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Tackles + Assists 3.5 · TEN · @ IND · Titans at Colts
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
3.5
UNDER
3.5
Our win %
54%
Market %
49%
Edge
+4.3pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 3.5
DK
1.90
-111
Projection3.8vs3.5(0.3 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
42%
8/19
SZN
42%
8/19
H2H
0%
0/2
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+4.3pp
EV
1.9%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.53u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 2.13u
◆Best lineBuy down to 3: an exact 3 returns your stake (11% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYTEN
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-51.0
HOMEIND
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
TEN
Out · 7
Kylen GransonOUT
Granson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Nicholas SingletonOUT
Singleton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Alontae TaylorOUT
Taylor (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.
Kevin Winston Jr.OUT
inactive
Jackie MarshallOUT
inactive
Brandon Crenshaw-DicksonOUT
inactive
Jordan ElliottOUT
inactive
Confidence readOn the fence
54% to hitrange 45-62%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -111 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 3.8 vs line 3.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 49% across 2 books
›Baby line: 3.5 is below the 4.5 floor for Tackles + Assists. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: TEN has 7 OUT
›Opponent IND missing 5, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ TEN has 7 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 3.5)49.3%
Fair price2.03 · +103
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/18, 12:52 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line3.81 vs 3.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games19
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched14
›All model inputs (19)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Marcus Harris · Over the number
model projects 3.81
The best move
Buy this over down to 3: an exact 3 returns your stake instead of losing (11% of outcomes), same win chance as the 3.5.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
Outcome
WIN
Actual
4
line 3.5
Units
+0.87u
Price CLV vs close: +2.1% - entry -110 → close -115 · 31 snapshots
Variance2.64
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games19
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched14
current_mean4.80
prior_mean2
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4570469
season2026
4
42%
12%
46%
2.10 (+110) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 49% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
3.5
1.90 (-111)1.90
1.85 (-117)1.85
DK implied, with vig (this side): 52.6%
Line history
Loading…
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 21; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Adams (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Colts.
Other · 17ShowHide
Carnell Tate?
Tate caught six of seven targets for 70 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 26-20 win over the Colts.
Tony Pollard?
Pollard carried the ball 19 times for 76 yards and failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 26-20 win over the Colts.
Cam Ward?
Ward completed 11 of 22 passes for 102 yards and one touchdown with one interception in Sunday's 26-20 win over the Colts. He added seven yards on three carries.
Tyjae Spears?
Spears (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Joshua Williams?
The Titans activated Williams (pectoral) from reserve/PUP on Saturday.
David Martin-Robinson?
Martin-Robinson (hamstring) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Amani Hooker?
Hooker (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Marcus Harris?
Cor'Dale Flott?
Flott (chest) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice session.
Elic Ayomanor?
Ayomanor caught one of two passes for 17 yards during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday. He also added a tackle on special teams.
Calvin Ridley?
Ridley caught two of three targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Gunnar Helm?
Helm failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Jaylon Jones?
Michael Carter?
Joey Slye?
Slye made his lone field-goal attempt during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Wan'Dale Robinson?
Robinson caught six of seven targets for 53 yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
John Franklin-Myers?
IND
Out · 5
Riley LeonardOUT
Leonard (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Colts' emergency third quarterback against the Titans on Sunday.
Tyler WarrenOUT
Warren (groin) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Dalton TuckerOUT
inactive
Ashton DulinOUT
inactive
Jaylon CarliesOUT
inactive
Questionable / DTD · 3
Rigoberto SanchezQ
Sanchez (foot) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Titans, Jake Arthur of Roundtable.io reports.
Sauce GardnerQ
Gardner (calf) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Titans, Jake Arthur of Roundtable.io reports.
Anthony GouldQ
Gould (concussion) won't return to Sunday's game against the Titans, Mike Chappell of Fox 59 News Indianapolis reports.
Other · 17ShowHide
Keenan Allen?
Allen caught eight of 11 targets for 82 yards in Sunday's 26-20 loss to the Titans.
Josh Downs?
Downs caught four of eight targets for 40 yards in Sunday's 26-20 loss to the Titans. He added seven rushing yards on his only carry.
Daniel Jones?
Jones completed 22 of 42 passes for 269 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions in Sunday's 26-20 loss to the Titans.
Jonathan Taylor?
Taylor carried the ball 21 times for 94 yards and a touchdown and caught two of four targets for 57 yards in Sunday's 26-20 loss to the Titans. He also lost a fumble.
Will Mallory?
The Colts activated Mallory (thumb) from injured reserve Saturday.
Jalen Travis?
Jaylahn Tuimoloau?
Matt Goncalves?
Alec Pierce?
Pierce was spotted without a cast on his left ankle/heel Wednesday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.
Pharaoh Brown?
Brown was signed to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Spencer Shrader?
Shrader made all five of his field-goal attempts and converted on his lone point-after try during Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers on Sunday.
Charvarius Ward?
Ward (groin) is active for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh.
Arden Key?
The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.
Tanor Bortolini?
Akeem Davis-Gaither?
Davis-Gaither (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Justin Walley?
Walley recorded eight tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Colts' 30-13 win over the Commanders on Sunday in London.
Seth McGowan?
McGowan turned six carries into 31 yards and caught one of two targets for seven yards during Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders in London. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards.
★ RECENT FORM
Marcus Harris · Tackles + Assists vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 4.2
LAST 10
83%
5/6 over · avg 4.7
SEASON
83%
5/6 over · avg 4.7
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.90 (-111) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Marcus Harris · Tackles + Assists vs 3.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Line 3.5
6
6
4
1
4
PHINYGBALHOUIND
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 18@INDW4Hit
Oct 11vsHOUL1Miss
Oct 4@BALL4Hit
Sep 27@NYGL6Hit
Sep 20vsPHIL6Hit
Sep 13vsNYJL7Hit
Dec 21vsKCW1Miss
Dec 14@SFL7Hit
Dec 7@CLEW4Hit
Nov 30vsJAXL4Hit
Nov 23vsSEAL2Miss
Nov 16vsHOUL4Hit
Nov 2vsLACL1Miss
Oct 26@INDL2Miss
Oct 19vsNEL0Miss
Oct 5@ARIW1Miss
Sep 28@HOUL2Miss
Sep 21vsINDL0Miss
Sep 14vsLARL0Miss
Sep 7@DENL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 3.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
