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Javonte Williams · Rush + Rec Yards · Bet Data Labs
5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
86.5
UNDER
86.5
Our win %
55%
Market %
50%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush + Rec Yards 86.5
DK
1.88
-113
Projection80.2vs86.5(6.3 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
55%
11/20
SZN
57%
12/21
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
3.7%
Alpha Score
40
Recommended
1.06u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 8-4 on WilliamsStake 4.22u
Why this card
›Rush + Rec Yards projection 80.2 vs line 86.5
›Model read P(under) 57% sits 7pp off the market. Rush + Rec Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: our 6.3 gap is only 7% of the 86.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 3 books
›Opponent GB missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 86.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/17, 10:38 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line80.20 vs 86.5
5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games21
Current games5
Prior games16
Prior games fetched16
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
86.5
1.89 (-112)1.89
1.88 (-113)1.88
FD
86.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
55% to hitrange 49-61%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Ameer Speed
Q
questionable
Other · 19
George Pickens?
With CeeDee Lamb (quadriceps) healthy and cleared to play Sunday night against the Packers, Pickens will handle his normal role as Dallas' WR2.
Malachi Lawrence?
Lawrence is expected to get more opportunities on the Cowboys' defense moving forward, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
Tyler Guyton?
Guyton (back) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Alijah Clark?
Clark (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
CeeDee Lamb?
Lamb (thigh) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Emari Demercado?
Dallas signed Demercado to its 53-man roster Tuesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Ajani Cornelius?
Camden Brown?
James Houston?
Caleb Downs?
Downs recorded four total tackles (two solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
Dee Winters?
Winters registered 10 total tackles (six solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers.
Jonathan Mingo?
Mingo caught two of four passes for 20 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday.
KaVontae Turpin?
Turpin caught two of four passes for 22 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday. He also returned one punt for 10 yards and added 127 yards on five kickoff returns, fumbling on one of them.
Jake Ferguson?
Ferguson brought in three of six targets for 19 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Ryan Flournoy?
Flournoy brought in three of four targets for 90 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Brandon Aubrey?
Aubrey made his only field-goal attempt and his lone extra-point try in a Week 5 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday.
Dak Prescott?
Prescott completed 24 of 42 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Javonte Williams?
Williams rushed 12 times for 45 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 17 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Tyler Smith?
Smith (thumb) is active for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
GB
Out · 7
Benjamin St-JusteOUT
St-Juste (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Jonathan FordOUT
Ford (calf) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Skyy MooreOUT
Moore (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Josh JacobsOUT
Jacobs (personal) will be removed from the Commissioner's Exempt List on Monday and be eligible to play as soon as the Packers' Week 7 game at Detroit, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Jordon RileyOUT
Riley (Achilles) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Packers on Wednesday, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports.
Micah ParsonsOUT
The Packers aren't planning on opening Parsons' (knee) 21-day practice window this week ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Javon HargraveOUT
MRI tests Monday confirmed that Hargrave tore his Achilles during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Jacob MonkQ
Monk (quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Aaron BanksQ
Banks (knee/toe) is questionable for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Brandon CisseQ
Cisse (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Anthony CampbellQ
questionable
Other · 14
Keisean Nixon?
Nixon (groin) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Savion Williams?
Williams (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Devonte Wyatt?
Evan Williams?
Williams (illness) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Donovan Jennings?
Pierre Strong Jr.?
Strong took the field for 24 of the Packers' 59 offensive snaps in Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, finishing with five carries for seven yards and three catches for 11 yards on four targets.
Tyrod Taylor?
Taylor played the final two snaps of Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, losing two yards on a pair of kneeldowns.
Trey Smack?
Smack went 1-for-3 on field-goal attempts and 2-for-3 on extra-point tries during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
★ RECENT FORM
Javonte Williams · Rush + Rec Yards vs 86.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 74.0
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 74.0
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 74.0
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYDAL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMEGB
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff-8.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Javonte Williams · Rush + Rec Yards vs 86.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 9vsTBL62Hit
Oct 4@HOUW83Hit
Sep 27vsBALL103Miss
Sep 20vsWSHW50Hit
Sep 14@NYGL72Hit
Dec 25@WSHW54Hit
Dec 21vsLACL43Hit
Dec 15vsMINL91Miss
Dec 5@DETL67Hit
Nov 27vsKCW80Hit
Nov 23vsPHIW101Miss
Nov 18@LVW93Miss
Nov 4vsARIL83Hit
Oct 26@DENL49Hit
Oct 19vsWSHW118Miss
Oct 12@CARL34Hit
Oct 5@NYJW139Miss
Sep 29vsGB-100Miss
Sep 21@CHIL92Miss
Sep 14vsNYGW130Miss
Sep 5@PHIL64Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 86.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
MarShawn Lloyd?
Lloyd rushed 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for six yards during Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears.
Tucker Kraft?
Kraft brought in all five targets for 64 yards and rushed once for two yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
Jordan Love?
Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding one carry for six yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also fumbled once but recovered.
Matthew Golden?
Golden secured six of seven targets for 123 yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also returned two punts for 27 yards.
Christian Watson?
Watson brought in six of eight targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
