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5 games this season, 10 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
9.5
UNDER
9.5
Our win %
58%
Market %
53%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush Attempts 9.5
DK
1.79
-127
Projection13.2vs9.5(3.7 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
80%
12/15
SZN
80%
12/15
H2H
100%
2/2
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
3.3%
Alpha Score
3
Recommended
1.04u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-8 on HamptonStake 4.18u
◆Best lineBuy down to 9: an exact 9 returns your stake (5% push)
Why this card
›Rush Attempts projection 13.2 vs line 9.5
›Model read P(over) 71% sits 18pp off the market. Rush Attempts has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(over) 53% across 2 books
›Injury kill: LAC has 6 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ LAC has 6 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 9.5)52.8%
Fair price1.89 · -112
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/17, 5:53 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line13.24 vs 9.5
5 games this season, 10 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games15
Current games5
Prior games10
Prior games fetched10
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
9.5
1.79 (-127)1.79
2.00 (+100)2.00
DK implied, with vig (this side): 55.9%
Confidence readOn the fence
58% to hitrange 48-66%price needs 56%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -127 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 3?
TOTAL
3/100
Win prob+38.4/ 55
Calibrated win probability 58%
Market+8.4/ 15
Market consensus 53% on our side
Price+8.2/ 15
3.3% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 55; published as 3 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Buy this over down to 9: an exact 9 returns your stake instead of losing (5% of outcomes), same win chance as the 9.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
9push-safe
71%
5%
25%
1.35 (-289) fair
-
9.5nowbest EV
71%
-
29%
1.79 (-127)
+26.6%
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
LAC
Out · 5
Derwin James Jr.OUT
James (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Donte JacksonOUT
Jackson (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Tre' HarrisOUT
Harris (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Joe AltOUT
out
Kayode AwosikaOUT
out
Questionable / DTD · 5
Brenen ThompsonQ
Thompson (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)4.18u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.04u
EV %3.3%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401873006-OmarionHampton-RUSH_ATTEMPTSPublished 10/17/2026, 9:53:55 AM
5.57
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_ATTEMPTS
games15
current_games5
prior_games10
prior_games_fetched10
current_mean14.60
prior_mean12.50
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor3.50
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4685382
season2026
10
66%
5%
29%
1.44 (-225) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 53% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Rodney ShelleyD
Shelley (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Daiyan HenleyQ
Henley (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Dalvin TomlinsonQ
questionable
Jamaree CaldwellQ
questionable
Other · 15
KeAndre Lambert-Smith?
Lambert-Smith (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against Kansas City.
Kendall Williamson?
Elijah Molden?
Justin Eboigbe?
Quentin Johnston?
Johnston (chest) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Ladd McConkey?
McConkey (foot) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling?
Valdes-Scantling (ribs) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Alec Ingold?
The Chargers placed Ingold on injured reserve Thursday due to a shoulder injury.
Denzel Perryman?
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) won't be reinstated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Jake Browning?
The Chargers signed Browning to the practice squad Tuesday, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Charlie Kolar?
Kolar reeled in three of four targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos. He also lost a fumble.
Keaton Mitchell?
Mitchell took six carries for 11 yards and caught three of four targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos.
Cameron Dicker?
Dicker made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Chargers' 23-17 loss to the Broncos on Sunday.
Kimani Vidal?
Vidal tallied eight carries for 57 yards and one touchdown, one catch (on two targets) for minus-1 yard and returned three kicks for 75 yards during Sunday's 23-17 defeat to the Broncos.
Justin Herbert?
Herbert completed 14 of 24 passes for 121 yards, one touchdown and one interception, reeled off 54 yards on six carries and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 loss to the Broncos.
KC
Out · 2
Josh SimmonsOUT
Simmons (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Rashee RiceOUT
Rice (hamstring/knee) will not play Sunday against the Chargers, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
L'Jarius SneedQ
Sneed (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Other · 22
Xavier Worthy?
Worthy will be the Chiefs' top wideout against the Chargers on Sunday due to the absence of Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee).
Peter Woods?
Tyquan Thornton?
The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Nick Bolton?
Bolton posted nine tackles (four solo) during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Mansoor Delane?
Delane tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Cyrus Allen?
Allen failed to reel in his only target in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Noah Gray?
Gray caught two of his three targets for 17 yards in the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Emmett Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 10 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Garrett Nussmeier?
Diego Pounds?
Jack Pyburn?
Jadon Canady?
Jared Wiley?
Harrison Butker?
Butker converted his only field-goal attempt and all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Travis Kelce?
Kelce caught two of four targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders. He also rushed twice for no gain.
Kenneth Walker III?
Walker rushed 22 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns while catching his only target for two yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Chamarri Conner?
Conner (knee) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Tyreke Smith?
Chris Jones?
Felix Anudike-Uzomah?
Jalen Royals?
Royals caught both of his targets for six yards and a touchdown while logging two tackles on kick coverage in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win against the Colts.
★ RECENT FORM
Omarion Hampton · Rush Attempts vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 14.6
LAST 10
80%
4/5 over · avg 14.6
SEASON
80%
4/5 over · avg 14.6
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.79 (-127) the price needs 56% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-45.0
HOMEKC
4-0
L104-0
StreakW4
Home0-0
Run diff+41.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Omarion Hampton · Rush Attempts vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Oct 11vsDENL14Hit
Oct 4@SEAL9Miss
Sep 27@BUFL15Hit
Sep 20vsLVL23Hit
Sep 13vsARIL12Hit
Jan 12@NEL1Miss
Dec 27vsHOUL14Hit
Dec 21@DALW16Hit
Dec 14@KCW15Hit
Dec 9vsPHIW13Hit
Oct 5vsWSHL12Hit
Sep 28@NYGL12Hit
Sep 21vsDENW19Hit
Sep 16@LVW8Miss
Sep 6vsKCW15Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 9.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 56% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
