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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
3.5
UNDER
3.5
Our win %
50%
Market %
54%
Edge
-4.2pp
Market
Receptions 3.5
DK
1.79
-126
Projection3.4vs3.5(0.1 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
45%
10/22
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
56%
n=2757
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions under plays: 56% of 2757 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-4.2pp
EV
-10.2%
Alpha Score
18
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 1-5 on Ferguson
◆Best lineBuy up to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake (15% push)
Why this card
›Receptions projection 3.4 vs line 3.5
›Edge test fails: our 0.1 gap is only 3% of the 3.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 54% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~57% have hit 56% over 2757 graded, of which 1381 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 1.5pp.
›Opponent GB missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2757 NFL receptions cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 56%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1381 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 1.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 3.5)54.3%
Fair price2.19 · +119
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/17, 10:38 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line3.40 vs 3.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched17
Current mean3
Prior mean4.80
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
3.5
1.99 (-101)1.99
1.79 (-126)1.79
FD
3.5
2.06 (+106)2.06
1.71 (-140)1.71
DK implied, with vig (this side): 55.8%
Confidence readOn the fence
50% to hitrange 44-57%price needs 56%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -126 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 54% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYDAL
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMEGB
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff-8.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions under) hit 55.9% over 2,757 graded cards, 2,752 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
DAL
Out · 2
Drew SheltonOUT
Shelton (hamstring) has ben ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Cobie DurantOUT
Durant (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Joey Porter Jr.Q
Porter (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
DeMarvion OvershownQ
Overshown (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
LT OvertonQ
questionable
Ameer SpeedQ
questionable
Other · 19
George Pickens?
With CeeDee Lamb (quadriceps) healthy and cleared to play Sunday night against the Packers, Pickens will handle his normal role as Dallas' WR2.
Malachi Lawrence?
Lawrence is expected to get more opportunities on the Cowboys' defense moving forward, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
Tyler Guyton?
Guyton (back) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Alijah Clark?
Clark (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
CeeDee Lamb?
Lamb (thigh) was a full practice participant Wednesday, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Emari Demercado?
Dallas signed Demercado to its 53-man roster Tuesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Ajani Cornelius?
Camden Brown?
GB
Out · 7
Benjamin St-JusteOUT
St-Juste (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Jonathan FordOUT
Ford (calf) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Skyy MooreOUT
Moore (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday night's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Josh JacobsOUT
Jacobs (personal) will be removed from the Commissioner's Exempt List on Monday and be eligible to play as soon as the Packers' Week 7 game at Detroit, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Jordon RileyOUT
Riley (Achilles) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Packers on Wednesday, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports.
Micah ParsonsOUT
The Packers aren't planning on opening Parsons' (knee) 21-day practice window this week ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Javon HargraveOUT
MRI tests Monday confirmed that Hargrave tore his Achilles during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
James Houston?
Caleb Downs?
Downs recorded four total tackles (two solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
Dee Winters?
Winters registered 10 total tackles (six solo) during Thursday night's 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers.
Jonathan Mingo?
Mingo caught two of four passes for 20 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday.
KaVontae Turpin?
Turpin caught two of four passes for 22 yards during the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday. He also returned one punt for 10 yards and added 127 yards on five kickoff returns, fumbling on one of them.
Jake Ferguson?
Ferguson brought in three of six targets for 19 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Ryan Flournoy?
Flournoy brought in three of four targets for 90 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Brandon Aubrey?
Aubrey made his only field-goal attempt and his lone extra-point try in a Week 5 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday.
Dak Prescott?
Prescott completed 24 of 42 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Javonte Williams?
Williams rushed 12 times for 45 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 17 yards in the Cowboys' 24-16 loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
Tyler Smith?
Smith (thumb) is active for Thursday's game against the Buccaneers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 4
Jacob MonkQ
Monk (quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.
Aaron BanksQ
Banks (knee/toe) is questionable for Sunday's game against Dallas.
Brandon CisseQ
Cisse (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Anthony CampbellQ
questionable
Other · 14
Keisean Nixon?
Nixon (groin) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Savion Williams?
Williams (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Devonte Wyatt?
Evan Williams?
Williams (illness) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Donovan Jennings?
Pierre Strong Jr.?
Strong took the field for 24 of the Packers' 59 offensive snaps in Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, finishing with five carries for seven yards and three catches for 11 yards on four targets.
Tyrod Taylor?
Taylor played the final two snaps of Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears, losing two yards on a pair of kneeldowns.
Trey Smack?
Smack went 1-for-3 on field-goal attempts and 2-for-3 on extra-point tries during the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
MarShawn Lloyd?
Lloyd rushed 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns while catching one of two targets for six yards during Sunday's 31-7 win over the Bears.
Tucker Kraft?
Kraft brought in all five targets for 64 yards and rushed once for two yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
Jordan Love?
Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding one carry for six yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also fumbled once but recovered.
Matthew Golden?
Golden secured six of seven targets for 123 yards in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday. He also returned two punts for 27 yards.
Christian Watson?
Watson brought in six of eight targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers' 31-7 win over the Bears on Sunday.
Jager Burton?
Burton (back) is active Week 5 against Chicago.
★ RECENT FORM
Jake Ferguson · Receptions vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 3.0
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 3.0
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 3.0
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.79 (-126) the price needs 56% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Game log
Jake Ferguson · Receptions vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 9vsTBL3Hit
Oct 4@HOUW3Hit
Sep 27vsBALL3Hit
Sep 20vsWSHW4Miss
Sep 14@NYGL2Hit
Jan 4@NYGL1Hit
Dec 25@WSHW1Hit
Dec 21vsLACL3Hit
Dec 15vsMINL2Hit
Dec 5@DETL5Miss
Nov 27vsKCW5Miss
Nov 23vsPHIW5Miss
Nov 18@LVW4Miss
Nov 4vsARIL5Miss
Oct 26@DENL0Hit
Oct 19vsWSHW7Miss
Oct 12@CARL3Hit
Oct 5@NYJW7Miss
Sep 29vsGB-7Miss
Sep 21@CHIL13Miss
Sep 14vsNYGW9Miss
Sep 5@PHIL5Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 3.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 56% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
