Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rhamondre Stevenson · Rush + Rec Yards · Bet Data Labs
5 games this season, 18 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
86.5
UNDER
86.5
Our win %
55%
Market %
50%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush + Rec Yards 86.5
FD
1.88
-113
Projection69.0vs86.5(17.5 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
75%
15/20
SZN
74%
17/23
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
3.3%
Alpha Score
37
Recommended
0.93u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 10-2 on StevensonStake 3.71u
Why this card
›Rush + Rec Yards projection 69.0 vs line 86.5
›Model read P(under) 65% sits 15pp off the market. Rush + Rec Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 1 book
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 86.5)49.8%
Fair price1.99 · -101
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 3:08 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line69.00 vs 86.5
5 games this season, 18 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games23
Current games5
Prior games18
Prior games fetched18
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD★ Best
86.5
1.87 (-115)1.87
1.88 (-113)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
55% to hitrange 45-63%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 86.5 is already the best line on the board (22.8% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
86
64%
1%
35%
1.54 (-185) fair
-
86.5nowbest EV
65%
-
35%
1.88 (-113)
+22.8%
87
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)3.71u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.93u
EV %3.3%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401873001-RhamondreStevenson-RUSH_REC_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:08:46 AM
35.11
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_REC_YARDS
games23
current_games5
prior_games18
prior_games_fetched18
current_mean67.60
prior_mean71.72
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor25
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4569173
season2026
65%
1%
34%
1.52 (-191) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYJ
Out · 4
Dylan ParhamOUT
Parham (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Joseph OssaiOUT
Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Adonai MitchellOUT
Mitchell (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Breece HallOUT
Hall (quadriceps) is out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Kenyon SadiqQ
Sadiq (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots after logging a full practice Friday.
Dane BeltonQ
questionable
Other · 19
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is set to continue as the No. 2 wide receiver for the Jets' game against the Patriots on Sunday.
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Omar Cooper Jr.?
Cooper (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at New England.
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
NE
Out · 2
Karon PruntyOUT
Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Will CampbellQ
Campbell (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
TreVeyon HendersonQ
Henderson said Friday that an MRI revealed he sustained a high-ankle sprain but that he is "hoping to play" Sunday against the Jets, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
Craig WoodsonQ
questionable
Christian EllissQ
questionable
Channing CanadaQ
questionable
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
Other · 18
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
A.J. Brown?
Brown (ankle) practiced all three days this week, Mark Daniels of MassLive.com reports.
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Marcus Bryant?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Behren Morton?
Dametrious Crownover?
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Romeo Doubs?
Doubs caught one of three targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
★ RECENT FORM
Rhamondre Stevenson · Rush + Rec Yards vs 86.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 67.6
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 67.6
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 67.6
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Rhamondre Stevenson · Rush + Rec Yards vs 86.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 11vsLVW85Hit
Oct 4@BUFW74Hit
Sep 27@JAXL38Hit
Sep 20vsPITW46Hit
Sep 10@SEAL95Miss
Feb 8vsSEAL63Hit
Jan 25@DENW71Hit
Jan 18vsHOUW81Hit
Jan 12vsLACW128Miss
Jan 4vsMIAW153Miss
Dec 28@NYJW102Miss
Dec 22@BALW78Hit
Dec 14vsBUFL77Hit
Dec 2vsNYGW80Hit
Nov 23@CINW10Hit
Oct 26vsCLEW49Hit
Oct 19@TENW88Miss
Oct 12@NOW18Hit
Oct 6@BUFW27Hit
Sep 28vsCARW41Hit
Sep 21vsPITL56Hit
Sep 14@MIAW142Miss
Sep 7vsLVL27Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 86.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
