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Jamien Sherwood · Tackles + Assists · Bet Data Labs
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
7.5
UNDER
7.5
Our win %
55%
Market %
50%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 7.5
DK
1.89
-112
Projection8.2vs7.5(0.7 over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
SZN
55%
12/22
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
3.8%
Alpha Score
39
Recommended
1.07u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 4.27u
◆Best lineBuy down to 7: an exact 7 returns your stake (9% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYJ
Out · 4
Dylan ParhamOUT
Parham (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Joseph OssaiOUT
Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Adonai MitchellOUT
Mitchell (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Breece HallOUT
Hall (quadriceps) is out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Kenyon SadiqQ
Sadiq (concussion) is listed as questionable but is in line to play in Sunday's game at New England, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Confidence readOn the fence
55% to hitrange 44-65%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -112 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 8.2 vs line 7.5
›Model read P(over) 57% sits 7pp off the market. Tackles + Assists has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 2 books
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 7.5)49.8%
Fair price2.01 · +101
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/18, 10:02 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line8.21 vs 7.5
5 games this season, 17 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games22
Current games5
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Jamien Sherwood · Over the number
model projects 8.21
The best move
Buy this over down to 7: an exact 7 returns your stake instead of losing (9% of outcomes), same win chance as the 7.5.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
7.5
1.89 (-112)1.89
1.87 (-115)1.87
DK implied, with vig (this side): 52.8%
Line history
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EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)4.27u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.07u
EV %3.8%
Edge %+5.0pp
Omar Cooper Jr.
Q
Cooper (ankle) was activated from injured reserve Saturday.
Dane BeltonQ
questionable
Other · 18ShowHide
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is expected to retain a regular role in three-receiver sets Sunday against the Patriots after the Jets ruled out Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
NE
Out · 2
Karon PruntyOUT
Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Questionable / DTD · 6
A.J. BrownQ
Brown (ankle), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets, is expected to be active and play "a good amount" of snaps, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Will CampbellQ
Campbell (knee), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets, is expected to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
TreVeyon HendersonQ
Henderson (ankle), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets, is likely to suit up, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Craig WoodsonQ
questionable
Christian EllissQ
questionable
Channing CanadaQ
questionable
Other · 17ShowHide
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Marcus Bryant?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Behren Morton?
Dametrious Crownover?
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Romeo Doubs?
Doubs caught one of three targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
★ RECENT FORM
Jamien Sherwood · Tackles + Assists vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 7.0
LAST 10
40%
2/5 over · avg 7.0
SEASON
40%
2/5 over · avg 7.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.89 (-112) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jamien Sherwood · Tackles + Assists vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Line 7.5
4
6
8
13
4
TENGBDETCHICLE
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11vsCLEW4Miss
Oct 4@CHIL13Hit
Sep 27@DETL8Hit
Sep 20vsGBL6Miss
Sep 13@TENW4Miss
Jan 4@BUFL7Miss
Dec 28vsNEL7Miss
Dec 21@NOL11Hit
Dec 14@JAXL8Hit
Dec 7vsMIAL15Hit
Nov 30vsATLW4Miss
Nov 23@BALL13Hit
Nov 14@NEL8Hit
Nov 9vsCLEW6Miss
Oct 26@CINW5Miss
Oct 19vsCARL10Hit
Oct 12vsDENL13Hit
Oct 5vsDALL7Miss
Sep 29@MIAL10Hit
Sep 21@TBL11Hit
Sep 14vsBUFL13Hit
Sep 7vsPITL6Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 7.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
