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5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
226.5
UNDER
226.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.5pp
Market
Passing Yards 226.5
DK
1.90
-111
Projection234.1vs226.5(7.6 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
SZN
41%
9/22
H2H
-
ACC
49%
n=484
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL passing yards over plays: 49% of 484 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.5pp
EV
-9.8%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 8-6 on Rodgers
Why this card
›Passing Yards projection 234.1 vs line 226.5
›Edge test fails: our 7.6 gap is only 3% of the 226.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 2 books
›Calibration: NFL Passing Yards plays predicted ~57% have hit 49% over 484 graded, of which 243 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.5pp.
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 484 NFL passing yards cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 243 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 6.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 226.5)49.9%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/17, 3:19 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line234.10 vs 226.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean246.80
Prior mean204
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
226.5
1.90 (-111)1.90
1.88 (-113)1.88
FD
226.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
FANATICS
225.5
1.87 (-115)1.87
1.87 (-115)1.87
DK implied, with vig (this side): 52.6%
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 38-56%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -111 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 226.5 is already the best line on the board (2.6% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
225.5tighten
54%
-
46%
1.87 (-115)
+1.9%
226
54%
1%
46%
1.84 (-119) fair
-
226.5
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.5pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 89% of the time (mean 1.91 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 48 players quoting player_pass_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-9.8%
Edge %-2.5pp
Card ID: c-401873002-AaronRodgers-PASSING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:19:44 AM
54.60
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean246.80
prior_mean204
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games22
player_espn_id8439
season2026
now
best EV
54%
-
46%
1.90 (-111)
+2.6%
227
53%
1%
46%
1.86 (-116) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
★ RECENT FORM
Aaron Rodgers · Passing Yards vs 226.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
60%
3/5 over · avg 246.8
LAST 10
60%
3/5 over · avg 246.8
SEASON
60%
3/5 over · avg 246.8
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.90 (-111) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYPIT
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff+2.0
HOMETB
1-4
L101-4
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-12.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Aaron Rodgers · Passing Yards vs 226.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Oct 11vsINDW235Hit
Oct 2@CLEL299Hit
Sep 27vsCINW292Hit
Sep 20@NEL187Miss
Sep 13vsATLW221Miss
Jan 13vsHOUL146Miss
Jan 5vsBALW294Hit
Dec 28@CLEL168Miss
Dec 21@DETW266Hit
Dec 16vsMIAW224Miss
Dec 7@BALW284Hit
Nov 30vsBUFL117Miss
Nov 16vsCINW116Miss
Nov 10@LACL161Miss
Nov 2vsINDW203Miss
Oct 27vsGBL219Miss
Oct 17@CINL249Hit
Oct 12vsCLEW235Hit
Sep 28vsMINW200Miss
Sep 21@NEW139Miss
Sep 14vsSEAL203Miss
Sep 7@NYJW244Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 226.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL passing yards over) hit 49.0% over 484 graded cards, 482 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
PIT
Out · 2
Ben SkowronekOUT
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that Skowronek (calf) will not play against the Buccaneers this Sunday, Alan Saunders of SteelersNow.com reports.
Roman WilsonOUT
Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that Wilson (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Nick Farabaugh of PennLive.com reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Jalen RamseyQ
Ramsey (wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Jamel DeanQ
Dean (ankle) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
DK MetcalfQ
Metcalf is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers after missing Friday's practice due to an illness.
Rico DowdleQ
Dowdle (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers after being a full participant in practice Thursday and Friday.
Keeanu BentonQ
questionable
Other · 18
DeShon Elliott?
Elliott (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Germie Bernard?
Bernard and return specialist Kaden Wetjen are the only wide receivers on Pittsburgh's active roster without injury designations for Week 6.
Darnell Washington?
Washington caught two of three targets for 12 yards during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Kevin Jobity Jr.?
Drew Allar?
Eli Heidenreich?
Terell Smith?
Will Howard?
Jaylen Warren?
Head coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that he views Warren as "our featured player right now," Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com reports.
Chris Boswell
TB
Out · 2
Antoine Winfield Jr.OUT
Winfield (ribs) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Baker MayfieldOUT
Mayfield (thumb) will not play Sunday, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Benjamin MorrisonD
Morrison (quadriceps) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Josiah TrotterQ
Trotter (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Sean TuckerQ
Tucker (quadriceps) is listed as questionable and considered a game-time decision for Sunday's matchup with Pittsburgh, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Ayden GarnesQ
questionable
SirVocea Dennis
?
Boswell made both of his field-goal attempts and went 4-for-4 on extra-point tries during the Steelers' 34-22 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Pat Freiermuth?
Freiermuth caught five of seven targets for 44 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts. He added one yard on his lone carry.
Aaron Rodgers?
Rodgers completed 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns while adding six yards on his only carry in Sunday's 34-22 win over the Colts.
Michael Pittman Jr.?
The Steelers placed Pittman (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.
Yahya Black?
Robert Spears-Jennings?
Spears-Jennings is on track to start Sunday's contest against the Colts, Nick Farabaugh of PennLive.com reports.
Sean Murphy-Bunting?
The Steelers signed Murphy-Bunting off the Buccaneers' practice squad Monday, Teresa Varley of the Steelers' official site reports.
Derrick Harmon?
The Steelers placed Harmon (foot) on injured reserve Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.
Gabriel Rubio?
Q
questionable
Other · 18
David Sills V?
Sills (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Jalon Daniels?
Daniels will be the Buccaneers' starting quarterback against the Steelers after Baker Mayfield (right thumb) was ruled out.
Luke Haggard?
Billy Schrauth?
DeMonte Capehart?
Jacob Parrish?
Parrish recorded nine total tackles (eight solo) and four passes defensed during Thursday night's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Alex Anzalone?
Anzalone recorded five total tackles (one solo) and an interception during Thursday night's 24-16 win over Dallas.
Ted Hurst III?
Hurst did not record a target during the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday.
Tez Johnson?
Johnson caught his lone target for 64 yards during Thursday's 24-16 win over the Cowboys.
Cade Otton?
Otton caught three of four targets for 25 yards in a 24-16 win over Dallas on Thursday.
Kenny Gainwell?
Gainwell rushed four times for 18 yards and brought in three of four targets for 10 yards in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Chase McLaughlin?
McLaughlin made his only field-goal attempt and all three extra-point tries Thursday in a 24-16 win against Dallas.
Chris Godwin Jr.?
Godwin secured all three targets for 37 yards and rushed once for three yards in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Emeka Egbuka?
Egbuka secured six of nine targets for 38 yards and rushed once for a 14-yard touchdown in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday night.
Bucky Irving?
Irving rushed 21 times for 165 yards and a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 10 yards and another score in the Buccaneers' 24-16 win over the Cowboys on Thursday.
Ko Kieft?
Kieft (elbow) does not carry an injury designation into Thursday's game against the Cowboys, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Anthony Nelson?
Tykee Smith?
Smith recorded six tackles (four solo) and a forced fumble during the Buccaneers' 17-14 loss to the Packers on Sunday.
