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Keaton Mitchell · Rush + Rec Yards · Bet Data Labs
5 games this season, 13 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
37.5
UNDER
37.5
Our win %
51%
Market %
50%
Edge
+0.9pp
Market
Rush + Rec Yards 37.5
FD
1.88
-113
Projection36.6vs37.5(0.9 under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
56%
10/18
SZN
56%
10/18
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+0.9pp
EV
-3.9%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 4-3 on Mitchell
Why this card
›Rush + Rec Yards projection 36.6 vs line 37.5
›Edge test fails: our 0.9 gap is only 2% of the 37.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 2 books
›Baby line: 37.5 is below the 40 floor for Rush + Rec Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: LAC has 6 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ LAC has 6 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 37.5)50.1%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/17, 6:15 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line36.57 vs 37.5
5 games this season, 13 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games18
Current games5
Prior games13
Prior games fetched13
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
37.5
1.90 (-111)1.90
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD★ Best
37.5
1.87 (-115)1.87
1.88 (-113)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
51% to hitrange 43-59%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 37.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
37
50%
1%
49%
1.98 (-102) fair
-
37.5now
51%
-
49%
1.88 (-113)
-3.9%
38
51%
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-3.9%
Edge %+0.9pp
Card ID: c-401873006-KeatonMitchell-RUSH_REC_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:15:23 AM
25.34
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_REC_YARDS
games18
current_games5
prior_games13
prior_games_fetched13
current_mean37.40
prior_mean31.08
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor25
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4596334
season2026
1%
48%
1.94 (-106) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
LAC
Out · 5
Derwin James Jr.OUT
James (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Donte JacksonOUT
Jackson (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Tre' HarrisOUT
Harris (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Joe AltOUT
out
Kayode AwosikaOUT
out
Questionable / DTD · 5
Brenen ThompsonQ
Thompson (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Rodney ShelleyD
Shelley (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Daiyan HenleyQ
Henley (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Dalvin TomlinsonQ
questionable
Jamaree CaldwellQ
questionable
Other · 15
KeAndre Lambert-Smith?
Lambert-Smith (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against Kansas City.
Kendall Williamson?
Elijah Molden?
Justin Eboigbe?
Quentin Johnston?
Johnston (chest) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Ladd McConkey?
McConkey (foot) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling?
Valdes-Scantling (ribs) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Alec Ingold?
The Chargers placed Ingold on injured reserve Thursday due to a shoulder injury.
Denzel Perryman?
KC
Out · 2
Josh SimmonsOUT
Simmons (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Rashee RiceOUT
Rice (hamstring/knee) will not play Sunday against the Chargers, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
L'Jarius SneedQ
Sneed (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Other · 22
Xavier Worthy?
Worthy will be the Chiefs' top wideout against the Chargers on Sunday due to the absence of Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee).
Peter Woods?
Tyquan Thornton?
The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-45.0
HOMEKC
4-0
L104-0
StreakW4
Home0-0
Run diff+41.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) won't be reinstated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Jake Browning?
The Chargers signed Browning to the practice squad Tuesday, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Charlie Kolar?
Kolar reeled in three of four targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos. He also lost a fumble.
Keaton Mitchell?
Mitchell took six carries for 11 yards and caught three of four targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos.
Cameron Dicker?
Dicker made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Chargers' 23-17 loss to the Broncos on Sunday.
Kimani Vidal?
Vidal tallied eight carries for 57 yards and one touchdown, one catch (on two targets) for minus-1 yard and returned three kicks for 75 yards during Sunday's 23-17 defeat to the Broncos.
Justin Herbert?
Herbert completed 14 of 24 passes for 121 yards, one touchdown and one interception, reeled off 54 yards on six carries and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 loss to the Broncos.
Nick Bolton
?
Bolton posted nine tackles (four solo) during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Mansoor Delane?
Delane tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Cyrus Allen?
Allen failed to reel in his only target in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Noah Gray?
Gray caught two of his three targets for 17 yards in the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Emmett Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 10 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Garrett Nussmeier?
Diego Pounds?
Jack Pyburn?
Jadon Canady?
Jared Wiley?
Harrison Butker?
Butker converted his only field-goal attempt and all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Travis Kelce?
Kelce caught two of four targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders. He also rushed twice for no gain.
Kenneth Walker III?
Walker rushed 22 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns while catching his only target for two yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Chamarri Conner?
Conner (knee) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Tyreke Smith?
Chris Jones?
Felix Anudike-Uzomah?
Jalen Royals?
Royals caught both of his targets for six yards and a touchdown while logging two tackles on kick coverage in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win against the Colts.
★ RECENT FORM
Keaton Mitchell · Rush + Rec Yards vs 37.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 37.4
LAST 10
40%
2/5 under · avg 37.4
SEASON
40%
2/5 under · avg 37.4
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Keaton Mitchell · Rush + Rec Yards vs 37.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Oct 11vsDENL29Hit
Oct 4@SEAL63Miss
Sep 27@BUFL47Miss
Sep 20vsLVL39Miss
Sep 13vsARIL9Hit
Jan 5@PITL2Hit
Dec 28@GBW38Miss
Dec 22vsNEL13Hit
Dec 14@CINW66Miss
Dec 7vsPITL76Miss
Nov 28vsCINL31Hit
Nov 23vsNYJW19Hit
Nov 16@CLEW54Miss
Nov 9@MINW31Hit
Oct 31@MIAW18Hit
Oct 26vsCHIW43Miss
Oct 12vsLARL0Hit
Oct 5vsHOUL13Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 37.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
