Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions under plays: 56% of 2757 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-6.5pp
EV
-14.6%
Alpha Score
33
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (16% push)
Why this card
›Receptions projection 1.4 vs line 1.5
›Model read P(under) 52% sits 12pp off the market. Receptions has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: our 0.1 gap is only 7% of the 1.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(under) 64% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~57% have hit 56% over 2757 graded, of which 1381 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 1.5pp.
›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 3 floor for Receptions. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Thin sample: the projection rests on 5 games. Capped at LEAN until 8.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2757 NFL receptions cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 56%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1381 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 1.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 1.5)63.7%
Fair price2.75 · +175
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/17, 2:47 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.40 vs 1.5
5 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
Current mean1.60
Role shift0
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
1.5
2.57 (+157)2.57
1.50 (-202)1.50
FD
1.5
2.58 (+158)2.58
1.47 (-215)1.47
DK implied, with vig (this side): 66.9%
Confidence readPrice too short
57% to hitrange 49-66%price needs 67%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -202 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this under up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (16% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
1
35%
17%
48%
2.37 (+137) fair
-
1.5now
52%
-
48%
1.50 (-202)
-22.7%
2push-safe
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
PIT
Out · 2
Ben SkowronekOUT
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that Skowronek (calf) will not play against the Buccaneers this Sunday, Alan Saunders of SteelersNow.com reports.
Roman WilsonOUT
Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that Wilson (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Nick Farabaugh of PennLive.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Jalen RamseyQ
Ramsey (wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Jamel DeanQ
Dean (ankle) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
DK MetcalfQ
Metcalf is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers after missing Friday's practice due to an illness.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-14.6%
Edge %-6.5pp
Card ID: c-401873002-TedHurstIII-RECEPTIONSPublished 10/17/2026, 6:47:21 AM
1.50
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games0
prior_games_fetched0
current_mean1.60
prior_meannull
current_weight1
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games5
player_espn_id5220680
season2026
52%
16%
32%
1.62 (-161) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 64% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Rico DowdleQ
Dowdle (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers after being a full participant in practice Thursday and Friday.
Keeanu BentonQ
questionable
Other · 18
DeShon Elliott?
Elliott (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Germie Bernard?
Bernard and return specialist Kaden Wetjen are the only wide receivers on Pittsburgh's active roster without injury designations for Week 6.
Darnell Washington?
Washington caught two of three targets for 12 yards during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Kevin Jobity Jr.?
Drew Allar?
Eli Heidenreich?
Terell Smith?
Will Howard?
Jaylen Warren?
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that he views Warren as "our featured player right now," Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports.
Chris Boswell?
Boswell made both of his field-goal attempts and went 4-for-4 on extra-point tries during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Pat Freiermuth?
Freiermuth caught five of seven targets for 44 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts. He added one yard on his lone carry.
Aaron Rodgers?
Rodgers completed 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns while adding six yards on his only carry in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts.
Michael Pittman Jr.?
The Steelers placed Pittman (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.
Yahya Black?
Robert Spears-Jennings?
Spears-Jennings is on track to start Sunday's contest against the Colts, Nick Farabaugh of PennLive.com reports.
Sean Murphy-Bunting?
The Steelers signed Murphy-Bunting off the Buccaneers' practice squad Monday, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports.
Derrick Harmon?
The Steelers placed Harmon (foot) on injured reserve Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.
Gabriel Rubio?
TB
Out · 2
Antoine Winfield Jr.OUT
Winfield (ribs) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Baker MayfieldOUT
Mayfield (thumb) will not play Sunday, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Benjamin MorrisonD
Morrison (quadriceps) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Josiah TrotterQ
Trotter (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Sean TuckerQ
Tucker (quadriceps) is listed as questionable and considered a game-time decision for Sunday's matchup with Pittsburgh, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Ayden GarnesQ
questionable
SirVocea DennisQ
questionable
Other · 18
David Sills V?
Sills (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Jalon Daniels?
Daniels will be the Buccaneers' starting quarterback against the Steelers after Baker Mayfield (right thumb) was ruled out.
Luke Haggard?
Billy Schrauth?
DeMonte Capehart?
Jacob Parrish?
Parrish recorded nine total tackles (eight solo) and four passes defensed during Thursday night's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Alex Anzalone?
Anzalone recorded five total tackles (one solo) and an interception during Thursday night's 24-16 win over Dallas.
Ted Hurst III?
Hurst did not record a target during the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday.
Tez Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 64 yards during Thursday's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYPIT
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMETB
1-4
L101-4
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-12.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions under) hit 55.9% over 2,757 graded cards, 2,752 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Cade Otton?
Otton caught three of four targets for 25 yards in a 24-16 win over Dallas on Thursday.
Kenny Gainwell?
Gainwell rushed four times for 18 yards and brought in three of four targets for 10 yards in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Chase McLaughlin?
McLaughlin made his only field-goal attempt and all three extra-point tries Thursday in a 24-16 win against Dallas.
Chris Godwin Jr.?
Godwin secured all three targets for 37 yards and rushed once for three yards in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Emeka Egbuka?
Egbuka secured six of nine targets for 38 yards and rushed once for a 14-yard touchdown in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Bucky Irving?
Irving rushed 21 times for 165 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 10 yards and another score in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday.
Ko Kieft?
Kieft (elbow) does not carry an injury designation into Thursday's game against the Cowboys, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Anthony Nelson?
Tykee Smith?
Smith recorded six tackles (four solo) and a forced fumble during the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
★ RECENT FORM
Ted Hurst III · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 under · avg 1.6
LAST 10
40%
2/5 under · avg 1.6
SEASON
40%
2/5 under · avg 1.6
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.50 (-202) the price needs 67% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Ted Hurst III · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
40%2/5 under
Oct 9@DALW0Hit
Oct 4vsGBL2Miss
Sep 27vsMINL1Hit
Sep 20vsCLEL2Miss
Sep 13@CINL3Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 67% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
