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5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
24.5
UNDER
24.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.5pp
Market
Rushing Yards 24.5
DK
1.92
-109
Projection32.2vs24.5(7.7 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
SZN
59%
13/22
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
49%
n=1864
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards over plays: 49% of 1864 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.5pp
EV
-9.4%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 6-10 on Herbert
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 32.2 vs line 24.5
›Model read P(over) 59% sits 9pp off the market. Rushing Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: 31% looks big, but the actual gap is only 7.7 and Rushing Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 1864 graded, of which 934 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.5pp.
›Baby line: 24.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: LAC has 6 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ LAC has 6 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1864 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 934 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 24.5)49.8%
Fair price2.01 · +101
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/17, 6:37 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line32.20 vs 24.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean28.40
Prior mean32.60
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
24.5
1.92 (-109)1.92
1.87 (-115)1.87
FD
24.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 52.2%
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 39-55%price needs 52%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -109 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 24.5 is already the best line on the board (12.4% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
24
59%
1%
40%
1.68 (-146) fair
-
24.5nowbest EV
59%
-
41%
1.92 (-109)
+12.4%
25
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
LAC
Out · 5
Derwin James Jr.OUT
James (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Donte JacksonOUT
Jackson (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Tre' HarrisOUT
Harris (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Joe AltOUT
out
Kayode AwosikaOUT
out
Questionable / DTD · 5
Brenen ThompsonQ
Thompson (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-9.4%
Edge %-2.5pp
Card ID: c-401873006-JustinHerbert-RUSHING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:37:14 AM
22.50
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean28.40
prior_mean32.60
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games22
player_espn_id4038941
season2026
58%
1%
41%
1.72 (-139) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Rodney ShelleyD
Shelley (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Daiyan HenleyQ
Henley (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Dalvin TomlinsonQ
questionable
Jamaree CaldwellQ
questionable
Other · 15
KeAndre Lambert-Smith?
Lambert-Smith (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against Kansas City.
Kendall Williamson?
Elijah Molden?
Justin Eboigbe?
Quentin Johnston?
Johnston (chest) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Ladd McConkey?
McConkey (foot) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling?
Valdes-Scantling (ribs) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Alec Ingold?
The Chargers placed Ingold on injured reserve Thursday due to a shoulder injury.
Denzel Perryman?
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) won't be reinstated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Jake Browning?
The Chargers signed Browning to the practice squad Tuesday, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Charlie Kolar?
Kolar reeled in three of four targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos. He also lost a fumble.
Keaton Mitchell?
Mitchell took six carries for 11 yards and caught three of four targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos.
Cameron Dicker?
Dicker made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Chargers' 23-17 loss to the Broncos on Sunday.
Kimani Vidal?
Vidal tallied eight carries for 57 yards and one touchdown, one catch (on two targets) for minus-1 yard and returned three kicks for 75 yards during Sunday's 23-17 defeat to the Broncos.
Justin Herbert?
Herbert completed 14 of 24 passes for 121 yards, one touchdown and one interception, reeled off 54 yards on six carries and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 loss to the Broncos.
KC
Out · 2
Josh SimmonsOUT
Simmons (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Rashee RiceOUT
Rice (hamstring/knee) will not play Sunday against the Chargers, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
L'Jarius SneedQ
Sneed (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Other · 22
Xavier Worthy?
Worthy will be the Chiefs' top wideout against the Chargers on Sunday due to the absence of Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee).
Peter Woods?
Tyquan Thornton?
The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Nick Bolton?
Bolton posted nine tackles (four solo) during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Mansoor Delane?
Delane tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Cyrus Allen?
Allen failed to reel in his only target in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Noah Gray?
Gray caught two of his three targets for 17 yards in the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Emmett Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 10 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Garrett Nussmeier?
Diego Pounds?
Jack Pyburn?
Jadon Canady?
Jared Wiley?
Harrison Butker?
Butker converted his only field-goal attempt and all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Travis Kelce?
Kelce caught two of four targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders. He also rushed twice for no gain.
Kenneth Walker III?
Walker rushed 22 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns while catching his only target for two yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Chamarri Conner?
Conner (knee) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Tyreke Smith?
Chris Jones?
Felix Anudike-Uzomah?
Jalen Royals?
Royals caught both of his targets for six yards and a touchdown while logging two tackles on kick coverage in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win against the Colts.
★ RECENT FORM
Justin Herbert · Rushing Yards vs 24.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 28.4
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 28.4
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 28.4
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.92 (-109) the price needs 52% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-45.0
HOMEKC
4-0
L104-0
StreakW4
Home0-0
Run diff+41.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Justin Herbert · Rushing Yards vs 24.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Oct 11vsDENL54Hit
Oct 4@SEAL40Hit
Sep 27@BUFL17Miss
Sep 20vsLVL2Miss
Sep 13vsARIL29Hit
Jan 12@NEL57Hit
Dec 27vsHOUL37Hit
Dec 21@DALW42Hit
Dec 14@KCW0Miss
Dec 9vsPHIW66Hit
Nov 30vsLVW8Miss
Nov 16@JAXL21Miss
Nov 10vsPITW19Miss
Nov 2@TENW57Hit
Oct 24vsMINW62Hit
Oct 19vsINDL31Hit
Oct 12@MIAW2Miss
Oct 5vsWSHL60Hit
Sep 28@NYGL24Miss
Sep 21vsDENW6Miss
Sep 16@LVW31Hit
Sep 6vsKCW32Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 24.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 52% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards over) hit 49.0% over 1,864 graded cards, 1,860 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
