, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Jordon RileyOUT
Riley (Achilles) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Packers on Wednesday, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports.
Micah ParsonsOUT
The Packers aren't planning on opening Parsons' (knee) 21-day practice window this week ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Javon HargraveOUT
MRI tests Monday confirmed that Hargrave tore his Achilles during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Jacob MonkQ
Monk (quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Aaron BanksQ
Banks (knee/toe) is questionable for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Brandon CisseQ
Cisse (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Anthony CampbellQ
questionable
Other · 14
Keisean Nixon?
Nixon (groin) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Savion Williams?
Williams (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Devonte Wyatt?
Evan Williams?
Williams (illness) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Donovan Jennings?
Pierre Strong Jr.?
Strong took the field for 24 of the Packers' 59 offensive snaps in Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, finishing with five carries for seven yards and three catches for 11 yards on four targets.
Tyrod Taylor?
Taylor played the final two snaps of Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, losing two yards on a pair of kneeldowns.
Trey Smack?
Smack went 1-for-3 on field-goal attempts and 2-for-3 on extra-point tries during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
★ RECENT FORM
Matthew Golden · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 0.4
LAST 10
40%
2/5 over · avg 0.4
SEASON
40%
2/5 over · avg 0.4
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.60 (+160) the price needs 38% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYDAL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMEGB
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff-8.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Matthew Golden · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 11vsCHIW0Miss
Oct 4@TBW1Hit
Sep 25vsATLL1Hit
Sep 20@NYJW0Miss
Sep 13@MINL0Miss
Jan 11@CHIL1Hit
Jan 4@MINL0Miss
Dec 28vsBALL0Miss
Dec 21@CHIL0Miss
Dec 14@DENL0Miss
Dec 7vsCHIW0Miss
Nov 16@NYGW0Miss
Nov 2vsCARL0Miss
Oct 27@PITW0Miss
Oct 19@ARIW0Miss
Oct 12vsCINW0Miss
Sep 29@DAL-0Miss
Sep 21@CLEL0Miss
Sep 12vsWSHW0Miss
Sep 7vsDETW0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 38% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
MarShawn Lloyd?
Lloyd rushed 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for six yards during Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears.
Tucker Kraft?
Kraft brought in all five targets for 64 yards and rushed once for two yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
Jordan Love?
Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding one carry for six yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also fumbled once but recovered.
Matthew Golden?
Golden secured six of seven targets for 123 yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also returned two punts for 27 yards.
Christian Watson?
Watson brought in six of eight targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
