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5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
200.5
UNDER
200.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
49%
Edge
-1.7pp
Market
Passing Yards 200.5
FD
1.88
-114
Projection185.0vs200.5(15.5 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
SZN
59%
13/22
H2H
0%
0/2
ACC
48%
n=549
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL passing yards under plays: 48% of 549 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-1.7pp
EV
-10.8%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-12 on Ward
◆Best lineBetter number: Under 205.5 at 1.88 (-113) (+13.6% EV)
Why this card
›Passing Yards projection 185.0 vs line 200.5
›Model read P(under) 58% sits 9pp off the market. Passing Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: our 15.5 gap is only 8% of the 200.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 49% across 3 books
›Calibration: NFL Passing Yards plays predicted ~61% have hit 48% over 549 graded, of which 275 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.7pp.
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 549 NFL passing yards cards. The model predicted 61% on average and they hit 48%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 275 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 6.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 200.5)49.2%
Fair price1.97 · -103
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/17, 3:19 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line185.00 vs 200.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean179.20
Prior mean186.40
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
205.5
1.90 (-111)1.90
1.88 (-113)1.88
FD★ Best
200.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 38-56%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Best value is the 205.5 at 1.88 (-113) (13.6% EV) - a better number than the 200.5 this card is priced at.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
200
57%
-
42%
1.74 (-136) fair
-
200.5now
58%
-
42%
1.88 (-114)
+8.5%
201
58%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.5pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 89% of the time (mean 1.91 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 48 players quoting player_pass_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
TEN
Out · 2
Jordan ElliottOUT
Elliott (personal) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Kevin Winston Jr.OUT
Winston (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyjae SpearsQ
Spears (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Other · 22
David Martin-Robinson?
Martin-Robinson (hamstring) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Amani Hooker?
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-10.8%
Edge %-1.7pp
Card ID: c-401873003-CamWard-PASSING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:19:42 AM
58.20
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean179.20
prior_mean186.40
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games22
player_espn_id4688380
season2026
-
42%
1.72 (-139) fair
-
205.5best EVtighten
60%
-
40%
1.88 (-113)
+13.6%
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Hooker (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Marcus Harris?
Cor'Dale Flott?
Flott (chest) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice session.
Tony Pollard?
Pollard was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Elic Ayomanor?
Ayomanor caught one of two passes for 17 yards during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday. He also added a tackle on special teams.
Calvin Ridley?
Ridley caught two of three targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Gunnar Helm?
Helm failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson?
Jaylon Jones?
Michael Carter?
Jackie Marshall?
Nicholas Singleton?
Joey Slye?
Slye made his lone field-goal attempt during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Wan'Dale Robinson?
Robinson caught six of seven targets for 53 yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Carnell Tate?
Tate caught one of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Cam Ward?
Ward completed 23 of 36 passes for 170 yards and an interception in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans. He added two yards on his lone carry.
Joshua Williams?
Williams (pectoral) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.
John Franklin-Myers?
Jeffery Simmons?
Anthony Hill Jr.?
Hill tallied eight tackles (three solo) during the Titans' 24-18 loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Drew Moss?
IND
Out · 2
Jaylon CarliesOUT
Carlies (ribs) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Ashton DulinOUT
Dulin (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyler WarrenQ
Warren (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans after being added to the practice report Friday as a limited participant.
Other · 22
Will Mallory?
Mallory (thumb) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Jalen Travis?
Jaylahn Tuimoloau?
Matt Goncalves?
Josh Downs?
Downs (rest/hamstring) upgraded to full participation at Thursday's practice.
Alec Pierce?
Pierce was spotted without a cast on his left ankle/heel Wednesday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.
Keenan Allen?
Allen was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Pharaoh Brown?
Brown was signed to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Dalton Tucker?
Riley Leonard?
Spencer Shrader?
Shrader made all five of his field-goal attempts and converted on his lone point-after try during Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers on Sunday.
Daniel Jones?
Jones completed 24 of 44 passes for 267 yards without a touchdown or interception and added four rushing yards on three carries in Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers.
Jonathan Taylor?
Taylor carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards and caught three of four targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 34-22 loss to Pittsburgh.
Charvarius Ward?
Ward (groin) is active for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh.
Arden Key?
The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.
Tanor Bortolini?
Akeem Davis-Gaither?
Davis-Gaither (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Justin Walley?
Walley recorded eight tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Colts' 30-13 win over the Commanders on Sunday in London.
Seth McGowan?
McGowan turned six carries into 31 yards and caught one of two targets for seven yards during Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders in London. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards.
Laquon Treadwell?
Treadwell caught five of six targets for 42 yards in Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders.
George Gumbs Jr.?
DJ Giddens?
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYTEN
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-51.0
HOMEIND
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL passing yards under) hit 48.1% over 549 graded cards, 549 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
Cam Ward · Passing Yards vs 200.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 179.2
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 179.2
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 179.2
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Cam Ward · Passing Yards vs 200.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 11vsHOUL170Hit
Oct 4@BALL222Miss
Sep 27@NYGL181Hit
Sep 20vsPHIL183Hit
Sep 13vsNYJL140Hit
Jan 4@JAXL52Hit
Dec 28vsNOL251Miss
Dec 21vsKCW228Miss
Dec 14@SFL170Hit
Dec 7@CLEW117Hit
Nov 30vsJAXL141Hit
Nov 23vsSEAL256Miss
Nov 16vsHOUL194Hit
Nov 2vsLACL145Hit
Oct 26@INDL259Miss
Oct 19vsNEL255Miss
Oct 12@LVL222Miss
Oct 5@ARIW265Miss
Sep 28@HOUL108Hit
Sep 21vsINDL219Miss
Sep 14vsLARL175Hit
Sep 7@DENL112Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 200.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
