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5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
38.5
UNDER
38.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.8pp
Market
Receiving Yards 38.5
DK
1.88
-113
Projection45.9vs38.5(7.4 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
50%
11/22
H2H
-
ACC
49%
n=4242
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards over plays: 49% of 4242 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.8pp
EV
-10.7%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 3-3 on Tucker
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 45.9 vs line 38.5
›Model read P(over) 58% sits 7pp off the market. Receiving Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: 19% looks big, but the actual gap is only 7.4 and Receiving Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 3 books
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 4242 graded, of which 2125 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.8pp.
›Baby line: 38.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 4242 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 2125 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.8pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 38.5)50.2%
Fair price1.99 · -101
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/17, 6:15 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line45.90 vs 38.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean54.80
Prior mean40.90
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
38.5
1.88 (-113)1.88
1.90 (-111)1.90
FD
38.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 38-57%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 38.5 is already the best line on the board (8.4% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
38
58%
1%
41%
1.72 (-139) fair
-
38.5nowbest EV
58%
-
42%
1.88 (-113)
+8.4%
39
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-10.7%
Edge %-2.8pp
Card ID: c-401873005-TreTucker-RECEIVING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:15:24 AM
30.60
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean54.80
prior_mean40.90
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games22
player_espn_id4428718
season2026
57%
1%
42%
1.75 (-133) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBUF
4-1
L104-1
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMELV
3-2
L103-2
StreakL2
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards over) hit 49.3% over 4,242 graded cards, 4,234 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BUF
Questionable / DTD · 6
Ed OliverQ
Oliver (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dee AlfordQ
Alford (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Joshua PalmerQ
Palmer (shoulder) and DJ Moore (shoulder) are listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
DJ MooreQ
Moore (shoulder) will be listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News reports.
T.J. SandersQ
questionable
Te'Cory CouchQ
Couch suffered a hamstring injury Sunday versus New England and is doubtful to return.
Other · 19
Ty Johnson?
Johnson (hamstring) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Spencer Brown?
Landon Jackson?
Jackson (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough practice.
Ray Davis?
Davis caught his lone target for 31 yards while adding two carries for two yards and three kickoff returns for 114 yards during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Mike Danna?
Danna re-signed with the Bills on Tuesday.
Keon Coleman?
Coleman caught a seven-yard touchdown pass on two targets during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Jude Bowry?
Ar'maj Reed-Adams?
Dalton Kincaid?
Kincaid brought in one of two targets for seven yards and recorded a two-point conversion catch in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
LV
Out · 1
Tonka HemingwayOUT
Hemingway (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Trey Zuhn IIIQ
questionable
Other · 23
Carter Runyon?
Runyon (lower body) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.?
Thornton (hamstring) won't be activated from injured reserve for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Nailor?
Nailor (concussion) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Folorunso Fatukasi?
Khalil Shakir
?
Shakir brought in all three targets for 80 yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Josh Allen?
Allen completed 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding 10 carries for 121 yards and another score and a two-point conversion pass in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win against the Rams on Monday night.
James Cook III?
Cook rushed 10 times for 121 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for seven yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night. He also committed two fumbles, losing one.
Davison Igbinosun?
Even with Christian Benford (toe) back from injury, Igbinosun is still expected to have a role in the Bills' secondary for Monday's game against the Rams, Nick Suss of ESPN.com reports.
Christian Benford?
Benford (toe) does not carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Rams, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.
Skyler Bell?
Bell will make his NFL regular-season debut against the Rams on Monday due to the absence of Joshua Palmer (shoulder), Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Greg Rousseau?
Rousseau logged four tackles (two solo) and two passes defensed in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Dawson Knox?
Knox caught both of his targets for 13 yards in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Jalon Kilgore?
Tyler Bass?
Bass went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 29-26 loss to the Patriots.
Brock Bowers?
Bowers (knee) practiced fully Thursday. Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.
Patrick Johnson?
Johnson (stinger/neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Ashton Jeanty?
Jeanty (foot) was listed as a full participant on Wednesday's injury report, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Cody White?
White caught two of four passes for 44 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Michael Mayer?
Mayer caught his only target for two yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Mike Washington Jr.?
Washington logged a five-yard carry and caught his lone target for five yards during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Aidan O'Connell?
Dalton Johnson?
Tristin McCollum?
JJ Pegues?
Matt Gay?
Gay went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted both of his extra-point tries during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Tre Tucker?
Tucker caught four of five targets for 41 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Dylan Laube?
Laube rushed four times for nine yards and a touchdown while also reeling in all three of his targets for 16 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to New England.
Fernando Mendoza?
Mendoza completed six of eight passes for 48 yards without a touchdown or turnover in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots. He added three yards on his only carry.
Kirk Cousins?
Cousins completed 19 of 28 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Spencer Burford?
Jackson Powers-Johnson?
Powers-Johnson (groin) was a full participant in practice Thursday.
Quay Walker?
Walker registered six tackles (four solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Raiders' 30-27 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Darrell Luter Jr.?
★ RECENT FORM
Tre Tucker · Receiving Yards vs 38.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 54.8
LAST 10
80%
4/5 over · avg 54.8
SEASON
80%
4/5 over · avg 54.8
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Game log
Tre Tucker · Receiving Yards vs 38.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Oct 11@NEL41Hit
Oct 4vsKCL44Hit
Sep 27@NOW43Hit
Sep 20@LACW119Hit
Sep 13vsMIAW27Miss
Jan 4vsKCW30Miss
Dec 28vsNYGL49Hit
Dec 21@HOUL43Hit
Dec 14@PHIL0Miss
Dec 7vsDENL24Miss
Nov 30@LACL20Miss
Nov 23vsCLEL28Miss
Nov 18vsDALL47Hit
Nov 7@DENL28Miss
Nov 2vsJAXL38Miss
Oct 19@KCL33Miss
Oct 12vsTENW70Hit
Oct 5@INDL62Hit
Sep 28vsCHIL13Miss
Sep 21@WSHL145Hit
Sep 16vsLACL12Miss
Sep 7@NEW54Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 38.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
