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5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
38%
Market %
31%
Edge
+7.5pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
DK
2.70
+170
Projection0.4vs0.5(0.1 under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
25%
5/20
SZN
27%
6/22
H2H
-
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+7.5pp
EV
3.6%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.53u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 0-6 on DoubsStake 2.11u
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 37% from 0.46 TD per game over 22 games, priced P(yes) 38%
›Model read P(yes) 37% sits 6pp off the market. Anytime TD has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.1 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 31% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)30.9%
Fair price3.24 · +224
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/17, 3:19 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.37 vs 0.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean0.400
Prior mean0.412
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
2.70 (+170)2.70
- (0)1.00
FD
0.5
2.70 (+170)2.70
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
2.65 (+165)2.65
- (0)1.00
DK implied, with vig (this side): 37.0%
Confidence readOn the fence
38% to hitrange 30-47%price needs 37%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +170 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (13.1% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
42%
-
58%
2.70 (+170)
(+13.1%)
1
5%
37%
58%
11.95 (+1095) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYJ
Out · 4
Dylan ParhamOUT
Parham (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Joseph OssaiOUT
Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Adonai MitchellOUT
Mitchell (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Breece HallOUT
Hall (quadriceps) is out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Kenyon SadiqQ
Sadiq (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots after logging a full practice Friday.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)2.11u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.53u
EV %3.6%
Edge %+7.5pp
Card ID: c-401873001-RomeoDoubs-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/17/2026, 7:19:42 AM
0.44
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean0.400
prior_mean0.412
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games22
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.464
player_espn_id4361432
season2026
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Dane Belton
Q
questionable
Other · 19
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is set to continue as the No. 2 wide receiver for the Jets' game against the Patriots on Sunday.
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Omar Cooper Jr.?
Cooper (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at New England.
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
NE
Out · 2
Karon PruntyOUT
Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Will CampbellQ
Campbell (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
TreVeyon HendersonQ
Henderson said Friday that an MRI revealed he sustained a high-ankle sprain but that he is "hoping to play" Sunday against the Jets, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
Craig WoodsonQ
questionable
Christian EllissQ
questionable
Channing CanadaQ
questionable
Other · 18
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
A.J. Brown?
Brown (ankle) practiced all three days this week, Mark Daniels of MassLive.com reports.
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
★ RECENT FORM
Romeo Doubs · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.4
LAST 10
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.4
SEASON
20%
1/5 over · avg 0.4
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.70 (+170) the price needs 37% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Romeo Doubs · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
20%1/5 over
Oct 11vsLVW0Miss
Oct 4@BUFW2Hit
Sep 27@JAXL0Miss
Sep 20vsPITW0Miss
Sep 10@SEAL0Miss
Jan 11@CHIL1Hit
Dec 28vsBALL0Miss
Dec 21@CHIL1Hit
Dec 14@DENL0Miss
Dec 7vsCHIW0Miss
Nov 27@DETW1Hit
Nov 23vsMINW0Miss
Nov 16@NYGW0Miss
Nov 11vsPHIL0Miss
Nov 2vsCARL0Miss
Oct 27@PITW0Miss
Oct 19@ARIW0Miss
Oct 12vsCINW0Miss
Sep 29@DAL-3Hit
Sep 21@CLEL0Miss
Sep 12vsWSHW1Hit
Sep 7vsDETW0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 37% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Marcus Bryant
?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Behren Morton?
Dametrious Crownover?
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Romeo Doubs?
Doubs caught one of three targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
