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Minkah Fitzpatrick · Tackles + Assists · Bet Data Labs
3 games this season, 14 games last season, 43% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
5.5
UNDER
5.5
Our win %
51%
Market %
46%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 5.5
DK
2.05
+105
Projection6.3vs5.5(0.8 over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
47%
8/17
SZN
47%
8/17
H2H
100%
1/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
4.4%
Alpha Score
19
Recommended
1.06u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 4.22u
◆Best lineBuy down to 5: an exact 5 returns your stake (8% push)
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 6.3 vs line 5.5
›Model read P(over) 57% sits 11pp off the market. Tackles + Assists has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 46% across 2 books
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 5.5)45.9%
Fair price2.18 · +118
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/17, 6:07 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line6.35 vs 5.5
3 games this season, 14 games last season, 43% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games17
Current games3
Prior games14
Prior games fetched14
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
5.5
2.05 (+105)2.05
1.74 (-136)1.74
DK implied, with vig (this side): 48.8%
Confidence readOn the fence
51% to hitrange 39-62%price needs 49%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +105 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 46% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Q
Sadiq (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots after logging a full practice Friday.
Dane BeltonQ
questionable
Other · 18
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is expected to retain a regular role in three-receiver sets Sunday against the Patriots after the Jets ruled out Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
NE
Out · 2
Karon PruntyOUT
Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Questionable / DTD · 6
A.J. BrownQ
The Patriots activated Brown (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday, but he's still listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Will CampbellQ
Campbell (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
TreVeyon HendersonQ
Henderson said Friday that an MRI revealed he sustained a high-ankle sprain but that he is "hoping to play" Sunday against the Jets, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
Craig WoodsonQ
questionable
Christian EllissQ
questionable
Channing CanadaQ
questionable
Other · 17
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Marcus Bryant?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Eli Raridon
?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Behren Morton?
Dametrious Crownover?
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Romeo Doubs?
Doubs caught one of three targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
★ RECENT FORM
Minkah Fitzpatrick · Tackles + Assists vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
33%
1/3 over · avg 7.0
LAST 10
33%
1/3 over · avg 7.0
SEASON
33%
1/3 over · avg 7.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.05 (+105) the price needs 49% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Minkah Fitzpatrick · Tackles + Assists vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 11vsCLEW5Miss
Oct 4@CHIL16Hit
Sep 13@TENW0Miss
Dec 16@PITL6Hit
Dec 7@NYJW4Miss
Nov 30vsNOW7Hit
Nov 16vsWSHW9Hit
Nov 9vsBUFW6Hit
Oct 31vsBALL5Miss
Oct 26@ATLW3Miss
Oct 19@CLEL4Miss
Oct 12vsLACL5Miss
Oct 5@CARL9Hit
Sep 29vsNYJW2Miss
Sep 19@BUFL5Miss
Sep 14vsNEL8Hit
Sep 7@INDL9Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 5.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 49% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
