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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
29.5
UNDER
29.5
Our win %
54%
Market %
49%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush + Rec Yards 29.5
FD
1.91
-110
Projection35.5vs29.5(6.0 over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
58%
11/19
SZN
58%
11/19
H2H
100%
1/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
3.4%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.94u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 3.78u
Why this card
›Rush + Rec Yards projection 35.5 vs line 29.5
›Model read P(over) 55% sits 6pp off the market. Rush + Rec Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(over) 49% across 1 book
›Baby line: 29.5 is below the 40 floor for Rush + Rec Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: LAC has 6 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ LAC has 6 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 29.5)49.2%
Fair price2.03 · +103
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 6:15 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line35.51 vs 29.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games19
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched14
›All model inputs (19)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD★ Best
29.5
1.91 (-110)1.91
1.85 (-118)1.85
FD implied, with vig (this side): 52.4%
Confidence readOn the fence
54% to hitrange 45-63%price needs 52%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -110 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+27.5/ 55
Calibrated win probability 54%
Market+-2.5/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (49% our side)
Price+8.6/ 15
3.4% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 26; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
The 29.5 is already the best line on the board (5.3% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
29
55%
1%
44%
1.80 (-125) fair
-
29.5nowbest EV
55%
-
45%
1.91 (-110)
+5.3%
30
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
LAC
Out · 5
Derwin James Jr.OUT
James (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Donte JacksonOUT
Jackson (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Tre' HarrisOUT
Harris (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Joe AltOUT
out
Kayode AwosikaOUT
out
Questionable / DTD · 5
Brenen ThompsonQ
Thompson (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)3.78u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.94u
EV %3.4%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401873006-KimaniVidal-RUSH_REC_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:15:23 AM
Variance37.33
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_REC_YARDS
games19
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched14
current_mean22.40
prior_mean59.29
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
variance_floor25
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4430968
season2026
54%
1%
45%
1.83 (-121) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 49% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Rodney ShelleyD
Shelley (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Daiyan HenleyQ
Henley (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Dalvin TomlinsonQ
questionable
Jamaree CaldwellQ
questionable
Other · 15
KeAndre Lambert-Smith?
Lambert-Smith (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against Kansas City.
Kendall Williamson?
Elijah Molden?
Justin Eboigbe?
Quentin Johnston?
Johnston (chest) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Ladd McConkey?
McConkey (foot) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling?
Valdes-Scantling (ribs) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Alec Ingold?
The Chargers placed Ingold on injured reserve Thursday due to a shoulder injury.
Denzel Perryman?
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) won't be reinstated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Jake Browning?
The Chargers signed Browning to the practice squad Tuesday, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Charlie Kolar?
Kolar reeled in three of four targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos. He also lost a fumble.
Keaton Mitchell?
Mitchell took six carries for 11 yards and caught three of four targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos.
Cameron Dicker?
Dicker made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Chargers' 23-17 loss to the Broncos on Sunday.
Kimani Vidal?
Vidal tallied eight carries for 57 yards and one touchdown, one catch (on two targets) for minus-1 yard and returned three kicks for 75 yards during Sunday's 23-17 defeat to the Broncos.
Justin Herbert?
Herbert completed 14 of 24 passes for 121 yards, one touchdown and one interception, reeled off 54 yards on six carries and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 loss to the Broncos.
KC
Out · 2
Josh SimmonsOUT
Simmons (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Rashee RiceOUT
Rice (hamstring/knee) will not play Sunday against the Chargers, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
L'Jarius SneedQ
Sneed (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Other · 22
Xavier Worthy?
Worthy will be the Chiefs' top wideout against the Chargers on Sunday due to the absence of Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee).
Peter Woods?
Tyquan Thornton?
The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Nick Bolton?
Bolton posted nine tackles (four solo) during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Mansoor Delane?
Delane tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Cyrus Allen?
Allen failed to reel in his only target in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Noah Gray?
Gray caught two of his three targets for 17 yards in the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Emmett Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 10 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Garrett Nussmeier?
Diego Pounds?
Jack Pyburn?
Jadon Canady?
Jared Wiley?
Harrison Butker?
Butker converted his only field-goal attempt and all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Travis Kelce?
Kelce caught two of four targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders. He also rushed twice for no gain.
Kenneth Walker III?
Walker rushed 22 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns while catching his only target for two yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Chamarri Conner?
Conner (knee) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Tyreke Smith?
Chris Jones?
Felix Anudike-Uzomah?
Jalen Royals?
Royals caught both of his targets for six yards and a touchdown while logging two tackles on kick coverage in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win against the Colts.
★ RECENT FORM
Kimani Vidal · Rush + Rec Yards vs 29.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 22.4
LAST 10
40%
2/5 over · avg 22.4
SEASON
40%
2/5 over · avg 22.4
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.91 (-110) the price needs 52% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-45.0
HOMEKC
4-0
L104-0
StreakW4
Home0-0
Run diff+41.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Kimani Vidal · Rush + Rec Yards vs 29.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 11vsDENL56Hit
Oct 4@SEAL36Hit
Sep 27@BUFL20Miss
Sep 20vsLVL0Miss
Sep 13vsARIL0Miss
Jan 12@NEL51Hit
Jan 4@DENL10Miss
Dec 21@DALW11Miss
Dec 14@KCW48Hit
Dec 9vsPHIW104Hit
Nov 30vsLVW137Hit
Nov 16@JAXL12Miss
Nov 10vsPITW108Hit
Nov 2@TENW30Hit
Oct 24vsMINW127Hit
Oct 19vsINDL35Hit
Oct 12@MIAW138Hit
Oct 5vsWSHL19Miss
Sep 28@NYGL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 29.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 52% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
