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4 games this season, 17 games last season, 50% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
5%
Market %
7%
Edge
-1.9pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
DK
16.00
+1500
Projection0.0vs0.5(0.5 under)
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
5%
1/20
SZN
5%
1/21
H2H
0%
0/2
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-1.9pp
EV
-14.2%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 3% from 0.03 TD per game over 21 games, priced P(yes) 5%
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.5 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 7% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Opponent LAC missing 6, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)7.3%
Fair price13.75 · +1275
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/17, 7:00 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.03 vs 0.5
4 games this season, 17 games last season, 50% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games4
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean0
Prior mean0.059
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
16.00 (+1500)16.00
- (0)1.00
FD
0.5
12.00 (+1100)12.00
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
11.00 (+1000)11.00
- (0)1.00
DK implied, with vig (this side): 6.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
5% to hitrange 1-10%price needs 6%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +1500 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (268.7% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
23%
-
77%
16.00 (+1500)
(+268.7%)
1
2%
21%
77%
35.01 (+3401) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
LAC
Out · 5
Derwin James Jr.OUT
James (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Donte JacksonOUT
Jackson (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Tre' HarrisOUT
Harris (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Joe AltOUT
out
Kayode AwosikaOUT
out
Questionable / DTD · 5
Brenen ThompsonQ
Thompson (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-14.2%
Edge %-1.9pp
Card ID: c-401873006-BrashardSmith-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/17/2026, 11:00:09 AM
0.44
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games4
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean0
prior_mean0.059
current_weight0.500
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games21
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.029
player_espn_id4596602
season2026
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Rodney ShelleyD
Shelley (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Daiyan HenleyQ
Henley (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Dalvin TomlinsonQ
questionable
Jamaree CaldwellQ
questionable
Other · 15
KeAndre Lambert-Smith?
Lambert-Smith (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against Kansas City.
Kendall Williamson?
Elijah Molden?
Justin Eboigbe?
Quentin Johnston?
Johnston (chest) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Ladd McConkey?
McConkey (foot) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling?
Valdes-Scantling (ribs) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Alec Ingold?
The Chargers placed Ingold on injured reserve Thursday due to a shoulder injury.
Denzel Perryman?
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) won't be reinstated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Jake Browning?
The Chargers signed Browning to the practice squad Tuesday, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Charlie Kolar?
Kolar reeled in three of four targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos. He also lost a fumble.
Keaton Mitchell?
Mitchell took six carries for 11 yards and caught three of four targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos.
Cameron Dicker?
Dicker made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Chargers' 23-17 loss to the Broncos on Sunday.
Kimani Vidal?
Vidal tallied eight carries for 57 yards and one touchdown, one catch (on two targets) for minus-1 yard and returned three kicks for 75 yards during Sunday's 23-17 defeat to the Broncos.
Justin Herbert?
Herbert completed 14 of 24 passes for 121 yards, one touchdown and one interception, reeled off 54 yards on six carries and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 loss to the Broncos.
KC
Out · 2
Josh SimmonsOUT
Simmons (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Rashee RiceOUT
Rice (hamstring/knee) will not play Sunday against the Chargers, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
L'Jarius SneedQ
Sneed (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Other · 22
Xavier Worthy?
Worthy will be the Chiefs' top wideout against the Chargers on Sunday due to the absence of Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee).
Peter Woods?
Tyquan Thornton?
The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Nick Bolton?
Bolton posted nine tackles (four solo) during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Mansoor Delane?
Delane tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Cyrus Allen?
Allen failed to reel in his only target in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Noah Gray?
Gray caught two of his three targets for 17 yards in the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Emmett Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 10 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Garrett Nussmeier?
Diego Pounds?
Jack Pyburn?
Jadon Canady?
Jared Wiley?
Harrison Butker?
Butker converted his only field-goal attempt and all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Travis Kelce?
Kelce caught two of four targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders. He also rushed twice for no gain.
Kenneth Walker III?
Walker rushed 22 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns while catching his only target for two yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Chamarri Conner?
Conner (knee) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Tyreke Smith?
Chris Jones?
Felix Anudike-Uzomah?
Jalen Royals?
Royals caught both of his targets for six yards and a touchdown while logging two tackles on kick coverage in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win against the Colts.
★ RECENT FORM
Brashard Smith · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
0%
0/4 over · avg 0.0
LAST 10
0%
0/4 over · avg 0.0
SEASON
0%
0/4 over · avg 0.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 16.00 (+1500) the price needs 6% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-45.0
HOMEKC
4-0
L104-0
StreakW4
Home0-0
Run diff+41.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Brashard Smith · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
0%0/5 over
Oct 4@LVW0Miss
Sep 27@MIAW0Miss
Sep 21vsINDW0Miss
Sep 15vsDENW0Miss
Jan 4@LVL0Miss
Dec 26vsDENL1Hit
Dec 21@TENL0Miss
Dec 14vsLACL0Miss
Dec 8vsHOUL0Miss
Nov 27@DALL0Miss
Nov 23vsINDW0Miss
Nov 16@DENL0Miss
Nov 2@BUFL0Miss
Oct 28vsWSHW0Miss
Oct 19vsLVW0Miss
Oct 13vsDETW0Miss
Oct 7@JAXL0Miss
Sep 28vsBALW0Miss
Sep 22@NYGW0Miss
Sep 14vsPHIL0Miss
Sep 6@LACL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 6% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
