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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
53%
Market %
60%
Edge
-6.4pp
Market
Receptions 1.5
DK
1.59
-169
Projection1.2vs1.5(0.3 under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
80%
12/15
SZN
80%
12/15
H2H
-
ACC
56%
n=2757
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions under plays: 56% of 2757 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-6.4pp
EV
-15.1%
Alpha Score
22
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 0-6 on White
◆Best lineBuy up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (15% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
★ RECENT FORM
Cody White · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 1.4
LAST 10
40%
2/5 under · avg 1.4
SEASON
40%
2/5 under · avg 1.4
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.59 (-169) the price needs 63% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Cody White · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Line 1.5
0
2
1
2
2
MIALACNOKCNE
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 11@NEL2Miss
Oct 4vsKCL2Miss
Sep 27@NOW1Hit
Sep 20@LACW2Miss
Sep 13vsMIAW0Hit
Dec 28@CARW0Hit
Dec 19vsLARW0Hit
Dec 14vsINDW0Hit
Dec 7@ATLW1Hit
Nov 30vsMINW1Hit
Nov 23@TENW0Hit
Nov 16@LARL0Hit
Nov 9vsARIW0Hit
Nov 3@WSHW1Hit
Sep 7vsSFL0Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 63% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBUF
4-1
L104-1
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMELV
3-2
L103-2
StreakL2
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BUF
Questionable / DTD · 6
Ed OliverQ
Oliver (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dee AlfordQ
Alford (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Joshua PalmerQ
Palmer (shoulder) and DJ Moore (shoulder) are listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
DJ MooreQ
Moore (shoulder) will be listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News reports.
T.J. SandersQ
questionable
Te'Cory CouchQ
Couch suffered a hamstring injury Sunday versus New England and is doubtful to return.
Confidence readPrice too short
53% to hitrange 49-58%price needs 63%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -169 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Receptions projection 1.2 vs line 1.5
›Edge test fails: 20% looks big, but the actual gap is only 0.3 and Receptions needs 1 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(under) 60% across 2 books
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~57% have hit 56% over 2757 graded, of which 1381 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 1.5pp.
›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 3 floor for Receptions. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2757 NFL receptions cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 56%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1381 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 1.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 1.5)59.7%
Fair price2.48 · +148
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/18, 1:59 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.20 vs 1.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched10
Current mean1.40
Prior mean0.300
›All model inputs (15)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Cody White · Under the number
model projects 1.2
The best move
Buy this under up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (15% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
1
39%
16%
45%
2.16 (+116) fair
-
1.5now
55%
-
45%
1.59 (-169)
-12.7%
2
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 22?
TOTAL
22/100
Win prob+24.9/ 55
Calibrated win probability 53%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 60% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
Card ID: c-401873005-CodyWhite-RECEPTIONSPublished 10/18/2026, 5:59:02 AM
Variance1.70
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched10
current_mean1.40
prior_mean0.300
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games15
player_espn_id4241983
season2026
push-safe
55%
15%
30%
1.55 (-182) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 60% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Johnson (hamstring) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Spencer Brown?
Landon Jackson?
Jackson (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough practice.
Ray Davis?
Davis caught his lone target for 31 yards while adding two carries for two yards and three kickoff returns for 114 yards during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Mike Danna?
Danna re-signed with the Bills on Tuesday.
Keon Coleman?
Coleman caught a seven-yard touchdown pass on two targets during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Jude Bowry?
Ar'maj Reed-Adams?
Dalton Kincaid?
Kincaid brought in one of two targets for seven yards and recorded a two-point conversion catch in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Khalil Shakir?
Shakir brought in all three targets for 80 yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Josh Allen?
Allen completed 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding 10 carries for 121 yards and another score and a two-point conversion pass in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win against the Rams on Monday night.
James Cook III?
Cook rushed 10 times for 121 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for seven yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night. He also committed two fumbles, losing one.
Davison Igbinosun?
Even with Christian Benford (toe) back from injury, Igbinosun is still expected to have a role in the Bills' secondary for Monday's game against the Rams, Nick Suss of ESPN.com reports.
Christian Benford?
Benford (toe) does not carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Rams, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.
Skyler Bell?
Bell will make his NFL regular-season debut against the Rams on Monday due to the absence of Joshua Palmer (shoulder), Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Greg Rousseau?
Rousseau logged four tackles (two solo) and two passes defensed in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Dawson Knox?
Knox caught both of his targets for 13 yards in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Jalon Kilgore?
Tyler Bass?
Bass went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 29-26 loss to the Patriots.
LV
Out · 1
Tonka HemingwayOUT
Hemingway (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Trey Zuhn IIIQ
questionable
Other · 23
Carter Runyon?
Runyon (lower body) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.?
Thornton (hamstring) won't be activated from injured reserve for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Nailor?
Nailor (concussion) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Folorunso Fatukasi?
Brock Bowers?
Bowers (knee) practiced fully Thursday. Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.
Patrick Johnson?
Johnson (stinger/neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Ashton Jeanty?
Jeanty (foot) was listed as a full participant on Wednesday's injury report, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Cody White?
White caught two of four passes for 44 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Michael Mayer?
Mayer caught his only target for two yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Mike Washington Jr.?
Washington logged a five-yard carry and caught his lone target for five yards during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Aidan O'Connell?
Dalton Johnson?
Tristin McCollum?
JJ Pegues?
Matt Gay?
Gay went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted both of his extra-point tries during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Tre Tucker?
Tucker caught four of five targets for 41 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Dylan Laube?
Laube rushed four times for nine yards and a touchdown while also reeling in all three of his targets for 16 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to New England.
Fernando Mendoza?
Mendoza completed six of eight passes for 48 yards without a touchdown or turnover in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots. He added three yards on his only carry.
Kirk Cousins?
Cousins completed 19 of 28 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Spencer Burford?
Jackson Powers-Johnson?
Powers-Johnson (groin) was a full participant in practice Thursday.
Quay Walker?
Walker registered six tackles (four solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Raiders' 30-27 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Darrell Luter Jr.?
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions under) hit 55.9% over 2,757 graded cards, 2,752 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
