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Akeem Davis-Gaither · Tackles + Assists · Bet Data Labs
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
7.5
UNDER
7.5
Our win %
51%
Market %
47%
Edge
+4.2pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 7.5
DK
2.00
+100
Projection7.6vs7.5(0.1 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
SZN
41%
9/22
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+4.2pp
EV
2.2%
Alpha Score
15
Recommended
0.55u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 2.21u
◆Best lineBuy down to 7: an exact 7 returns your stake (9% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
51% to hitrange 40-62%price needs 50%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +100 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 7.6 vs line 7.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 47% across 2 books
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 7.5)46.9%
Fair price2.13 · +113
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/18, 10:02 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line7.62 vs 7.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games22
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Akeem Davis-Gaither · Over the number
model projects 7.62
The best move
Buy this over down to 7: an exact 7 returns your stake instead of losing (9% of outcomes), same win chance as the 7.5.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 47% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
7.5
2.00 (+100)2.00
1.77 (-130)1.77
DK implied, with vig (this side): 50.0%
Line history
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EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)2.21u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.55u
EV %2.2%
Edge %+4.2pp
★ RECENT FORM
Akeem Davis-Gaither · Tackles + Assists vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 8.8
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 8.8
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 8.8
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.00 (+100) the price needs 50% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
TEN
Out · 2
Jordan ElliottOUT
Elliott (personal) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Kevin Winston Jr.OUT
Winston (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyjae SpearsQ
Spears (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Other · 22ShowHide
Joshua Williams?
The Titans activated Williams (pectoral) from reserve/PUP on Saturday.
David Martin-Robinson?
Martin-Robinson (hamstring) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Amani Hooker?
Hooker (concussion) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Colts.
Marcus Harris?
Cor'Dale Flott?
Flott (chest) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice session.
Tony Pollard?
Pollard was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Elic Ayomanor?
Ayomanor caught one of two passes for 17 yards during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday. He also added a tackle on special teams.
Calvin Ridley?
Ridley caught two of three targets for 33 yards during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Gunnar Helm?
Helm failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson?
Jaylon Jones?
Michael Carter?
Jackie Marshall?
Nicholas Singleton?
Joey Slye?
Slye made his lone field-goal attempt during the Titans' 26-3 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Wan'Dale Robinson?
Robinson caught six of seven targets for 53 yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Carnell Tate?
Tate caught one of five targets for six yards in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans.
Cam Ward?
Ward completed 23 of 36 passes for 170 yards and an interception in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Texans. He added two yards on his lone carry.
John Franklin-Myers?
Jeffery Simmons?
Anthony Hill Jr.?
Hill tallied eight tackles (three solo) during the Titans' 24-18 loss to the Ravens on Sunday.
Drew Moss?
IND
Out · 2
Jaylon CarliesOUT
Carlies (ribs) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Ashton DulinOUT
Dulin (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Titans, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Tyler WarrenQ
Warren (groin) is considered a game-time decision for Sunday's contest against the Titans, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.
Other · 22ShowHide
Will Mallory?
The Colts activated Mallory (thumb) from injured reserve Saturday.
Jalen Travis?
Jaylahn Tuimoloau
?
Matt Goncalves?
Josh Downs?
Downs (rest/hamstring) upgraded to full participation at Thursday's practice.
Alec Pierce?
Pierce was spotted without a cast on his left ankle/heel Wednesday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.
Keenan Allen?
Allen was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice due to rest.
Pharaoh Brown?
Brown was signed to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Dalton Tucker?
Riley Leonard?
Spencer Shrader?
Shrader made all five of his field-goal attempts and converted on his lone point-after try during Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers on Sunday.
Daniel Jones?
Jones completed 24 of 44 passes for 267 yards without a touchdown or interception and added four rushing yards on three carries in Sunday's 34-22 loss to the Steelers.
Jonathan Taylor?
Taylor carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards and caught three of four targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 34-22 loss to Pittsburgh.
Charvarius Ward?
Ward (groin) is active for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh.
Arden Key?
The Colts placed Key (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.
Tanor Bortolini?
Akeem Davis-Gaither?
Davis-Gaither (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday.
Justin Walley?
Walley recorded eight tackles (five solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Colts' 30-13 win over the Commanders on Sunday in London.
Seth McGowan?
McGowan turned six carries into 31 yards and caught one of two targets for seven yards during Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders in London. He also returned four kickoffs for 102 yards.
Laquon Treadwell?
Treadwell caught five of six targets for 42 yards in Sunday's 30-13 win over the Commanders.
George Gumbs Jr.?
DJ Giddens?
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYTEN
0-5
L100-5
StreakL5
Road0-0
Run diff-51.0
HOMEIND
2-3
L102-3
StreakL1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Akeem Davis-Gaither · Tackles + Assists vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 7.5
8
14
7
8
7
BALKCHOUWSHPIT
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11@PITL7Miss
Oct 4@WSHW8Hit
Sep 27vsHOUW7Miss
Sep 21@KCL14Hit
Sep 13vsBALL8Hit
Jan 4@LARL5Miss
Dec 28@CINL5Miss
Dec 21vsATLL11Hit
Dec 14@HOUL11Hit
Dec 7vsLARL0Miss
Nov 30@TBL10Hit
Nov 23vsJAXL7Miss
Nov 16vsSFL4Miss
Nov 9@SEAL6Miss
Nov 4@DALW7Miss
Oct 19vsGBL8Hit
Oct 12@INDL7Miss
Oct 5vsTENL5Miss
Sep 26vsSEAL10Hit
Sep 21@SFL8Hit
Sep 14vsCARW6Miss
Sep 7@NOW7Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 7.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 50% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
