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4 games this season, 17 games last season, 50% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
4.5
UNDER
4.5
Our win %
48%
Market %
43%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 4.5
DK
2.16
+116
Projection4.9vs4.5(0.4 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
52%
11/21
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
4.7%
Alpha Score
12
Recommended
1.02u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 4.08u
◆Best lineBuy down to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake (12% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYLAC
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-45.0
HOMEKC
4-0
L104-0
StreakW4
Home0-0
Run diff+41.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
LAC
Out · 5
Derwin James Jr.OUT
James (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Donte JacksonOUT
Jackson (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Tre' HarrisOUT
Harris (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Joe AltOUT
out
Kayode AwosikaOUT
out
Questionable / DTD · 6
Brenen ThompsonQ
Thompson (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Confidence readOn the fence
48% to hitrange 40-57%price needs 46%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +116 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 4.9 vs line 4.5
›Model read P(over) 55% sits 11pp off the market. Tackles + Assists has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 43% across 1 book
›Opponent LAC missing 6, context on this card and not a knock against it
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 4.5)43.5%
Fair price2.30 · +130
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 8:38 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line4.86 vs 4.5
4 games this season, 17 games last season, 50% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games21
Current games4
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Alohi Gilman · Over the number
model projects 4.86
The best move
Buy this over down to 4: an exact 4 returns your stake instead of losing (12% of outcomes), same win chance as the 4.5.
Card ID: c-401873006-AlohiGilman-TACKLES_ASSISTSPublished 10/18/2026, 12:38:06 AM
2.23
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games21
current_games4
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean4.25
prior_mean5.29
current_weight0.500
role_shift0
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4039413
season2026
5
42%
13%
45%
2.08 (+108) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 44% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
4.5
2.16 (+116)2.16
1.66 (-151)1.66
DK implied, with vig (this side): 46.3%
Line history
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EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)4.08u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.02u
EV %4.7%
Edge %+5.0pp
Rodney ShelleyD
Shelley (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
KeAndre Lambert-SmithQ
Lambert-Smith (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against Kansas City.
Daiyan HenleyQ
Henley (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs.
Dalvin TomlinsonQ
questionable
Jamaree CaldwellQ
questionable
Other · 14
Kendall Williamson?
Elijah Molden?
Justin Eboigbe?
Quentin Johnston?
Johnston (chest) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Ladd McConkey?
McConkey (foot) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling?
Valdes-Scantling (ribs) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Alec Ingold?
The Chargers placed Ingold on injured reserve Thursday due to a shoulder injury.
Denzel Perryman?
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) won't be reinstated from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Jake Browning?
The Chargers signed Browning to the practice squad Tuesday, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Charlie Kolar?
Kolar reeled in three of four targets for 37 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos. He also lost a fumble.
Keaton Mitchell?
Mitchell took six carries for 11 yards and caught three of four targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 23-17 loss versus the Broncos.
Cameron Dicker?
Dicker made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Chargers' 23-17 loss to the Broncos on Sunday.
Kimani Vidal?
Vidal tallied eight carries for 57 yards and one touchdown, one catch (on two targets) for minus-1 yard and returned three kicks for 75 yards during Sunday's 23-17 defeat to the Broncos.
Justin Herbert?
Herbert completed 14 of 24 passes for 121 yards, one touchdown and one interception, reeled off 54 yards on six carries and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 loss to the Broncos.
KC
Out · 2
Josh SimmonsOUT
Simmons (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Rashee RiceOUT
Rice (hamstring/knee) will not play Sunday against the Chargers, Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
L'Jarius SneedQ
Sneed (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Other · 22
Xavier Worthy?
Worthy will be the Chiefs' top wideout against the Chargers on Sunday due to the absence of Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee).
Peter Woods?
Tyquan Thornton?
The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Nick Bolton?
Bolton posted nine tackles (four solo) during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Mansoor Delane?
Delane tallied 10 tackles (seven solo) and one pass defense during the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Cyrus Allen?
Allen failed to reel in his only target in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Noah Gray?
Gray caught two of his three targets for 17 yards in the Chiefs' 30-27 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Emmett Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 10 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Garrett Nussmeier?
Diego Pounds?
Jack Pyburn?
Jadon Canady?
Jared Wiley?
Harrison Butker?
Butker converted his only field-goal attempt and all three of his PATs during Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Travis Kelce?
Kelce caught two of four targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders. He also rushed twice for no gain.
Kenneth Walker III?
Walker rushed 22 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns while catching his only target for two yards in Sunday's 30-27 win over the Raiders.
Chamarri Conner?
Conner (knee) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Tyreke Smith?
Chris Jones?
Felix Anudike-Uzomah?
Jalen Royals?
Royals caught both of his targets for six yards and a touchdown while logging two tackles on kick coverage in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win against the Colts.
★ RECENT FORM
Alohi Gilman · Tackles + Assists vs 4.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
50%
2/4 over · avg 4.3
LAST 10
50%
2/4 over · avg 4.3
SEASON
50%
2/4 over · avg 4.3
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.16 (+116) the price needs 46% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Alohi Gilman · Tackles + Assists vs 4.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 4.5
8
3
5
6
3
PITDENINDMIALV
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 4@LVW3Miss
Sep 27@MIAW6Hit
Sep 21vsINDW5Hit
Sep 15vsDENW3Miss
Jan 5@PITL8Hit
Dec 28@GBW3Miss
Dec 22vsNEL8Hit
Dec 14@CINW8Hit
Dec 7vsPITL7Hit
Nov 28vsCINL8Hit
Nov 23vsNYJW1Miss
Nov 16@CLEW6Hit
Nov 9@MINW3Miss
Oct 31@MIAW4Miss
Oct 26vsCHIW5Hit
Oct 12vsLARL7Hit
Oct 5vsWSHL4Miss
Sep 28@NYGL4Miss
Sep 21vsDENW2Miss
Sep 16@LVW3Miss
Sep 6vsKCW9Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 4.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 46% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
