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5 games this season, 15 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
36%
Market %
39%
Edge
-2.7pp
Market
Receptions 1.5
FD
2.42
+142
Projection1.8vs1.5(0.3 over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
40%
8/20
SZN
40%
8/20
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
50%
n=2773
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions over plays: 50% of 2773 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.7pp
EV
-13.1%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-4 on Williams
◆Best lineBuy down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (14% push)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYJ
Out · 6
Nahshon WrightOUT
inactive
Adonai MitchellOUT
inactive
Joseph OssaiOUT
inactive
Dylan ParhamOUT
inactive
Breece HallOUT
inactive
Jack HeflinOUT
inactive
Other · 19ShowHide
Confidence readOn the fence
36% to hitrange 26-45%price needs 41%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +142 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Receptions projection 1.8 vs line 1.5
›Model read P(over) 54% sits 16pp off the market. Receptions has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 39% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~58% have hit 50% over 2773 graded, of which 1390 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.7pp.
›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 3 floor for Receptions. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: NYJ has 6 OUT
›Opponent NE missing 6, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ NYJ has 6 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2773 NFL receptions cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 50%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1390 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 1.5)38.6%
Fair price2.59 · +159
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 12:52 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.80 vs 1.5
5 games this season, 15 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games15
Prior games fetched15
Current mean2.20
Prior mean1.70
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Isaiah Williams · Over the number
model projects 1.8
The best move
Buy this over down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (14% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 39% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD★ Best
1.5
2.42 (+142)2.42
1.52 (-192)1.52
FD implied, with vig (this side): 41.3%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Cooper (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Patriots.
Kenyon Sadiq?
Sadiq (concussion) is active for Sunday's game against the Patriots.
Dane Belton?
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is expected to retain a regular role in three-receiver sets Sunday against the Patriots after the Jets ruled out Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
NE
Out · 6
Behren MortonOUT
Morton (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Patriots' emergency third quarterback against the Jets on Sunday.
Karon PruntyOUT
inactive
Tanner ArkinOUT
inactive
Channing CanadaOUT
inactive
Dametrious CrownoverOUT
inactive
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
inactive
Other · 19ShowHide
Craig Woodson?
Christian Elliss?
TreVeyon Henderson?
Henderson (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Jets.
A.J. Brown?
Brown (ankle) is listed as active Sunday against the Jets.
Will Campbell?
Campbell (knee), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets, is expected to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Marcus Bryant?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions over) hit 50.4% over 2,773 graded cards, 2,766 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
Isaiah Williams · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 2.2
LAST 10
40%
2/5 over · avg 2.2
SEASON
40%
2/5 over · avg 2.2
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 2.42 (+142) the price needs 41% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Isaiah Williams · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Line 1.5
1
6
1
2
1
TENGBDETCHICLE
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11vsCLEW1Miss
Oct 4@CHIL2Hit
Sep 27@DETL1Miss
Sep 20vsGBL6Hit
Sep 13@TENW1Miss
Jan 4@BUFL5Hit
Dec 28vsNEL4Hit
Dec 21@NOL4Hit
Dec 14@JAXL6Hit
Dec 7vsMIAL2Hit
Nov 30vsATLW0Miss
Nov 23@BALL0Miss
Nov 14@NEL1Miss
Nov 9vsCLEW1Miss
Oct 26@CINW3Hit
Oct 19vsCARL0Miss
Oct 12vsDENL0Miss
Sep 29@MIAL0Miss
Sep 21@TBL0Miss
Sep 14vsBUFL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 41% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
