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5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
WATCH
◇⊘
OVER
14.5
UNDER
14.5
Our win %
57%
Market %
52%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush Attempts 14.5
DK
1.84
-119
Projection16.1vs14.5(1.6 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
SZN
64%
14/22
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
4.4%
Alpha Score
50
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-5 on JeantyStake 5.00u
◆Best lineBuy down to 14: an exact 14 returns your stake (5% push)
⧉
Same-Game Cap
This is read 4 of 4 the board is showing on this one game. Cards ranked 3rd or deeper inside their own game went 22-43 (33.8%) in July while the 1st and 2nd reads went 127-114, so it is decayed a tier band. The reads share one game state: a blowout or a washout takes all of them together. All 4 lose together 2.7% to 38.4% of the time. The low end assumes the legs are unrelated, the high end assumes one game state moves all of them. Same-game legs sit near the top of that band. Size it down and do not stack it with its siblings.
Why this card
›Rush Attempts projection 16.1 vs line 14.5
›Model read P(over) 59% sits 7pp off the market. Rush Attempts has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(over) 52% across 3 books
›Same-game cap: read 4 of 4 the board is showing on this game, and reads past the 2nd went 22-43 (33.8%) in July. Sized down, do not stack with its siblings. All 4 lose together somewhere between 2.7% and 38.4% of the time, and same-game legs sit near the top of that band.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 14.5)51.7%
Fair price1.93 · -107
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/17, 6:15 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line16.08 vs 14.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games22
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
14.5
1.84 (-119)1.84
1.93 (-108)1.93
DK implied, with vig (this side): 54.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
57% to hitrange 46-67%price needs 54%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -119 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 50?
TOTAL
50/100
Win prob+35.1/ 55
Calibrated win probability 57%
Market+5.1/ 15
Market consensus 52% on our side
Price+10.9/ 15
4.4% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 51; published as 50 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Buy this over down to 14: an exact 14 returns your stake instead of losing (5% of outcomes), same win chance as the 14.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
14push-safe
59%
5%
36%
1.62 (-162) fair
-
14.5nowbest EV
59%
-
41%
1.84 (-119)
+7.9%
Line history
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Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
BUF
Questionable / DTD · 6
Ed OliverQ
Oliver (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dee AlfordQ
Alford (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Joshua PalmerQ
Palmer (shoulder) and DJ Moore (shoulder) are listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
DJ MooreQ
Moore (shoulder) will be listed as questionable for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News reports.
T.J. SandersQ
questionable
Te'Cory CouchQ
Couch suffered a hamstring injury Sunday versus New England and is doubtful to return.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierWATCH
Kelly fraction (full)5.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.25u
EV %4.4%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401873005-AshtonJeanty-RUSH_ATTEMPTSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:15:24 AM
6.25
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_ATTEMPTS
games22
current_games5
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean17.60
prior_mean15.65
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor3.50
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4890973
season2026
15
53%
5%
41%
1.78 (-129) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 51% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Other · 19
Ty Johnson?
Johnson (hamstring) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Spencer Brown?
Landon Jackson?
Jackson (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough practice.
Ray Davis?
Davis caught his lone target for 31 yards while adding two carries for two yards and three kickoff returns for 114 yards during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Mike Danna?
Danna re-signed with the Bills on Tuesday.
Keon Coleman?
Coleman caught a seven-yard touchdown pass on two targets during the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday.
Jude Bowry?
Ar'maj Reed-Adams?
Dalton Kincaid?
Kincaid brought in one of two targets for seven yards and recorded a two-point conversion catch in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Khalil Shakir?
Shakir brought in all three targets for 80 yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night.
Josh Allen?
Allen completed 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding 10 carries for 121 yards and another score and a two-point conversion pass in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win against the Rams on Monday night.
James Cook III?
Cook rushed 10 times for 121 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for seven yards in the Bills' 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night. He also committed two fumbles, losing one.
Davison Igbinosun?
Even with Christian Benford (toe) back from injury, Igbinosun is still expected to have a role in the Bills' secondary for Monday's game against the Rams, Nick Suss of ESPN.com reports.
Christian Benford?
Benford (toe) does not carry an injury designation into Monday night's game against the Rams, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.
Skyler Bell?
Bell will make his NFL regular-season debut against the Rams on Monday due to the absence of Joshua Palmer (shoulder), Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Greg Rousseau?
Rousseau logged four tackles (two solo) and two passes defensed in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Dawson Knox?
Knox caught both of his targets for 13 yards in the Bills' 29-26 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Jalon Kilgore?
Tyler Bass?
Bass went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts and made both of his PATs during Sunday's 29-26 loss to the Patriots.
LV
Out · 1
Tonka HemingwayOUT
Hemingway (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Trey Zuhn IIIQ
questionable
Other · 23
Carter Runyon?
Runyon (lower body) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.?
Thornton (hamstring) won't be activated from injured reserve for Sunday's game against the Bills, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Jalen Nailor?
Nailor (concussion) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at Las Vegas, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Folorunso Fatukasi?
Brock Bowers?
Bowers (knee) practiced fully Thursday. Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.
Patrick Johnson?
Johnson (stinger/neck) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Ashton Jeanty?
Jeanty (foot) was listed as a full participant on Wednesday's injury report, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Cody White?
White caught two of four passes for 44 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Michael Mayer?
Mayer caught his only target for two yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Mike Washington Jr.?
Washington logged a five-yard carry and caught his lone target for five yards during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Aidan O'Connell?
Dalton Johnson?
Tristin McCollum?
JJ Pegues?
Matt Gay?
Gay went 1-for-2 on field-goal attempts and converted both of his extra-point tries during the Raiders' 45-17 loss to the Patriots on Sunday.
Tre Tucker?
Tucker caught four of five targets for 41 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Dylan Laube?
Laube rushed four times for nine yards and a touchdown while also reeling in all three of his targets for 16 yards during Sunday's 45-17 loss to New England.
Fernando Mendoza?
Mendoza completed six of eight passes for 48 yards without a touchdown or turnover in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots. He added three yards on his only carry.
Kirk Cousins?
Cousins completed 19 of 28 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 45-17 loss to the Patriots.
Spencer Burford?
Jackson Powers-Johnson?
Powers-Johnson (groin) was a full participant in practice Thursday.
Quay Walker?
Walker registered six tackles (four solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Raiders' 30-27 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Darrell Luter Jr.?
★ RECENT FORM
Ashton Jeanty · Rush Attempts vs 14.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 17.6
LAST 10
80%
4/5 over · avg 17.6
SEASON
80%
4/5 over · avg 17.6
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.84 (-119) the price needs 54% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYBUF
4-1
L104-1
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+23.0
HOMELV
3-2
L103-2
StreakL2
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Ashton Jeanty · Rush Attempts vs 14.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Oct 11@NEL10Miss
Oct 4vsKCL15Hit
Sep 27@NOW19Hit
Sep 20@LACW21Hit
Sep 13vsMIAW23Hit
Jan 4vsKCW26Hit
Dec 28vsNYGL16Hit
Dec 21@HOUL24Hit
Dec 14@PHIL9Miss
Dec 7vsDENL10Miss
Nov 30@LACL15Hit
Nov 23vsCLEL17Hit
Nov 18vsDALL6Miss
Nov 7@DENL19Hit
Nov 2vsJAXL13Miss
Oct 19@KCL6Miss
Oct 12vsTENW23Hit
Oct 5@INDL14Miss
Sep 28vsCHIL21Hit
Sep 21@WSHL17Hit
Sep 16vsLACL11Miss
Sep 7@NEW19Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 14.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 54% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
