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5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
31.5
UNDER
31.5
Our win %
52%
Market %
51%
Edge
+1.1pp
Market
Pass Attempts 31.5
FANATICS
1.80
-125
Projection32.1vs31.5(0.6 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
SZN
59%
13/22
H2H
100%
2/2
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+1.1pp
EV
-6.4%
Alpha Score
14
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-12 on Ward
Why this card
›Pass Attempts projection 32.1 vs line 31.5
›Edge test fails: our 0.6 gap is only 2% of the 31.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(over) 51% across 1 book
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 31.5)50.9%
Fair price1.96 · -104
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 2:47 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line32.08 vs 31.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games22
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
›All model inputs (19)
Variance10.47
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propPASS_ATTEMPTS
games22
current_games5
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
32.5
1.99 (-101)1.99
1.79 (-126)1.79
FANATICS★ Best
31.5
1.80 (-125)1.80
1.87 (-115)1.87
FANATICS implied, with vig (this side): 55.6%
Confidence readOn the fence
52% to hitrange 41-63%price needs 56%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -125 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 31.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
31
52%
3%
45%
1.85 (-117) fair
-
31.5now
52%
-
48%
1.80 (-125)
-6.4%
32
49%
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
TEN
Out · 2
Jordan ElliottOUT
Elliott (personal) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Kevin Winston Jr.OUT
Winston (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyjae SpearsQ
Spears (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Other · 22
David Martin-Robinson?
Martin-Robinson (hamstring) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Amani Hooker?
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-6.4%
Edge %+1.1pp
Card ID: c-401873003-CamWard-PASS_ATTEMPTSPublished 10/17/2026, 6:47:20 AM
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean31
prior_mean31.76
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor5
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4688380
season2026
3%
48%
1.99 (-101) fair
-
32.5
49%
-
51%
1.99 (-101)
-3.4%
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 51% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Hooker (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Marcus Harris?
Cor'Dale Flott?
Flott (chest) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice session.
Tony Pollard?
Pollard was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Elic Ayomanor?
Ayomanor caught one of two passes for 17 yards during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday. He also added a tackle on special teams.
Calvin Ridley?
Ridley caught two of three targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Gunnar Helm?
Helm failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson?
Jaylon Jones?
Michael Carter?
Jackie Marshall?
Nicholas Singleton?
Joey Slye?
Slye made his lone field-goal attempt during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Wan'Dale Robinson?
Robinson caught six of seven targets for 53 yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Carnell Tate?
Tate caught one of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Cam Ward?
Ward completed 23 of 36 passes for 170 yards and an interception in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans. He added two yards on his lone carry.
Joshua Williams?
Williams (pectoral) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.
John Franklin-Myers?
Jeffery Simmons?
Anthony Hill Jr.?
Hill tallied eight tackles (three solo) during the Titans' 24-18 loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Drew Moss?
IND
Out · 2
Jaylon CarliesOUT
Carlies (ribs) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Ashton DulinOUT
Dulin (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyler WarrenQ
Warren (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans after being added to the practice report Friday as a limited participant.
Other · 22
Will Mallory?
Mallory (thumb) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Jalen Travis?
Jaylahn Tuimoloau?
Matt Goncalves?
Josh Downs?
Downs (rest/hamstring) upgraded to full participation at Thursday's practice.
Alec Pierce?
Pierce was spotted without a cast on his left ankle/heel Wednesday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.
Keenan Allen?
Allen was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Pharaoh Brown?
Brown was signed to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Dalton Tucker?
Riley Leonard?
Spencer Shrader?
Shrader made all five of his field-goal attempts and converted on his lone point-after try during Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers on Sunday.
Daniel Jones?
Jones completed 24 of 44 passes for 267 yards without a touchdown or interception and added four rushing yards on three carries in Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers.
Jonathan Taylor?
Taylor carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards and caught three of four targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 34-22 loss to Pittsburgh.
Charvarius Ward?
Ward (groin) is active for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh.
Arden Key?
The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.
Tanor Bortolini?
Akeem Davis-Gaither?
Davis-Gaither (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Justin Walley?
Walley recorded eight tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Colts' 30-13 win over the Commanders on Sunday in London.
Seth McGowan?
McGowan turned six carries into 31 yards and caught one of two targets for seven yards during Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders in London. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards.
Laquon Treadwell?
Treadwell caught five of six targets for 42 yards in Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders.
George Gumbs Jr.?
DJ Giddens?
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYTEN
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-51.0
HOMEIND
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Cam Ward · Pass Attempts vs 31.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 31.0
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 31.0
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 31.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.80 (-125) the price needs 56% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Cam Ward · Pass Attempts vs 31.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Oct 11vsHOUL36Hit
Oct 4@BALL31Miss
Sep 27@NYGL36Hit
Sep 20vsPHIL20Miss
Sep 13vsNYJL32Hit
Jan 4@JAXL3Miss
Dec 28vsNOL40Hit
Dec 21vsKCW28Miss
Dec 14@SFL29Miss
Dec 7@CLEW28Miss
Nov 30vsJAXL38Hit
Nov 23vsSEAL42Hit
Nov 16vsHOUL37Hit
Nov 2vsLACL21Miss
Oct 26@INDL38Hit
Oct 19vsNEL34Hit
Oct 12@LVL38Hit
Oct 5@ARIW39Hit
Sep 28@HOUL26Miss
Sep 21vsINDL38Hit
Sep 14vsLARL33Hit
Sep 7@DENL28Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 31.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 56% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
