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5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
5.5
UNDER
5.5
Our win %
50%
Market %
49%
Edge
+1.2pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 5.5
DK
1.92
-109
Projection5.5vs5.5(on the line)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
48%
10/21
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+1.2pp
EV
-3.9%
Alpha Score
3
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy up to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake (13% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYPIT
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMETB
1-4
L101-4
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-12.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
PIT
Out · 1
Ben SkowronekOUT
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that Skowronek (calf) will not play against the Buccaneers this Sunday, Alan Saunders of SteelersNow.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Pat FreiermuthQ
Freiermuth (calf) was added to the injury report Saturday and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Tampa Bay, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Jalen RamseyQ
Ramsey (wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Jamel DeanQ
Dean (ankle) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Rico DowdleQ
Dowdle (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers after being a full participant in practice Thursday and Friday.
Confidence readOn the fence
50% to hitrange 44-57%price needs 52%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -109 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 5.5 vs line 5.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 49% across 1 book
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 5.5)49.0%
Fair price1.96 · -104
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 10:36 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line5.49 vs 5.5
5 games this season, 16 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games21
Current games5
Prior games16
Prior games fetched16
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Tykee Smith · Under the number
model projects 5.49
The best move
Buy this under up to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake instead of losing (13% of outcomes), same win chance as the 5.5.
Card ID: c-401873002-TykeeSmith-TACKLES_ASSISTSPublished 10/18/2026, 2:36:02 AM
2.00
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games21
current_games5
prior_games16
prior_games_fetched16
current_mean4.80
prior_mean6.25
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4428522
season2026
push-safe
50%
13%
37%
1.74 (-136) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 49% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
5.5
1.84 (-119)1.84
1.92 (-109)1.92
DK implied, with vig (this side): 52.2%
Line history
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EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-3.9%
Edge %+1.2pp
Keeanu BentonQ
questionable
Other · 19
Brandon Johnson?
The Steelers elevated Johnson from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's game against the Bucs.
Lew Nichols?
The Steelers signed Nichols off their practice squad Saturday.
Roman Wilson?
Wilson (finger) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
DK Metcalf?
The Steelers removed Metcalf (illness) from the injury report Saturday, and the veteran wide receiver will be available for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
DeShon Elliott?
Elliott (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Germie Bernard?
Bernard and return specialist Kaden Wetjen are the only wide receivers on Pittsburgh's active roster without injury designations for Week 6.
Darnell Washington?
Washington caught two of three targets for 12 yards during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Kevin Jobity Jr.?
Drew Allar?
Eli Heidenreich?
Terell Smith?
Will Howard?
Jaylen Warren?
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that he views Warren as "our featured player right now," Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports.
Chris Boswell?
Boswell made both of his field-goal attempts and went 4-for-4 on extra-point tries during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers?
Rodgers completed 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns while adding six yards on his only carry in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts.
Michael Pittman Jr.?
The Steelers placed Pittman (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.
Yahya Black?
Robert Spears-Jennings?
Spears-Jennings is on track to start Sunday's contest against the Colts, Nick Farabaugh of PennLive.com reports.
Sean Murphy-Bunting?
The Steelers signed Murphy-Bunting off the Buccaneers' practice squad Monday, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports.
TB
Out · 2
Antoine Winfield Jr.OUT
Winfield (ribs) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Baker MayfieldOUT
Mayfield (thumb) will not play Sunday, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Benjamin MorrisonD
Morrison (quadriceps) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Josiah TrotterQ
Trotter (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Sean TuckerQ
Tucker (quadriceps) is listed as questionable and considered a game-time decision for Sunday's matchup with Pittsburgh, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Ayden GarnesQ
questionable
SirVocea DennisQ
questionable
Other · 18
Josh Williams?
The Bucs elevated Williams from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Easton Stick?
The Bucs elevated Stick from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.
David Sills V?
Sills (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Jalon Daniels?
Daniels will be the Buccaneers' starting quarterback against the Steelers after Baker Mayfield (right thumb) was ruled out.
Luke Haggard?
Billy Schrauth?
DeMonte Capehart?
Jacob Parrish?
Parrish recorded nine total tackles (eight solo) and four passes defensed during Thursday night's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Alex Anzalone?
Anzalone recorded five total tackles (one solo) and an interception during Thursday night's 24-16 win over Dallas.
Ted Hurst III?
Hurst did not record a target during the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday.
Tez Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 64 yards during Thursday's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Cade Otton?
Otton caught three of four targets for 25 yards in a 24-16 win over Dallas on Thursday.
Kenny Gainwell?
Gainwell rushed four times for 18 yards and brought in three of four targets for 10 yards in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Chase McLaughlin?
McLaughlin made his only field-goal attempt and all three extra-point tries Thursday in a 24-16 win against Dallas.
Chris Godwin Jr.?
Godwin secured all three targets for 37 yards and rushed once for three yards in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Emeka Egbuka?
Egbuka secured six of nine targets for 38 yards and rushed once for a 14-yard touchdown in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Bucky Irving?
Irving rushed 21 times for 165 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 10 yards and another score in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday.
Ko Kieft?
Kieft (elbow) does not carry an injury designation into Thursday's game against the Cowboys, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
★ RECENT FORM
Tykee Smith · Tackles + Assists vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 4.8
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 4.8
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 4.8
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.92 (-109) the price needs 52% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Tykee Smith · Tackles + Assists vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Line 5.5
4
5
5
6
4
CINCLEMINGBDAL
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 9@DALW4Hit
Oct 4vsGBL6Miss
Sep 27vsMINL5Hit
Sep 20vsCLEL5Hit
Sep 13@CINL4Hit
Jan 3vsCARW5Hit
Dec 28@MIAL1Hit
Dec 21@CARL4Hit
Dec 7vsNOL3Hit
Nov 30vsARIW2Hit
Nov 24@LARL6Miss
Nov 16@BUFL5Hit
Nov 9vsNEL8Miss
Oct 26@NOW8Miss
Oct 20@DETL13Miss
Oct 12vsSFW6Miss
Oct 5@SEAW6Miss
Sep 28vsPHIL9Miss
Sep 21vsNYJW7Miss
Sep 15@HOUW6Miss
Sep 7@ATLW11Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 5.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 52% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
