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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
6.5
UNDER
6.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.5pp
Market
Rushing Yards 6.5
DK
1.93
-107
Projection6.3vs6.5(0.2 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
61%
11/18
SZN
61%
11/18
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
54%
n=990
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards under plays: 54% of 990 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.5pp
EV
-8.4%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 9-7 on Jones
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 6.3 vs line 6.5
›Edge test fails: our 0.2 gap is only 3% of the 6.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~57% have hit 54% over 990 graded, of which 496 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 2.9pp.
›Baby line: 6.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 990 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 54%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 496 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 2.9pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 6.5)49.8%
Fair price1.99 · -101
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/17, 3:08 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line6.30 vs 6.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched13
Current mean5
Prior mean12.60
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
6.5
1.85 (-118)1.85
1.93 (-107)1.93
FD
6.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 51.7%
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 42-53%price needs 52%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -107 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 6.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
6
49%
1%
50%
2.01 (+101) fair
-
6.5now
50%
-
50%
1.93 (-107)
-2.9%
7
50%
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-8.4%
Edge %-2.5pp
Card ID: c-401873003-DanielJones-RUSHING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:08:46 AM
Variance25.30
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched13
current_mean5
prior_mean12.60
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games18
player_espn_id3917792
season2026
1%
49%
1.97 (-103) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 49% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYTEN
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-51.0
HOMEIND
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
TEN
Out · 2
Jordan ElliottOUT
Elliott (personal) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Kevin Winston Jr.OUT
Winston (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyjae SpearsQ
Spears (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Other · 22
David Martin-Robinson?
Martin-Robinson (hamstring) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Amani Hooker?
Hooker (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Marcus Harris?
Cor'Dale Flott?
Flott (chest) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice session.
Tony Pollard?
Pollard was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Elic Ayomanor?
Ayomanor caught one of two passes for 17 yards during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday. He also added a tackle on special teams.
Calvin Ridley?
Ridley caught two of three targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Gunnar Helm?
Helm failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson?
Jaylon Jones?
Michael Carter?
Jackie Marshall?
Nicholas Singleton?
Joey Slye?
Slye made his lone field-goal attempt during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Wan'Dale Robinson?
Robinson caught six of seven targets for 53 yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Carnell Tate?
Tate caught one of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Cam Ward?
Ward completed 23 of 36 passes for 170 yards and an interception in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans. He added two yards on his lone carry.
Joshua Williams?
Williams (pectoral) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.
John Franklin-Myers?
Jeffery Simmons?
Anthony Hill Jr.?
Hill tallied eight tackles (three solo) during the Titans' 24-18 loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Drew Moss?
IND
Out · 2
Jaylon CarliesOUT
Carlies (ribs) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Ashton DulinOUT
Dulin (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyler WarrenQ
Warren (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans after being added to the practice report Friday as a limited participant.
Other · 22
Will Mallory?
Mallory (thumb) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Jalen Travis?
Jaylahn Tuimoloau?
Matt Goncalves
?
Josh Downs?
Downs (rest/hamstring) upgraded to full participation at Thursday's practice.
Alec Pierce?
Pierce was spotted without a cast on his left ankle/heel Wednesday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.
Keenan Allen?
Allen was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Pharaoh Brown?
Brown was signed to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Dalton Tucker?
Riley Leonard?
Spencer Shrader?
Shrader made all five of his field-goal attempts and converted on his lone point-after try during Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers on Sunday.
Daniel Jones?
Jones completed 24 of 44 passes for 267 yards without a touchdown or interception and added four rushing yards on three carries in Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers.
Jonathan Taylor?
Taylor carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards and caught three of four targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 34-22 loss to Pittsburgh.
Charvarius Ward?
Ward (groin) is active for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh.
Arden Key?
The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.
Tanor Bortolini?
Akeem Davis-Gaither?
Davis-Gaither (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Justin Walley?
Walley recorded eight tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Colts' 30-13 win over the Commanders on Sunday in London.
Seth McGowan?
McGowan turned six carries into 31 yards and caught one of two targets for seven yards during Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders in London. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards.
Laquon Treadwell?
Treadwell caught five of six targets for 42 yards in Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders.
George Gumbs Jr.?
DJ Giddens?
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
★ RECENT FORM
Daniel Jones · Rushing Yards vs 6.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 5.0
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 5.0
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 5.0
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.93 (-107) the price needs 52% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Daniel Jones · Rushing Yards vs 6.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 11@PITL4Hit
Oct 4@WSHW2Hit
Sep 27vsHOUW5Hit
Sep 21@KCL10Miss
Sep 13vsBALL4Hit
Dec 7@JAXL4Hit
Nov 30vsHOUL1Hit
Nov 23@KCL16Miss
Nov 9vsATLW53Miss
Nov 2@PITL4Hit
Oct 26vsTENW3Hit
Oct 19@LACW7Miss
Oct 12vsARIW20Miss
Oct 5vsLVW2Hit
Sep 28@LARL-1Hit
Sep 21@TENW27Miss
Sep 14vsDENW2Hit
Sep 7vsMIAW26Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 6.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 52% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards under) hit 54.3% over 990 graded cards, 988 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
