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Rushing Yards 9.5 · GB · vs DAL · Cowboys at Packers
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
9.5
UNDER
9.5
Our win %
48%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.5pp
Market
Rushing Yards 9.5
FD
1.88
-113
Projection20.6vs9.5(11.1 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
43%
6/14
SZN
43%
6/14
H2H
-
ACC
49%
n=1864
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards over plays: 49% of 1864 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.5pp
EV
-10.5%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-2 on Johnson
◆Best lineBetter number: Over 19.5 at 3.20 (+220) (+63.8% EV)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYDAL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMEGB
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff-8.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
DAL
Out · 7
Emari DemercadoOUT
Demercado (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday night's matchup with the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Drew SheltonOUT
inactive
DeMarvion OvershownOUT
inactive
Cobie DurantOUT
inactive
James HoustonOUT
inactive
Camden BrownOUT
inactive
Alijah ClarkOUT
inactive
Confidence readPrice too short
48% to hitrange 43-52%price needs 53%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 20.6 vs line 9.5
›Model read P(over) 62% sits 12pp off the market. Rushing Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 1864 graded, of which 934 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.5pp.
›Baby line: 9.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: GB has 7 OUT
›Opponent DAL missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ GB has 7 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1864 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 934 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 9.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 8:13 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line20.60 vs 9.5
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games4
Prior games6
Prior games fetched10
Current mean26.50
Prior mean6.90
›All model inputs (15)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Kaleb Johnson · Over the number
model projects 20.6
The best move
Best value is the 19.5 at 3.20 (+220) (63.8% EV) - a better number than the 9.5 this card is priced at.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
4.5
67%
-
33%
1.41 (-245)
-6%
9
62%
1%
37%
1.60 (-166) fair
-
9.5now
62%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+7.5/ 55
Calibrated win probability 47%
Market+0/ 15
Market consensus 50% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
Card ID: c-401873007-KalebJohnson-RUSHING_YARDSPublished 10/19/2026, 12:13:01 AM
Variance25.30
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games4
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched10
current_mean26.50
prior_mean6.90
current_weight0.730
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games14
player_espn_id4819231
season2026
-
38%
1.88 (-113)
+16.5%
10
61%
1%
38%
1.63 (-159) fair
-
14.5
57%
-
43%
2.46 (+146)
+39.2%
19.5best EV
51%
-
49%
3.20 (+220)
+63.8%
24.5
46%
-
54%
3.90 (+290)
(+78.6%)
29.5
40%
-
60%
4.90 (+390)
(+98.3%)
39.5
31%
-
69%
6.80 (+580)
(+108.1%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD★ Best
9.5
1.88 (-113)1.88
1.88 (-113)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.1%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Porter (ankle) is active for Sunday night's contest against Green Bay, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
LT Overton?
Ameer Speed?
George Pickens?
With CeeDee Lamb (quadriceps) healthy and cleared to play Sunday night against the Packers, Pickens will handle his normal role as Dallas' WR2.
Malachi Lawrence?
Lawrence is expected to get more opportunities on the Cowboys' defense moving forward, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
Tyler Guyton?
Guyton (back) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
CeeDee Lamb?
Lamb (thigh) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Ajani Cornelius?
Caleb Downs?
Downs recorded four total tackles (two solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
Dee Winters?
Winters registered 10 total tackles (six solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers.
Jonathan Mingo?
Mingo caught two of four passes for 20 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday.
Jake Ferguson?
Ferguson brought in three of six targets for 19 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Ryan Flournoy?
Flournoy brought in three of four targets for 90 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Brandon Aubrey?
Aubrey made his only field-goal attempt and his lone extra-point try in a Week 5 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday.
Dak Prescott?
Prescott completed 24 of 42 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Javonte Williams?
Williams rushed 12 times for 45 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 17 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Tyler Smith?
Smith (thumb) is active for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
GB
Out · 7
Aaron BanksOUT
Banks (toe) is inactive for Sunday night's game against Dallas.
Benjamin St-JusteOUT
inactive
Donovan JenningsOUT
inactive
Jager BurtonOUT
inactive
Josh JacobsOUT
Jacobs (personal) will be removed from the Commissioner's Exempt List on Monday and be eligible to play as soon as the Packers' Week 7 game at Detroit, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Jordon RileyOUT
Riley (Achilles) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Packers on Wednesday, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports.
Micah ParsonsOUT
The Packers aren't planning on opening Parsons' (knee) 21-day practice window this week ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Other · 18ShowHide
Jacob Monk?
Monk (quadriceps) is active for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys.
Anthony Campbell?
Campbell (ankle) is active for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys.
Brandon Cisse?
Cisse (hip) is active for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys.
Savion Williams?
Williams (ankle) is active for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys.
Jonathan Ford?
The Packers placed Ford (calf) on injured reserve Saturday.
Coleman Owen?
The Packers elevated Owen from the practice squad Saturday ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Javon Hargrave?
The Packers placed Hargrave (Achilles) on injured reserve Saturday.
Skyy Moore?
The Packers placed Moore (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.
Keisean Nixon?
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards over) hit 49.0% over 1,864 graded cards, 1,860 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Nixon (groin) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Devonte Wyatt?
Evan Williams?
Williams (illness) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Pierre Strong Jr.?
Strong took the field for 24 of the Packers' 59 offensive snaps in Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, finishing with five carries for seven yards and three catches for 11 yards on four targets.
Tyrod Taylor?
Taylor played the final two snaps of Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, losing two yards on a pair of kneeldowns.
Trey Smack?
Smack went 1-for-3 on field-goal attempts and 2-for-3 on extra-point tries during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
MarShawn Lloyd?
Lloyd rushed 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for six yards during Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears.
Tucker Kraft?
Kraft brought in all five targets for 64 yards and rushed once for two yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
Jordan Love?
Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding one carry for six yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also fumbled once but recovered.
Matthew Golden?
Golden secured six of seven targets for 123 yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also returned two punts for 27 yards.
★ RECENT FORM
Kaleb Johnson · Rushing Yards vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
75%
3/4 over · avg 26.5
LAST 10
75%
3/4 over · avg 26.5
SEASON
75%
3/4 over · avg 26.5
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Kaleb Johnson · Rushing Yards vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 9.5
4
32
6
42
26
MIANYJATLTBCHI
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11vsCHIW26Hit
Oct 4@TBW42Hit
Sep 25vsATLL6Miss
Sep 20@NYJW32Hit
Dec 16vsMIAW4Miss
Dec 7@BALW4Miss
Nov 30vsBUFL3Miss
Nov 16vsCINW15Hit
Nov 10@LACL3Miss
Nov 2vsINDW4Miss
Oct 12vsCLEW15Hit
Sep 28vsMINW22Hit
Sep 14vsSEAL1Miss
Sep 7@NYJW-2Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 9.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
