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2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
20.5
UNDER
20.5
Our win %
48%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.5pp
Market
Rushing Yards 20.5
FD
1.88
-114
Projection36.4vs20.5(15.9 over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
75%
15/20
SZN
75%
15/20
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
49%
n=1864
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards over plays: 49% of 1864 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.5pp
EV
-10.4%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 36.4 vs line 20.5
›Model read P(over) 67% sits 16pp off the market. Rushing Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: a 20.5 line on Rushing Yards sits below where the model has a read. Opportunity bet, not a priced edge.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 1864 graded, of which 934 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.5pp.
›Baby line: 20.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: player QUESTIONABLE: Rico Dowdle
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ player QUESTIONABLE: Rico Dowdle
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 1864 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 934 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 20.5)50.2%
Fair price1.99 · -101
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/17, 3:08 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line36.40 vs 20.5
2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games2
Prior games6
Prior games fetched18
Current mean18.50
Prior mean60.30
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
21.5
1.90 (-111)1.90
1.88 (-113)1.88
FD★ Best
20.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Confidence readOn the fence
48% to hitrange 40-55%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 20.5 is already the best line on the board (25% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
20
67%
1%
32%
1.49 (-205) fair
-
20.5nowbest EV
67%
-
33%
1.88 (-114)
+25%
21
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
PIT
Out · 2
Ben SkowronekOUT
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that Skowronek (calf) will not play against the Buccaneers this Sunday, Alan Saunders of SteelersNow.com reports.
Roman WilsonOUT
Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that Wilson (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Nick Farabaugh of PennLive.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Jalen RamseyQ
Ramsey (wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Jamel DeanQ
Dean (ankle) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
DK MetcalfQ
Metcalf is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers after missing Friday's practice due to an illness.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-10.4%
Edge %-2.5pp
Card ID: c-401873002-RicoDowdle-RUSHING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:08:46 AM
Variance25.30
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games2
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched18
current_mean18.50
prior_mean60.30
current_weight0.570
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games20
player_espn_id4038815
season2026
66%
1%
33%
1.51 (-196) fair
-
21.5
66%
-
34%
1.90 (-111)
+24.7%
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Rico DowdleQ
Dowdle (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers after being a full participant in practice Thursday and Friday.
Keeanu BentonQ
questionable
Other · 18
DeShon Elliott?
Elliott (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Germie Bernard?
Bernard and return specialist Kaden Wetjen are the only wide receivers on Pittsburgh's active roster without injury designations for Week 6.
Darnell Washington?
Washington caught two of three targets for 12 yards during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Kevin Jobity Jr.?
Drew Allar?
Eli Heidenreich?
Terell Smith?
Will Howard?
Jaylen Warren?
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that he views Warren as "our featured player right now," Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports.
Chris Boswell?
Boswell made both of his field-goal attempts and went 4-for-4 on extra-point tries during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Pat Freiermuth?
Freiermuth caught five of seven targets for 44 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts. He added one yard on his lone carry.
Aaron Rodgers?
Rodgers completed 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns while adding six yards on his only carry in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts.
Michael Pittman Jr.?
The Steelers placed Pittman (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.
Yahya Black?
Robert Spears-Jennings?
Spears-Jennings is on track to start Sunday's contest against the Colts, Nick Farabaugh of PennLive.com reports.
Sean Murphy-Bunting?
The Steelers signed Murphy-Bunting off the Buccaneers' practice squad Monday, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports.
Derrick Harmon?
The Steelers placed Harmon (foot) on injured reserve Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.
Gabriel Rubio?
TB
Out · 2
Antoine Winfield Jr.OUT
Winfield (ribs) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Baker MayfieldOUT
Mayfield (thumb) will not play Sunday, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Benjamin MorrisonD
Morrison (quadriceps) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Josiah TrotterQ
Trotter (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Sean TuckerQ
Tucker (quadriceps) is listed as questionable and considered a game-time decision for Sunday's matchup with Pittsburgh, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Ayden GarnesQ
questionable
SirVocea DennisQ
questionable
Other · 18
David Sills V?
Sills (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Jalon Daniels?
Daniels will be the Buccaneers' starting quarterback against the Steelers after Baker Mayfield (right thumb) was ruled out.
Luke Haggard?
Billy Schrauth?
DeMonte Capehart?
Jacob Parrish?
Parrish recorded nine total tackles (eight solo) and four passes defensed during Thursday night's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Alex Anzalone?
Anzalone recorded five total tackles (one solo) and an interception during Thursday night's 24-16 win over Dallas.
Ted Hurst III?
Hurst did not record a target during the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday.
Tez Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 64 yards during Thursday's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYPIT
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMETB
1-4
L101-4
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-12.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Cade Otton?
Otton caught three of four targets for 25 yards in a 24-16 win over Dallas on Thursday.
Kenny Gainwell?
Gainwell rushed four times for 18 yards and brought in three of four targets for 10 yards in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Chase McLaughlin?
McLaughlin made his only field-goal attempt and all three extra-point tries Thursday in a 24-16 win against Dallas.
Chris Godwin Jr.?
Godwin secured all three targets for 37 yards and rushed once for three yards in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Emeka Egbuka?
Egbuka secured six of nine targets for 38 yards and rushed once for a 14-yard touchdown in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Bucky Irving?
Irving rushed 21 times for 165 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 10 yards and another score in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday.
Ko Kieft?
Kieft (elbow) does not carry an injury designation into Thursday's game against the Cowboys, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Anthony Nelson?
Tykee Smith?
Smith recorded six tackles (four solo) and a forced fumble during the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
★ RECENT FORM
Rico Dowdle · Rushing Yards vs 20.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
50%
1/2 over · avg 18.5
LAST 10
50%
1/2 over · avg 18.5
SEASON
50%
1/2 over · avg 18.5
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Rico Dowdle · Rushing Yards vs 20.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Sep 20@NEL22Hit
Sep 13vsATLW15Miss
Jan 10vsLARL9Miss
Jan 3@TBL10Miss
Dec 28vsSEAL59Hit
Dec 21vsTBW29Hit
Dec 14@NOL49Hit
Nov 30vsLARW58Hit
Nov 25@SFL38Hit
Nov 16@ATLW45Hit
Nov 9vsNOL53Hit
Nov 2@GBW130Hit
Oct 26vsBUFL54Hit
Oct 19@NYJW79Hit
Oct 12vsDALW183Hit
Oct 5vsMIAW206Hit
Sep 28@NEL32Hit
Sep 21vsATLW30Hit
Sep 14@ARIL9Miss
Sep 7@JAXL12Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 20.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards over) hit 49.0% over 1,864 graded cards, 1,860 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
