Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
19%
Market %
16%
Edge
+3.1pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
FD
5.30
+430
Projection0.2vs0.5(0.3 under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
15%
3/20
SZN
14%
3/22
H2H
0%
0/2
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+3.1pp
EV
2.6%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.15u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-12 on WardStake 0.61u
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 17% from 0.19 TD per game over 22 games, priced P(yes) 19%
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.3 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 16% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)16.3%
Fair price6.13 · +513
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/17, 3:19 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.17 vs 0.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean0.400
Prior mean0.118
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
0.5
5.00 (+400)5.00
- (0)1.00
FD★ Best
0.5
5.30 (+430)5.30
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
4.75 (+375)4.75
- (0)1.00
FD implied, with vig (this side): 18.9%
Confidence readOn the fence
19% to hitrange 11-29%price needs 19%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +430 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (70.2% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
32%
-
68%
5.30 (+430)
(+70.2%)
1
5%
27%
68%
15.47 (+1447) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
TEN
Out · 2
Jordan ElliottOUT
Elliott (personal) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Kevin Winston Jr.OUT
Winston (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyjae SpearsQ
Spears (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Other · 22
David Martin-Robinson?
Martin-Robinson (hamstring) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Amani Hooker?
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.61u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.15u
EV %2.6%
Edge %+3.1pp
Card ID: c-401873003-CamWard-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/17/2026, 7:19:42 AM
0.56
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean0.400
prior_mean0.118
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games22
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.186
player_espn_id4688380
season2026
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Hooker (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Marcus Harris?
Cor'Dale Flott?
Flott (chest) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice session.
Tony Pollard?
Pollard was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Elic Ayomanor?
Ayomanor caught one of two passes for 17 yards during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday. He also added a tackle on special teams.
Calvin Ridley?
Ridley caught two of three targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Gunnar Helm?
Helm failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson?
Jaylon Jones?
Michael Carter?
Jackie Marshall?
Nicholas Singleton?
Joey Slye?
Slye made his lone field-goal attempt during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Wan'Dale Robinson?
Robinson caught six of seven targets for 53 yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Carnell Tate?
Tate caught one of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Cam Ward?
Ward completed 23 of 36 passes for 170 yards and an interception in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans. He added two yards on his lone carry.
Joshua Williams?
Williams (pectoral) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.
John Franklin-Myers?
Jeffery Simmons?
Anthony Hill Jr.?
Hill tallied eight tackles (three solo) during the Titans' 24-18 loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Drew Moss?
IND
Out · 2
Jaylon CarliesOUT
Carlies (ribs) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Ashton DulinOUT
Dulin (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyler WarrenQ
Warren (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans after being added to the practice report Friday as a limited participant.
Other · 22
Will Mallory?
Mallory (thumb) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Jalen Travis?
Jaylahn Tuimoloau?
Matt Goncalves?
Josh Downs?
Downs (rest/hamstring) upgraded to full participation at Thursday's practice.
Alec Pierce?
Pierce was spotted without a cast on his left ankle/heel Wednesday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.
Keenan Allen?
Allen was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Pharaoh Brown?
Brown was signed to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Dalton Tucker?
Riley Leonard?
Spencer Shrader?
Shrader made all five of his field-goal attempts and converted on his lone point-after try during Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers on Sunday.
Daniel Jones?
Jones completed 24 of 44 passes for 267 yards without a touchdown or interception and added four rushing yards on three carries in Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers.
Jonathan Taylor?
Taylor carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards and caught three of four targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 34-22 loss to Pittsburgh.
Charvarius Ward?
Ward (groin) is active for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh.
Arden Key?
The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.
Tanor Bortolini?
Akeem Davis-Gaither?
Davis-Gaither (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Justin Walley?
Walley recorded eight tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Colts' 30-13 win over the Commanders on Sunday in London.
Seth McGowan?
McGowan turned six carries into 31 yards and caught one of two targets for seven yards during Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders in London. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards.
Laquon Treadwell?
Treadwell caught five of six targets for 42 yards in Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders.
George Gumbs Jr.?
DJ Giddens?
★ RECENT FORM
Cam Ward · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.4
LAST 10
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.4
SEASON
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.4
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 5.30 (+430) the price needs 19% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYTEN
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-51.0
HOMEIND
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Cam Ward · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
20%1/5 over
Oct 11vsHOUL0Miss
Oct 4@BALL0Miss
Sep 27@NYGL0Miss
Sep 20vsPHIL2Hit
Sep 13vsNYJL0Miss
Jan 4@JAXL1Hit
Dec 28vsNOL0Miss
Dec 21vsKCW0Miss
Dec 14@SFL0Miss
Dec 7@CLEW0Miss
Nov 30vsJAXL0Miss
Nov 23vsSEAL1Hit
Nov 16vsHOUL0Miss
Nov 2vsLACL0Miss
Oct 26@INDL0Miss
Oct 19vsNEL0Miss
Oct 12@LVL0Miss
Oct 5@ARIW0Miss
Sep 28@HOUL0Miss
Sep 21vsINDL0Miss
Sep 14vsLARL0Miss
Sep 7@DENL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 19% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
