Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
5 games this season, 20 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
0.5
UNDER
0.5
Our win %
54%
Market %
65%
Edge
-10.8pp
Market
Receptions 0.5
DK
1.48
-209
Projection1.2vs0.5(0.7 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
65%
13/20
SZN
72%
18/25
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
50%
n=2773
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions over plays: 50% of 2773 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-10.8pp
EV
-20.1%
Alpha Score
24
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-2 on Allen
Why this card
›Receptions projection 1.2 vs line 0.5
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.7 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(over) 65% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~58% have hit 50% over 2773 graded, of which 1390 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.7pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2773 NFL receptions cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 50%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1390 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)64.8%
Fair price1.54 · -184
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/17, 6:15 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.20 vs 0.5
5 games this season, 20 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games20
Prior games fetched20
Current mean1.20
Prior mean1.20
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
1.48 (-209)1.48
2.62 (+162)2.62
FD
0.5
1.44 (-225)1.44
2.64 (+164)2.64
FANATICS
1.5
3.25 (+225)3.25
1.25 (-400)1.25
DK implied, with vig (this side): 67.6%
Confidence readPrice too short
54% to hitrange 50-58%price needs 68%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -209 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
62%
-
38%
1.48 (-209)
-8.8%
1
45%
17%
38%
1.85 (-117) fair
-
1.5
45%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
ARI
Out · 3
Andrew WingardOUT
Wingard (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Rams, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.
Jeremiyah LoveOUT
Love (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at the Rams, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.
Wydett Williams Jr.OUT
Coach Mike LaFleur has ruled out Williams (concussion) for Sunday's game against the Rams, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Zaven CollinsQ
Collins (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Rams, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.
Budda BakerQ
Baker (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Rams, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-20.1%
Edge %-10.8pp
Card ID: c-401873004-DavisAllen-RECEPTIONSPublished 10/17/2026, 10:15:23 AM
1.50
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games20
prior_games_fetched20
current_mean1.20
prior_mean1.20
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games25
player_espn_id4426553
season2026
-
55%
3.25 (+225)
(+46%)
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 64% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Blake GillikinQ
questionable
Other · 19
Bam Knight?
Knight will bump up the Cardinals' RB depth chart in Week 6 with Jeremiyah Love (ankle) ruled out, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Tyler Allgeier?
Allgeier is poised for a leading role out of the Cardinals backfield Sunday at the Rams with Jeremiyah Love (ankle) sidelined in Week 6, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Devin Duvernay?
Kitan Crawford?
The Cardinals opened Crawford's (ankle) 21-day practice window Wednesday.
Shawn Bowman?
Bowman was signed from the practice squad to the active roster Wednesday.
Reggie Virgil?
Virgil recorded two receptions for 29 yards on five targets in Sunday's 45-21 loss to the Lions.
Jalen Brooks?
Brooks recorded two catches for 16 yards on seven targets in Sunday's 45-21 loss to the Lions.
James Conner?
Conner (foot) is close to practicing, but the Cardinals aren't expected to open his 21-day evaluation window this week, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM reports.
Andrew Billings?
Starling Thomas V?
Chad Ryland?
Ryland made all three of his extra-point attempts but missed his lone field-goal try during the Cardinals' 45-21 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Kendrick Bourne?
Bourne caught five of eight targets for 70 yards during Sunday's 45-21 loss to the Lions.
Jacoby Brissett?
Brissett completed 29 of 47 passes for 292 yards with three touchdowns and one interception while adding two rushes for 19 yards and a seven-yard reception on his only target in the Cardinals' 45-21 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Michael Wilson?
Wilson brought in four of seven targets for 30 yards and completed his only pass attempt for seven yards in the Cardinals' 45-21 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Teagan Quitoriano?
Quitoriano caught both of his targets for 15 yards and two touchdowns during Sunday's 45-21 loss to Detroit.
Trey McBride?
McBride brought in nine of 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown in the Cardinals' 45-21 loss to the Lions on Sunday.
Walter Nolen III?
Nolen (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Lions.
Carson Beck?
Beck (coach's decision) is inactive and is designated as Arizona's emergency third quarterback for Sunday's matchup versus the Lions.
Gardner Minshew II?
Minshew is active for Sunday's game against the Lions.
LAR
Questionable / DTD · 2
Trent McDuffieQ
McDuffie (groin) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
Kam CurlQ
Curl (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
Other · 23
Nate Landman?
Landman (wrist/shoulder) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cardinals, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
Davis Allen?
Allen (foot) does not have an injury designation against the Cardinals on Sunday, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
Colby Parkinson?
Parkinson (shoulder) doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Cardinals.
Josh Wallace?
Keagen Trost?
The Rams designated Trost (hamstring) for return to practice from injured reserve Thursday.
Alaric Jackson?
Jackson's suspension for an act of unsportsmanlike conduct during Monday's game versus the Bills has been reduced to one game, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Myles Garrett?
Head coach Sean McVay told reporters Tuesday that Garrett (knee) will not return to practice this week and will not play against the Cardinals on Sunday, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports.
Blake Grupe?
The Rams signed Grupe off the Jets' practice squad Tuesday, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.
Larrell Murchison?
Bill Murray?
Max Klare?
CJ Daniels?
Tyler Higbee?
Higbee brought in five of six targets for 83 yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Blake Corum?
Corum rushed five times for 19 yards and a touchdown and brought in three of four targets for 53 yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Davante Adams?
Adams brought in five of seven targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Kyren Williams?
Williams rushed 16 times for 49 yards and a touchdown and brought in six of eight targets for 27 yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Matthew Stafford?
Stafford completed 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Puka Nacua?
Nacua brought in 17 of 24 targets for 138 yards and a touchdown and rushed twice for nine yards in the Rams' 37-34 overtime loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Quentin Lake?
Lake (hip) is active for Monday's game against the Bills, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.
Ty Simpson?
Simpson (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Rams' emergency third quarterback against the Bills on Monday, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports.
Jaylen Watson?
Watson (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Monday's game against the Bills, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.
Grant Stuard?
Josaiah Stewart?
★ RECENT FORM
Davis Allen · Receptions vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 1.2
LAST 10
80%
4/5 over · avg 1.2
SEASON
80%
4/5 over · avg 1.2
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.48 (-209) the price needs 68% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYARI
1-4
L101-4
StreakL4
Road0-0
Run diff-54.0
HOMELAR
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-1.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Davis Allen · Receptions vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Oct 13vsBUFL2Hit
Oct 4@PHIW0Miss
Sep 28@DENL2Hit
Sep 22vsNYGW1Hit
Sep 11vsSFL1Hit
Jan 25@SEAL0Miss
Jan 18@CHIW0Miss
Jan 10@CARW0Miss
Jan 4vsARIW0Miss
Dec 30@ATLL0Miss
Dec 19@SEAL2Hit
Dec 14vsDETW3Hit
Dec 7@ARIW2Hit
Nov 30@CARL1Hit
Nov 24vsTBW3Hit
Nov 16vsSEAW0Miss
Nov 9@SFW2Hit
Nov 2vsNOW3Hit
Oct 19@JAXW1Hit
Oct 12@BALW1Hit
Oct 3vsSFL2Hit
Sep 28vsINDW1Hit
Sep 21@PHIL1Hit
Sep 14@TENW1Hit
Sep 7vsHOUW1Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 68% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions over) hit 50.4% over 2,773 graded cards, 2,766 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
