Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
Jaquan Brisker · Tackles + Assists · Bet Data Labs
5 games this season, 19 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
6.5
UNDER
6.5
Our win %
51%
Market %
50%
Edge
+1.4pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 6.5
DK
1.88
-114
Projection6.6vs6.5(0.1 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
45%
9/20
SZN
42%
10/24
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+1.4pp
EV
-3.5%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBuy down to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake (12% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readOn the fence
51% to hitrange 42-60%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 6.6 vs line 6.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 1 book
›Injury kill: PIT has 7 OUT
›Opponent TB missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ PIT has 7 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 6.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 12:52 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line6.61 vs 6.5
5 games this season, 19 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games24
Current games5
Prior games19
Prior games fetched19
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jaquan Brisker · Over the number
model projects 6.61
The best move
Buy this over down to 6: an exact 6 returns your stake instead of losing (12% of outcomes), same win chance as the 6.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
6push-safe
51%
12%
36%
1.71 (-141) fair
-
6.5now
51%
-
49%
1.88 (-114)
-3.5%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+19.1/ 55
Calibrated win probability 51%
Market+0/ 15
Market consensus 50% on our side
Price+-8.9/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 10; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
6.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-3.5%
Edge %+1.4pp
★ RECENT FORM
Jaquan Brisker · Tackles + Assists vs 6.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 6.8
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 6.8
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 6.8
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYPIT
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMETB
1-4
L101-4
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-12.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
PIT
Out · 7
Eli HeidenreichOUT
Heidenreich (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers.
Drew AllarOUT
Allar (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers.
Will HowardOUT
Howard (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, though he is listed as the team's emergency quarterback.
Ben SkowronekOUT
inactive
Terell SmithOUT
inactive
Sean Murphy-BuntingOUT
inactive
Kevin Jobity Jr.OUT
inactive
Questionable / DTD · 1
Brandin EcholsQ
Echols (hamstring) won't return to Sunday's game against Tampa Bay, Mike DeFabo of The Athletic reports.
Other · 17ShowHide
Pat Freiermuth?
Freiermuth caught two of three targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 26-19 overtime win over the Bucs.
DK Metcalf?
Metcalf caught 11 of 15 targets for 93 yards in Sunday's 26-19 overtime win over the Buccaneers.
Rico Dowdle?
Dowdle carried the ball seven times for 40 yards and caught three of four targets for nine yards in Sunday's 26-19 overtime win over the Buccaneers.
Jaylen Warren?
Warren carried the ball 14 times for 50 yards and caught two of four targets for 28 yards in Sunday's 26-19 overtime win over the Buccaneers.
Aaron Rodgers?
Rodgers completed 33 of 49 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in Sunday's 26-19 overtime win over the Buccaneers.
Darnell Washington?
Washington caught four of six targets for 25 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 26-19 overtime win over the Bucs.
Germie Bernard?
TB
Out · 7
Sean TuckerOUT
Tucker (quadriceps) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Benjamin MorrisonOUT
Morrison (quadriceps) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Antoine Winfield Jr.OUT
inactive
Billy SchrauthOUT
inactive
Baker MayfieldOUT
inactive
Luke HaggardOUT
inactive
DeMonte CapehartOUT
inactive
Other · 18ShowHide
Bernard caught 11 of 12 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 26-19 overtime win over the Bucs.
Jalen Ramsey?
Ramsey (wrist) is active for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers.
Jamel Dean?
Dean (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers.
Keeanu Benton?
Brandon Smith?
The Steelers elevated Smith from the practice squad Saturday ahead of Sunday's game against the Bucs.
Brandon Johnson?
The Steelers have elevated Johnson from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's game against the Bucs.
Lew Nichols?
The Steelers signed Nichols off their practice squad Saturday.
Roman Wilson?
Wilson (finger) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
DeShon Elliott?
Elliott (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Chris Boswell?
Boswell made both of his field-goal attempts and went 4-for-4 on extra-point tries during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Michael Pittman Jr.?
The Steelers placed Pittman (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.
Cade Otton?
Otton caught one of two targets for four yards in Sunday's 26-19 overtime loss to the Steelers.
Chris Godwin Jr.?
Godwin caught four of eight targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 26-19 overtime loss to the Steelers.
Emeka Egbuka?
Egbuka caught seven of 16 targets for 48 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 26-19 overtime loss to the Steelers.
Bucky Irving?
Irving carried the ball 19 times for 46 yards and caught two of three targets for three yards in Sunday's 26-19 overtime loss to the Steelers.
Jalon Daniels?
Daniels completed 22 of 43 passes for 164 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions in Sunday's 26-19 overtime loss to the Steelers. He added 39 rushing yards on four carries.
Kenny Gainwell?
Gainwell rushed two times for 17 yards in Sunday's 26-19 overtime loss to the Steelers. He caught his only target for seven yards.
Josiah Trotter?
Trotter (knee) is active against the Steelers on Sunday.
SirVocea Dennis?
Dennis (ankle/foot) is active for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Ayden Garnes?
Josh Williams?
The Bucs elevated Williams from the practice squad Saturday ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Easton Stick?
The Bucs have elevated Stick from the practice squad ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers.
David Sills V?
Sills (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Jacob Parrish?
Parrish recorded nine total tackles (eight solo) and four passes defensed during Thursday night's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Alex Anzalone?
Anzalone recorded five total tackles (one solo) and an interception during Thursday night's 24-16 win over Dallas.
Ted Hurst III?
Hurst did not record a target during the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday.
Tez Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 64 yards during Thursday's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Chase McLaughlin?
McLaughlin made his only field-goal attempt and all three extra-point tries Thursday in a 24-16 win against Dallas.
Ko Kieft?
Kieft (elbow) does not carry an injury designation into Thursday's game against the Cowboys, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Game log
Jaquan Brisker · Tackles + Assists vs 6.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 6.5
6
6
8
7
7
ATLNECINCLEIND
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11vsINDW7Hit
Oct 2@CLEL7Hit
Sep 27vsCINW8Hit
Sep 20@NEL6Miss
Sep 13vsATLW6Miss
Jan 18vsLARL14Hit
Jan 11vsGBW9Hit
Jan 4vsDETL8Hit
Dec 29@SFL8Hit
Dec 21vsGBW8Hit
Dec 14vsCLEW5Miss
Dec 7@GBL2Miss
Nov 28@PHIW6Miss
Nov 23vsPITW7Hit
Nov 16@MINW3Miss
Nov 9vsNYGW5Miss
Nov 2@CINW6Miss
Oct 26@BALL5Miss
Oct 19vsNOW6Miss
Oct 14@WSHW3Miss
Sep 28@LVW4Miss
Sep 21vsDALW3Miss
Sep 14@DETL9Hit
Sep 9vsMINL5Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 6.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
◆ GRADED · 2026-10-17
This card is settled.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
Outcome
WIN
Actual
7
line 6.5
Units
+0.87u
Price CLV vs close: +0.0% - entry -115 → close -115 · 14 snapshots
