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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
Our win %
42%
Market %
45%
Edge
-2.5pp
Market
Rushing Yards 0.5
DK
2.12
+112
Projection4.5vs0.5(4.0 over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
SZN
36%
9/25
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
49%
n=1864
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards over plays: 49% of 1864 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.5pp
EV
-10.7%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 6-8 on Stafford
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 4.5 vs line 0.5
›Model read P(over) 54% sits 10pp off the market. Rushing Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: 800% looks big, but the actual gap is only 4.0 and Rushing Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 45% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 1864 graded, of which 934 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1864 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 934 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)44.6%
Fair price2.24 · +124
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 6:48 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line4.50 vs 0.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched20
Current mean4.20
Prior mean0.800
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
2.12 (+112)2.12
1.71 (-141)1.71
FD
1.5
2.12 (+112)2.12
1.68 (-146)1.68
DK implied, with vig (this side): 47.2%
Confidence readPrice too short
42% to hitrange 40-44%price needs 47%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +112 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (15.2% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5nowbest EV
54%
-
46%
2.12 (+112)
+15.2%
1
53%
1%
46%
1.85 (-117) fair
-
1.5
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
ARI
Out · 3
Andrew WingardOUT
Wingard (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Rams, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.
Jeremiyah LoveOUT
Love (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at the Rams, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.
Wydett Williams Jr.OUT
Coach Mike LaFleur has ruled out Williams (concussion) for Sunday's game against the Rams, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Zaven CollinsQ
Collins (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Rams, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.
Budda BakerQ
Baker (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Rams, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-10.7%
Edge %-2.5pp
Card ID: c-401873004-MatthewStafford-RUSHING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:48:29 AM
Variance25.30
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched20
current_mean4.20
prior_mean0.800
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games25
player_espn_id12483
season2026
53%
-
47%
2.12 (+112)
+12.9%
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 45% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Blake GillikinQ
questionable
Other · 19
Bam Knight?
Knight will bump up the Cardinals' RB depth chart in Week 6 with Jeremiyah Love (ankle) ruled out, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Tyler Allgeier?
Allgeier is poised for a leading role out of the Cardinals backfield Sunday at the Rams with Jeremiyah Love (ankle) sidelined in Week 6, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Devin Duvernay?
Kitan Crawford?
The Cardinals opened Crawford's (ankle) 21-day practice window Wednesday.
Shawn Bowman?
Bowman was signed from the practice squad to the active roster Wednesday.
Reggie Virgil?
Virgil recorded two receptions for 29 yards on five targets in Sunday's 45-21 loss to the Lions.
Jalen Brooks?
Brooks recorded two catches for 16 yards on seven targets in Sunday's 45-21 loss to the Lions.
James Conner?
Conner (foot) is close to practicing, but the Cardinals aren't expected to open his 21-day evaluation window this week, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM reports.
Andrew Billings?
Starling Thomas V?
Chad Ryland?
Ryland made all three of his extra-point attempts but missed his lone field-goal try during the Cardinals' 45-21 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Kendrick Bourne?
Bourne caught five of eight targets for 70 yards during Sunday's 45-21 loss to the Lions.
Jacoby Brissett?
Brissett completed 29 of 47 passes for 292 yards with three touchdowns and one interception while adding two rushes for 19 yards and a seven-yard reception on his only target in the Cardinals' 45-21 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Michael Wilson?
Wilson brought in four of seven targets for 30 yards and completed his only pass attempt for seven yards in the Cardinals' 45-21 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Teagan Quitoriano?
Quitoriano caught both of his targets for 15 yards and two touchdowns during Sunday's 45-21 loss to Detroit.
Trey McBride?
McBride brought in nine of 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown in the Cardinals' 45-21 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Walter Nolen III?
Nolen (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Lions.
Carson Beck?
Beck (coach's decision) is inactive and is designated as Arizona's emergency third quarterback for Sunday's matchup versus the Lions.
Gardner Minshew II?
Minshew is active for Sunday's game against the Lions.
LAR
Questionable / DTD · 2
Trent McDuffieQ
McDuffie (groin) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
Kam CurlQ
Curl (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
Other · 23
Nate Landman?
Landman (wrist/shoulder) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
Davis Allen?
Allen (foot) does not have an injury designation against the Cardinals on Sunday, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
Colby Parkinson?
Parkinson (shoulder) doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cardinals.
Josh Wallace?
Keagen Trost?
The Rams designated Trost (hamstring) for return to practice from injured reserve Thursday.
Alaric Jackson?
Jackson's suspension for an act of unsportsmanlike conduct during Monday's game versus the Bills has been reduced to one game, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Myles Garrett?
Head coach Sean McVay told reporters Tuesday that Garrett (knee) will not return to practice this week and will not play against the Cardinals on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.
Blake Grupe?
The Rams signed Grupe off the Jets' practice squad Tuesday, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.
Larrell Murchison?
Bill Murray?
Max Klare?
CJ Daniels?
Tyler Higbee?
Higbee brought in five of six targets for 83 yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Blake Corum?
Corum rushed five times for 19 yards and a touchdown and brought in three of four targets for 53 yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Davante Adams?
Adams brought in five of seven targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Kyren Williams?
Williams rushed 16 times for 49 yards and a touchdown and brought in six of eight targets for 27 yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Matthew Stafford?
Stafford completed 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Puka Nacua?
Nacua brought in 17 of 24 targets for 138 yards and a touchdown and rushed twice for nine yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Quentin Lake?
Lake (hip) is active for Monday's game against the Bills, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.
Ty Simpson?
Simpson (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Rams' emergency third quarterback against the Bills on Monday, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.
Jaylen Watson?
Watson (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against the Bills, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.
Grant Stuard?
Josaiah Stewart?
★ RECENT FORM
Matthew Stafford · Rushing Yards vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 4.2
LAST 10
40%
2/5 over · avg 4.2
SEASON
40%
2/5 over · avg 4.2
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.12 (+112) the price needs 47% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYARI
1-4
L101-4
StreakL4
Road0-0
Run diff-54.0
HOMELAR
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-1.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Matthew Stafford · Rushing Yards vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 13vsBUFL0Miss
Oct 4@PHIW10Hit
Sep 28@DENL13Hit
Sep 22vsNYGW-1Miss
Sep 11vsSFL-1Miss
Jan 25@SEAL16Hit
Jan 18@CHIW-1Miss
Jan 10@CARW0Miss
Jan 4vsARIW3Hit
Dec 30@ATLL0Miss
Dec 19@SEAL6Hit
Dec 14vsDETW2Hit
Dec 7@ARIW0Miss
Nov 30@CARL-1Miss
Nov 24vsTBW0Miss
Nov 16vsSEAW0Miss
Nov 9@SFW-3Miss
Nov 2vsNOW-4Miss
Oct 19@JAXW1Hit
Oct 12@BALW1Hit
Oct 3vsSFL0Miss
Sep 28vsINDW4Hit
Sep 21@PHIL0Miss
Sep 14@TENW-6Miss
Sep 7vsHOUW-2Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 47% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards over) hit 49.0% over 1,864 graded cards, 1,860 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
