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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
5.5
UNDER
5.5
Our win %
50%
Market %
50%
Edge
+0.5pp
Market
Rushing Yards 5.5
FD
1.88
-114
Projection2.6vs5.5(2.9 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
40%
8/20
SZN
43%
9/21
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
54%
n=990
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards under plays: 54% of 990 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+0.5pp
EV
-5.7%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 6-8 on Love
◆Best lineBetter number: Under 6.5 at 1.93 (-107) (+4.9% EV)
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 2.6 vs line 5.5
›Edge test fails: 53% looks big, but the actual gap is only 2.9 and Rushing Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 3 books
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~57% have hit 54% over 990 graded, of which 496 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 2.9pp.
›Baby line: 5.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: GB has 7 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ GB has 7 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 990 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 54%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 496 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 2.9pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 5.5)49.7%
Fair price1.99 · -101
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/17, 9:54 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line2.60 vs 5.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched16
Current mean-0.400
Prior mean13.10
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
6.5
1.85 (-118)1.85
1.93 (-107)1.93
FD★ Best
5.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
50% to hitrange 47-54%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
DAL
Out · 2
Drew SheltonOUT
Shelton (hamstring) has ben ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Cobie DurantOUT
Durant (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Joey Porter Jr.Q
Porter (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
DeMarvion OvershownQ
Overshown (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
LT OvertonQ
questionable
Ameer SpeedQ
questionable
Other · 19
George Pickens?
With CeeDee Lamb (quadriceps) healthy and cleared to play Sunday night against the Packers, Pickens will handle his normal role as Dallas' WR2.
Malachi Lawrence?
Lawrence is expected to get more opportunities on the Cowboys' defense moving forward, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
Tyler Guyton?
Guyton (back) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Alijah Clark?
Clark (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
CeeDee Lamb?
Lamb (thigh) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Emari Demercado?
Dallas signed Demercado to its 53-man roster Tuesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Ajani Cornelius?
Camden Brown?
GB
Out · 7
Benjamin St-JusteOUT
St-Juste (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Jonathan FordOUT
Ford (calf) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Skyy MooreOUT
Moore (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Josh JacobsOUT
Jacobs (personal) will be removed from the Commissioner's Exempt List on Monday and be eligible to play as soon as the Packers' Week 7 game at Detroit, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Jordon RileyOUT
Riley (Achilles) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Packers on Wednesday, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports.
Micah ParsonsOUT
The Packers aren't planning on opening Parsons' (knee) 21-day practice window this week ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Javon HargraveOUT
MRI tests Monday confirmed that Hargrave tore his Achilles during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYDAL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMEGB
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff-8.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
James Houston?
Caleb Downs?
Downs recorded four total tackles (two solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
Dee Winters?
Winters registered 10 total tackles (six solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers.
Jonathan Mingo?
Mingo caught two of four passes for 20 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday.
KaVontae Turpin?
Turpin caught two of four passes for 22 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday. He also returned one punt for 10 yards and added 127 yards on five kickoff returns, fumbling on one of them.
Jake Ferguson?
Ferguson brought in three of six targets for 19 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Ryan Flournoy?
Flournoy brought in three of four targets for 90 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Brandon Aubrey?
Aubrey made his only field-goal attempt and his lone extra-point try in a Week 5 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday.
Dak Prescott?
Prescott completed 24 of 42 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Javonte Williams?
Williams rushed 12 times for 45 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 17 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Tyler Smith?
Smith (thumb) is active for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Jacob MonkQ
Monk (quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Aaron BanksQ
Banks (knee/toe) is questionable for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Brandon CisseQ
Cisse (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Anthony CampbellQ
questionable
Other · 14
Keisean Nixon?
Nixon (groin) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Savion Williams?
Williams (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Devonte Wyatt?
Evan Williams?
Williams (illness) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Donovan Jennings?
Pierre Strong Jr.?
Strong took the field for 24 of the Packers' 59 offensive snaps in Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, finishing with five carries for seven yards and three catches for 11 yards on four targets.
Tyrod Taylor?
Taylor played the final two snaps of Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, losing two yards on a pair of kneeldowns.
Trey Smack?
Smack went 1-for-3 on field-goal attempts and 2-for-3 on extra-point tries during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
MarShawn Lloyd?
Lloyd rushed 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for six yards during Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears.
Tucker Kraft?
Kraft brought in all five targets for 64 yards and rushed once for two yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
Jordan Love?
Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding one carry for six yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also fumbled once but recovered.
Matthew Golden?
Golden secured six of seven targets for 123 yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also returned two punts for 27 yards.
Christian Watson?
Watson brought in six of eight targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
Jager Burton?
Burton (back) is active Week 5 against Chicago.
★ RECENT FORM
Jordan Love · Rushing Yards vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg -0.4
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg -0.4
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg -0.4
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Game log
Jordan Love · Rushing Yards vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 11vsCHIW6Miss
Oct 4@TBW-8Hit
Sep 25vsATLL0Hit
Sep 20@NYJW0Hit
Sep 13@MINL0Hit
Jan 11@CHIL11Miss
Dec 21@CHIL7Miss
Dec 14@DENL29Miss
Dec 7vsCHIW-1Hit
Nov 27@DETW4Hit
Nov 23vsMINW15Miss
Nov 16@NYGW7Miss
Nov 11vsPHIL28Miss
Nov 2vsCARL1Hit
Oct 27@PITW-1Hit
Oct 19@ARIW22Miss
Oct 12vsCINW26Miss
Sep 29@DAL-28Miss
Sep 21@CLEL18Miss
Sep 12vsWSHW12Miss
Sep 7vsDETW4Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 5.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards under) hit 54.3% over 990 graded cards, 988 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
