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5 games this season, 19 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
104.5
UNDER
104.5
Our win %
55%
Market %
50%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush + Rec Yards 104.5
DK
1.88
-113
Projection113.0vs104.5(8.5 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
SZN
63%
15/24
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
3.7%
Alpha Score
39
Recommended
1.04u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 10-2 on CookStake 4.15u
Why this card
›Rush + Rec Yards projection 113.0 vs line 104.5
›Model read P(over) 56% sits 6pp off the market. Rush + Rec Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: our 8.5 gap is only 8% of the 104.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 3 books
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 104.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/17, 6:15 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line113.05 vs 104.5
5 games this season, 19 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games24
Current games5
Prior games19
Prior games fetched19
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
104.5
1.88 (-113)1.88
1.88 (-113)1.88
FD
104.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
55% to hitrange 44-65%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 104.5 is already the best line on the board (6.4% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
104
56%
1%
43%
1.76 (-132) fair
-
104.5nowbest EV
56%
-
44%
1.88 (-113)
+6.4%
105
Line history
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Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)4.15u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.04u
EV %3.7%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401873005-JamesCook-RUSH_REC_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:15:24 AM
45.91
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_REC_YARDS
games24
current_games5
prior_games19
prior_games_fetched19
current_mean112.60
prior_mean110.74
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor25
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4379399
season2026
56%
1%
44%
1.78 (-128) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
★ RECENT FORM
James Cook · Rush + Rec Yards vs 104.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 112.6
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 112.6
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 112.6
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBUF
4-1
L104-1
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMELV
3-2
L103-2
StreakL2
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
James Cook · Rush + Rec Yards vs 104.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Oct 13@LARW118Hit
Oct 4vsNEL83Miss
Sep 27vsLACW154Hit
Sep 18vsDETW139Hit
Sep 13@HOUW69Miss
Jan 17@DENL141Hit
Jan 11@JAXW51Miss
Jan 4vsNYJW15Miss
Dec 28vsPHIL77Miss
Dec 21@CLEW134Hit
Dec 14@NEW111Hit
Dec 7vsCINW111Hit
Nov 30@PITW177Hit
Nov 21@HOUL129Hit
Nov 16vsTBW114Hit
Nov 9@MIAL77Miss
Nov 2vsKCW125Hit
Oct 26@CARW216Hit
Oct 13@ATLL87Miss
Oct 6vsNEL49Miss
Sep 28vsNOW135Hit
Sep 19vsMIAW118Hit
Sep 14@NYJW135Hit
Sep 8vsBALW102Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 104.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BUF
Questionable / DTD · 6
Ed OliverQ
Oliver (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dee AlfordQ
Alford (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Joshua PalmerQ
Palmer (shoulder) and DJ Moore (shoulder) are listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
DJ MooreQ
Moore (shoulder) will be listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News reports.
T.J. SandersQ
questionable
Te'Cory CouchQ
Couch suffered a hamstring injury Sunday versus New England and is doubtful to return.
Other · 19
Ty Johnson?
Johnson (hamstring) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Spencer Brown?
Landon Jackson?
Jackson (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough practice.
Ray Davis?
Davis caught his lone target for 31 yards while adding two carries for two yards and three kickoff returns for 114 yards during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Mike Danna?
Danna re-signed with the Bills on Tuesday.
Keon Coleman?
Coleman caught a seven-yard touchdown pass on two targets during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Jude Bowry?
Ar'maj Reed-Adams?
Dalton Kincaid?
Kincaid brought in one of two targets for seven yards and recorded a two-point conversion catch in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
LV
Out · 1
Tonka HemingwayOUT
Hemingway (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Trey Zuhn IIIQ
questionable
Other · 23
Carter Runyon?
Runyon (lower body) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.?
Thornton (hamstring) won't be activated from injured reserve for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Nailor?
Nailor (concussion) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Folorunso Fatukasi?
Khalil Shakir
?
Shakir brought in all three targets for 80 yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Josh Allen?
Allen completed 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding 10 carries for 121 yards and another score and a two-point conversion pass in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win against the Rams on Monday night.
James Cook III?
Cook rushed 10 times for 121 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for seven yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night. He also committed two fumbles, losing one.
Davison Igbinosun?
Even with Christian Benford (toe) back from injury, Igbinosun is still expected to have a role in the Bills' secondary for Monday's game against the Rams, Nick Suss of ESPN.com reports.
Christian Benford?
Benford (toe) does not carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Rams, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.
Skyler Bell?
Bell will make his NFL regular-season debut against the Rams on Monday due to the absence of Joshua Palmer (shoulder), Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Greg Rousseau?
Rousseau logged four tackles (two solo) and two passes defensed in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Dawson Knox?
Knox caught both of his targets for 13 yards in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Jalon Kilgore?
Tyler Bass?
Bass went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 29-26 loss to the Patriots.
Brock Bowers?
Bowers (knee) practiced fully Thursday. Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.
Patrick Johnson?
Johnson (stinger/neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Ashton Jeanty?
Jeanty (foot) was listed as a full participant on Wednesday's injury report, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Cody White?
White caught two of four passes for 44 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Michael Mayer?
Mayer caught his only target for two yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Mike Washington Jr.?
Washington logged a five-yard carry and caught his lone target for five yards during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Aidan O'Connell?
Dalton Johnson?
Tristin McCollum?
JJ Pegues?
Matt Gay?
Gay went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted both of his extra-point tries during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Tre Tucker?
Tucker caught four of five targets for 41 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Dylan Laube?
Laube rushed four times for nine yards and a touchdown while also reeling in all three of his targets for 16 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to New England.
Fernando Mendoza?
Mendoza completed six of eight passes for 48 yards without a touchdown or turnover in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots. He added three yards on his only carry.
Kirk Cousins?
Cousins completed 19 of 28 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Spencer Burford?
Jackson Powers-Johnson?
Powers-Johnson (groin) was a full participant in practice Thursday.
Quay Walker?
Walker registered six tackles (four solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Raiders' 30-27 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
