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TreVeyon Henderson · Rush + Rec Yards · Bet Data Labs
4 games this season, 21 games last season, 50% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
41.5
UNDER
41.5
Our win %
55%
Market %
50%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush + Rec Yards 41.5
FD
1.90
-111
Projection50.7vs41.5(9.2 over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
SZN
60%
15/25
H2H
100%
2/2
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
3.8%
Alpha Score
5
Recommended
1.04u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 6-6 on HendersonStake 4.17u
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
★ RECENT FORM
TreVeyon Henderson · Rush + Rec Yards vs 41.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
50%
2/4 over · avg 46.3
LAST 10
50%
2/4 over · avg 46.3
SEASON
50%
2/4 over · avg 46.3
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.90 (-111) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
TreVeyon Henderson · Rush + Rec Yards vs 41.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Line 41.5
45
76
29
42
38
SEAPITJAXBUFLV
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11vsLVW38Miss
Oct 4@BUFW42Hit
Sep 27@JAXL29Miss
Sep 20vsPITW76Hit
Feb 8vsSEAL45Hit
Jan 25@DENW5Miss
Jan 18vsHOUW23Miss
Jan 12vsLACW36Miss
Jan 4vsMIAW53Hit
Dec 28@NYJW82Hit
Dec 22@BALW12Miss
Dec 14vsBUFL161Hit
Dec 2vsNYGW86Hit
Nov 23@CINW81Hit
Nov 14vsNYJW93Hit
Nov 9@TBW150Hit
Nov 2vsATLW87Hit
Oct 26vsCLEW75Hit
Oct 19@TENW5Miss
Oct 12@NOW36Miss
Oct 6@BUFW27Miss
Sep 28vsCARW46Hit
Sep 21vsPITL47Hit
Sep 14@MIAW40Miss
Sep 7vsLVL51Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 41.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYJ
Out · 4
Dylan ParhamOUT
Parham (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Joseph OssaiOUT
Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Adonai MitchellOUT
Mitchell (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Breece HallOUT
Hall (quadriceps) is out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Omar Cooper Jr.Q
Cooper (ankle) was activated from injured reserve Saturday.
Kenyon Sadiq
Confidence readOn the fence
55% to hitrange 47-62%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -111 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Rush + Rec Yards projection 50.7 vs line 41.5
›Model read P(over) 60% sits 10pp off the market. Rush + Rec Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 1 book
›Injury kill: player QUESTIONABLE: TreVeyon Henderson
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ player QUESTIONABLE: TreVeyon Henderson
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 41.5)49.6%
Fair price2.02 · +102
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 12:51 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line50.69 vs 41.5
4 games this season, 21 games last season, 50% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games25
Current games4
Prior games21
Prior games fetched21
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
TreVeyon Henderson · Over the number
model projects 50.69
The best move
The 41.5 is already the best line on the board (13.1% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
41
60%
1%
39%
1.66 (-151) fair
-
41.5nowbest EV
60%
-
40%
1.90 (-111)
+13.1%
42
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 5?
TOTAL
5/100
Win prob+28.8/ 55
Calibrated win probability 55%
Market+-1.2/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (50% our side)
Price+9.4/ 15
3.8% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 37; published as 5 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Card ID: c-401873001-TreVeyonHenderson-RUSH_REC_YARDSPublished 10/18/2026, 4:51:58 AM
25.00
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_REC_YARDS
games25
current_games4
prior_games21
prior_games_fetched21
current_mean46.25
prior_mean59.10
current_weight0.500
role_shift0
variance_floor25
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4432710
season2026
58%
1%
40%
1.69 (-144) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD★ Best
41.5
1.90 (-111)1.90
1.87 (-115)1.87
FD implied, with vig (this side): 52.6%
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)4.17u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.04u
EV %3.8%
Edge %+5.0pp
Q
Sadiq (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots after logging a full practice Friday.
Dane BeltonQ
questionable
Other · 18
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is expected to retain a regular role in three-receiver sets Sunday against the Patriots after the Jets ruled out Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
NE
Out · 2
Karon PruntyOUT
Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Questionable / DTD · 6
A.J. BrownQ
The Patriots activated Brown (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday, but he's still listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Will CampbellQ
Campbell (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
TreVeyon HendersonQ
Henderson said Friday that an MRI revealed he sustained a high-ankle sprain but that he is "hoping to play" Sunday against the Jets, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
Craig WoodsonQ
questionable
Christian EllissQ
questionable
Channing CanadaQ
questionable
Other · 17
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Marcus Bryant?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon
?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Behren Morton?
Dametrious Crownover?
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Romeo Doubs?
Doubs caught one of three targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
