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3 games this season, 6 games last season, 67% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
5.5
UNDER
5.5
Our win %
54%
Market %
50%
Edge
+3.9pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 5.5
DK
1.87
-115
Projection5.2vs5.5(0.3 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
81%
13/16
SZN
81%
13/16
H2H
100%
1/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+3.9pp
EV
1.4%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.41u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 1.62u
◆Best lineBuy up to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake (12% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-45.0
HOMEKC
4-0
L104-0
StreakW4
Home0-0
Run diff+41.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Confidence readOn the fence
54% to hitrange 47-61%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -115 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 5.2 vs line 5.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 1 book
›Injury kill: LAC has 6 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ LAC has 6 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 5.5)50.3%
Fair price2.01 · +101
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 4:15 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line5.16 vs 5.5
3 games this season, 6 games last season, 67% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games16
Current games3
Prior games6
Prior games fetched13
›All model inputs (19)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Elijah Molden · Under the number
model projects 5.16
The best move
Buy this under up to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake instead of losing (12% of outcomes), same win chance as the 5.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
5
42%
12%
46%
2.09 (+109) fair
-
5.5nowbest EV
54%
-
46%
1.87 (-115)
+1.4%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+27.7/ 55
Calibrated win probability 54%
Market+0.9/ 15
Market consensus 50% on our side
Price+3.5/ 15
1.4% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 32; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
5.5
1.89 (-112)1.89
1.87 (-115)1.87
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.5%
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)1.62u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.41u
EV %1.4%
Edge %+3.9pp
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
LAC
Out · 7
Rodney ShelleyOUT
Shelley (hamstring) won't suit up for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Bud DupreeOUT
Dupree (neck) won't play in Sunday's game against Kansas City.
Tre' HarrisOUT
inactive
Donte JacksonOUT
inactive
Derwin James Jr.OUT
inactive
Kayode AwosikaOUT
inactive
Joe AltOUT
Alt (neck), who has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, received favorable news after recently being evaluated by a specialist and is expected to ramp up his activity during the Chargers' Week 7 bye, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Ladd McConkeyQ
McConkey won't return to Sunday's game at Kansas City due to a concussion.
Other · 17ShowHide
Quentin Johnston?
Johnston caught one of three targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs.
Justin Herbert?
Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards.
Omarion Hampton?
Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs.
Brenen Thompson?
Thompson (quadriceps) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Daiyan Henley?
Henley (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith?
Lambert-Smith (hamstring) is active for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Jamaree Caldwell?
KC
Out · 7
Josh SimmonsOUT
inactive
Jared WileyOUT
inactive
Garrett NussmeierOUT
inactive
Diego PoundsOUT
inactive
Jack PyburnOUT
inactive
Rashee RiceOUT
inactive
Jadon CanadyOUT
inactive
Questionable / DTD · 1
Jaylon MooreQ
Moore (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Dalvin Tomlinson
?
Kendall Williamson?
Elijah Molden?
Justin Eboigbe?
Alec Ingold?
The Chargers placed Ingold on injured reserve Thursday due to a shoulder injury.
Denzel Perryman?
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) won't be reinstated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Jake Browning?
The Chargers signed Browning to the practice squad Tuesday, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Charlie Kolar?
Kolar reeled in three of four targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos. He also lost a fumble.
Keaton Mitchell?
Mitchell took six carries for 11 yards and caught three of four targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos.
Cameron Dicker?
Dicker made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Chargers' 23-17 loss to the Broncos on Sunday.
Other · 17ShowHide
Travis Kelce?
Kelce caught four of five targets for 53 yards during Sunday's 22-6 win over the Chargers.
Xavier Worthy?
Worthy totaled seven catches on as many targets for 73 yards during Sunday's 22-6 victory versus the Chargers.
Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes completed 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, no touchdowns and one interception and rushed five times for 16 yards during Sunday's 22-6 win versus the Chargers.
Kenneth Walker III?
Walker ripped off 128 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries and added two catches (on three targets) for 11 yards during Sunday's 22-6 win against the Chargers.
L'Jarius Sneed?
Sneed (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Chargers, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports.
Justin Watson?
The Chiefs elevated Watson from the practice squad Saturday ahead of Sunday's game against the Chargers, Matt Derrick of ChiefsDigest.com reports.
Andrew Armstrong?
The Chiefs have elevated Armstrong from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's game against the Chargers, Matt Derrick of ChiefsDigest.com reports.
Peter Woods?
Tyquan Thornton?
The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Nick Bolton?
Bolton posted nine tackles (four solo) during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Mansoor Delane?
Delane tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Cyrus Allen?
Allen failed to reel in his only target in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Noah Gray?
Gray caught two of his three targets for 17 yards in the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Emmett Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 10 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Harrison Butker?
Butker converted his only field-goal attempt and all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Chamarri Conner?
Conner (knee) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Tyreke Smith?
★ RECENT FORM
Elijah Molden · Tackles + Assists vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
50%
2/4 under · avg 6.0
LAST 10
50%
2/4 under · avg 6.0
SEASON
50%
2/4 under · avg 6.0
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.87 (-115) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Elijah Molden · Tackles + Assists vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
60%3/5 under
Line 5.5
2
5
5
7
7
NEARISEADENKC
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 18@KCL7Miss
Oct 11vsDENL7Miss
Oct 4@SEAL5Hit
Sep 13vsARIL5Hit
Jan 12@NEL2Hit
Dec 27vsHOUL3Hit
Dec 21@DALW3Hit
Dec 9vsPHIW4Hit
Nov 30vsLVW5Hit
Nov 16@JAXL7Miss
Nov 10vsPITW5Hit
Nov 2@TENW4Hit
Oct 24vsMINW1Hit
Oct 12@MIAW6Miss
Oct 5vsWSHL5Hit
Sep 28@NYGL5Hit
Sep 6vsKCW4Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 5.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
◆ GRADED · 2026-10-18
This card is settled.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
Outcome
LOSS
Actual
7
line 5.5
Units
-1.00u
Price CLV vs close: +5.9% - entry -102 → close -115 · 105 snapshots
