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KeAndre Lambert-Smith · Anytime TD · Bet Data Labs
1 game this season, 10 games last season, 20% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
10%
Market %
5%
Edge
+5.5pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
DK
23.00
+2200
Projection0.1vs0.5(0.4 under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
9%
1/11
SZN
9%
1/11
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+5.5pp
EV
133.8%
Alpha Score
17
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 5.00u
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-45.0
HOMEKC
4-0
L104-0
StreakW4
Home0-0
Run diff+41.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
LAC
Out · 7
Rodney ShelleyOUT
Shelley (hamstring) won't suit up for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Bud DupreeOUT
Dupree (neck) won't play in Sunday's game against Kansas City.
Tre' HarrisOUT
inactive
Donte JacksonOUT
inactive
Derwin James Jr.OUT
inactive
Kayode AwosikaOUT
inactive
Joe AltOUT
Alt (neck), who has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, received favorable news after recently being evaluated by a specialist and is expected to ramp up his activity during the Chargers' Week 7 bye, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Confidence readClears
10% to hitrange 6-15%price needs 4%
Even at the low end of our projection this still beats the price. The whole range is profitable.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +2200 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 8% from 0.08 TD per game over 11 games, priced P(yes) 10%
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.4 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 5% across 6 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: player QUESTIONABLE: KeAndre Lambert-Smith · LAC has 6 OUT
›Watch only: this side hit 4 or fewer of its last 10, and cold-form props have lost (46.5% on 11,790 graded)
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ player QUESTIONABLE: KeAndre Lambert-Smith
⚠ LAC has 6 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)4.7%
Fair price21.44 · +2044
Books de-vigged6
Pulled10/18, 4:15 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 6 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.08 vs 0.5
1 game this season, 10 games last season, 20% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games1
Prior games10
Prior games fetched10
Current mean0
Prior mean0.100
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
KeAndre Lambert-Smith · Over the number
model projects 0.08
The best move
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (471.5% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
25%
-
75%
23.00 (+2200)
(+471.5%)
1
2%
22%
75%
32.85 (+3185) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
Outcome
LOSS
Actual
0
line 0.5
Units
-1.00u
Price CLV vs close: -26.1% - entry +1600 → close +2200 · 105 snapshots
0.41
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games1
prior_games10
prior_games_fetched10
current_mean0
prior_mean0.100
current_weight0.200
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games11
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.080
player_espn_id4430870
season2026
push
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
23.00 (+2200)23.00
- (0)1.00
FD
0.5
23.00 (+2200)23.00
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
21.00 (+2000)21.00
- (0)1.00
DK implied, with vig (this side): 4.3%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 0; published as 17 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
McConkey won't return to Sunday's game at Kansas City due to a concussion.
Other · 17ShowHide
Quentin Johnston?
Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs.
Justin Herbert?
Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards.
Omarion Hampton?
Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs.
Brenen Thompson?
Thompson (quadriceps) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Daiyan Henley?
Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith?
Lambert-Smith (hamstring) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Jamaree Caldwell?
Dalvin Tomlinson?
Kendall Williamson?
Elijah Molden?
Justin Eboigbe?
Alec Ingold?
The Chargers placed Ingold on injured reserve Thursday due to a shoulder injury.
Denzel Perryman?
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) won't be reinstated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Jake Browning?
The Chargers signed Browning to the practice squad Tuesday, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Charlie Kolar?
Kolar reeled in three of four targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos. He also lost a fumble.
Keaton Mitchell?
Mitchell took six carries for 11 yards and caught three of four targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos.
Cameron Dicker?
Dicker made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Chargers' 23-17 loss to the Broncos on Sunday.
KC
Out · 7
Josh SimmonsOUT
inactive
Jared WileyOUT
inactive
Garrett NussmeierOUT
inactive
Diego PoundsOUT
inactive
Jack PyburnOUT
inactive
Rashee RiceOUT
inactive
Jadon CanadyOUT
inactive
Questionable / DTD · 1
Jaylon MooreQ
Moore (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Other · 17ShowHide
Travis Kelce?
Kelce caught four of five targets for 53 yards during Sunday's 22-6 win over the Chargers.
Xavier Worthy?
Worthy totaled seven catches on as many targets for 73 yards during Sunday's 22-6 victory versus the Chargers.
Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes completed 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, no touchdowns and one interception and rushed five times for 16 yards during Sunday's 22-6 win versus the Chargers.
Kenneth Walker III?
Walker ripped off 128 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries and added two catches (on three targets) for 11 yards during Sunday's 22-6 win against the Chargers.
L'Jarius Sneed?
Sneed (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chargers, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports.
Justin Watson?
The Chiefs elevated Watson from the practice squad Saturday ahead of Sunday's game against the Chargers, Matt Derrick of ChiefsDigest.com reports.
Andrew Armstrong
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
KeAndre Lambert-Smith · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
0%
0/1 over · avg 0.0
LAST 10
0%
0/1 over · avg 0.0
SEASON
0%
0/1 over · avg 0.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 23.00 (+2200) the price needs 4% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
?
The Chiefs have elevated Armstrong from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's game against the Chargers, Matt Derrick of ChiefsDigest.com reports.
Peter Woods?
Tyquan Thornton?
The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Nick Bolton?
Bolton posted nine tackles (four solo) during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Mansoor Delane?
Delane tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Cyrus Allen?
Allen failed to reel in his only target in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Noah Gray?
Gray caught two of his three targets for 17 yards in the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Emmett Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 10 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Harrison Butker?
Butker converted his only field-goal attempt and all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Chamarri Conner?
Conner (knee) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Tyreke Smith?
Game log
KeAndre Lambert-Smith · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
20%1/5 over
Line 0.5
1
0
0
0
0
KCDALHOUDENARI
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Sep 13vsARIL0Miss
Jan 4@DENL0Miss
Dec 27vsHOUL0Miss
Dec 21@DALW0Miss
Dec 14@KCW1Hit
Nov 2@TENW0Miss
Oct 12@MIAW0Miss
Oct 5vsWSHL0Miss
Sep 28@NYGL0Miss
Sep 16@LVW0Miss
Sep 6vsKCW0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 4% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
