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3 games this season, 6 games last season, 67% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
53%
Market %
57%
Edge
-4.5pp
Market
Receptions 1.5
FD
1.63
-158
Projection2.2vs1.5(0.7 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
69%
11/16
SZN
69%
11/16
H2H
100%
1/1
ACC
50%
n=2773
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions over plays: 50% of 2773 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-4.5pp
EV
-13.9%
Alpha Score
20
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-4 on Taylor
◆Best lineBuy down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (13% push)
Why this card
›Receptions projection 2.2 vs line 1.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 57% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~58% have hit 50% over 2773 graded, of which 1390 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.7pp.
›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 3 floor for Receptions. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2773 NFL receptions cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 50%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1390 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 1.5)57.2%
Fair price1.75 · -134
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 11:11 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line2.20 vs 1.5
3 games this season, 6 games last season, 67% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games3
Prior games6
Prior games fetched13
Current mean1.70
Prior mean3.40
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD★ Best
1.5
1.63 (-158)1.63
2.18 (+118)2.18
FD implied, with vig (this side): 61.2%
Confidence readPrice too short
53% to hitrange 44-61%price needs 61%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -158 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this over down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (13% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
1push-safe
60%
13%
26%
1.44 (-228) fair
-
1.5now
60%
-
40%
1.63 (-158)
-1.4%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYJ
Out · 4
Dylan ParhamOUT
Parham (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Joseph OssaiOUT
Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Adonai MitchellOUT
Mitchell (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Breece HallOUT
Hall (quadriceps) is out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Kenyon SadiqQ
Sadiq (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots after logging a full practice Friday.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 57% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Dane Belton
Q
questionable
Other · 19
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is set to continue as the No. 2 wide receiver for the Jets' game against the Patriots on Sunday.
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Omar Cooper Jr.?
Cooper (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at New England.
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
NE
Out · 2
Karon PruntyOUT
Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Will CampbellQ
Campbell (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
TreVeyon HendersonQ
Henderson said Friday that an MRI revealed he sustained a high-ankle sprain but that he is "hoping to play" Sunday against the Jets, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
Craig WoodsonQ
questionable
Christian EllissQ
questionable
Channing CanadaQ
questionable
Other · 18
A.J. Brown?
Brown (ankle) will likely be activated from injured reserve to play Sunday against the Jets, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions over) hit 50.4% over 2,773 graded cards, 2,766 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Marcus Bryant?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Behren Morton?
Dametrious Crownover?
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Romeo Doubs?
Doubs caught one of three targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
★ RECENT FORM
Mason Taylor · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
67%
2/3 over · avg 1.7
LAST 10
67%
2/3 over · avg 1.7
SEASON
67%
2/3 over · avg 1.7
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.63 (-158) the price needs 61% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Mason Taylor · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Oct 11vsCLEW3Hit
Sep 20vsGBL0Miss
Sep 13@TENW2Hit
Dec 7vsMIAL5Hit
Nov 30vsATLW2Hit
Nov 23@BALL3Hit
Nov 14@NEL4Hit
Nov 9vsCLEW1Miss
Oct 26@CINW5Hit
Oct 19vsCARL3Hit
Oct 12vsDENL1Miss
Oct 5vsDALL9Hit
Sep 29@MIAL5Hit
Sep 21@TBL4Hit
Sep 14vsBUFL1Miss
Sep 7vsPITL1Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 61% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
