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Receiving Yards 7.5 · IND · vs TEN · Titans at Colts
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
7.5
UNDER
7.5
Our win %
48%
Market %
49%
Edge
-1.7pp
Market
Receiving Yards 7.5
DK
1.95
-105
Projection1.2vs7.5(6.3 under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
85%
17/20
SZN
85%
17/20
H2H
100%
2/2
ACC
49%
n=1646
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards under plays: 49% of 1646 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-1.7pp
EV
-7.3%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readPrice too short
48% to hitrange 46-49%price needs 51%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -105 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 1.2 vs line 7.5
›Model read P(under) 57% sits 8pp off the market. Receiving Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: 84% looks big, but the actual gap is only 6.3 and Receiving Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(under) 49% across 2 books
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~56% have hit 49% over 1646 graded, of which 825 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.7pp.
›Baby line: 7.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: IND has 5 OUT
›Opponent TEN missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ IND has 5 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1646 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 56% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 825 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 6.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 7.5)49.2%
Fair price1.97 · -103
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/18, 12:52 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.20 vs 7.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched15
Current mean0.800
Prior mean1.80
›All model inputs (15)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Drew Ogletree · Under the number
model projects 1.2
The best move
The 7.5 is already the best line on the board (11.9% EV). No better rung available.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 49% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Granson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Nicholas SingletonOUT
Singleton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Alontae TaylorOUT
Taylor (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.
Kevin Winston Jr.OUT
inactive
Jackie MarshallOUT
inactive
Brandon Crenshaw-DicksonOUT
inactive
Jordan ElliottOUT
inactive
Other · 18ShowHide
Tyjae Spears?
Spears (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Joshua Williams?
The Titans activated Williams (pectoral) from reserve/PUP on Saturday.
David Martin-Robinson?
Martin-Robinson (hamstring) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Amani Hooker?
Hooker (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Marcus Harris?
Cor'Dale Flott?
Flott (chest) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice session.
Tony Pollard?
Pollard was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Elic Ayomanor?
IND
Out · 5
Riley LeonardOUT
Leonard (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Colts' emergency third quarterback against the Titans on Sunday.
Tyler WarrenOUT
Warren (groin) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Dalton TuckerOUT
inactive
Ashton DulinOUT
inactive
Jaylon CarliesOUT
inactive
Other · 20ShowHide
Will Mallory?
The Colts activated Mallory (thumb) from injured reserve Saturday.
Jalen Travis?
★ RECENT FORM
Drew Ogletree · Receiving Yards vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
100%
5/5 under · avg 0.8
LAST 10
100%
5/5 under · avg 0.8
SEASON
100%
5/5 under · avg 0.8
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.95 (-105) the price needs 51% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Drew Ogletree · Receiving Yards vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
100%5/5 under
Line 7.5
0
0
0
0
4
BALKCHOUWSHPIT
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 11@PITL4Hit
Oct 4@WSHW0Hit
Sep 27vsHOUW0Hit
Sep 21@KCL0Hit
Sep 13vsBALL0Hit
Dec 23vsSFL11Miss
Dec 14@SEAL0Hit
Dec 7@JAXL0Hit
Nov 30vsHOUL8Miss
Nov 23@KCL8Miss
Nov 9vsATLW0Hit
Nov 2@PITL0Hit
Oct 26vsTENW0Hit
Oct 19@LACW0Hit
Oct 12vsARIW0Hit
Oct 5vsLVW0Hit
Sep 28@LARL0Hit
Sep 21@TENW0Hit
Sep 14vsDENW0Hit
Sep 7vsMIAW0Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 7.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 51% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYTEN
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-51.0
HOMEIND
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Ayomanor caught one of two passes for 17 yards during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday. He also added a tackle on special teams.
Calvin Ridley?
Ridley caught two of three targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Gunnar Helm?
Helm failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Jaylon Jones?
Michael Carter?
Joey Slye?
Slye made his lone field-goal attempt during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Wan'Dale Robinson?
Robinson caught six of seven targets for 53 yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Carnell Tate?
Tate caught one of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Cam Ward?
Ward completed 23 of 36 passes for 170 yards and an interception in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans. He added two yards on his lone carry.
John Franklin-Myers?
Jeffery Simmons?
Jaylahn Tuimoloau?
Matt Goncalves?
Josh Downs?
Downs (rest/hamstring) upgraded to full participation at Thursday's practice.
Alec Pierce?
Pierce was spotted without a cast on his left ankle/heel Wednesday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.
Keenan Allen?
Allen was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Pharaoh Brown?
Brown was signed to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Spencer Shrader?
Shrader made all five of his field-goal attempts and converted on his lone point-after try during Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers on Sunday.
Daniel Jones?
Jones completed 24 of 44 passes for 267 yards without a touchdown or interception and added four rushing yards on three carries in Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers.
Jonathan Taylor?
Taylor carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards and caught three of four targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 34-22 loss to Pittsburgh.
Charvarius Ward?
Ward (groin) is active for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh.
Arden Key?
The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.
Tanor Bortolini?
Akeem Davis-Gaither?
Davis-Gaither (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Justin Walley?
Walley recorded eight tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Colts' 30-13 win over the Commanders on Sunday in London.
Seth McGowan?
McGowan turned six carries into 31 yards and caught one of two targets for seven yards during Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders in London. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards.
Laquon Treadwell?
Treadwell caught five of six targets for 42 yards in Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders.
George Gumbs Jr.?
DJ Giddens?
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards under) hit 48.8% over 1,646 graded cards, 1,642 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
