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Receiving Yards 9.5 · NYJ · @ NE · Jets at Patriots
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
9.5
UNDER
9.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.8pp
Market
Receiving Yards 9.5
FD
1.88
-113
Projection28.2vs9.5(18.7 over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
50%
10/20
SZN
50%
10/20
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
49%
n=4242
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards over plays: 49% of 4242 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.8pp
EV
-11.0%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-4 on Williams
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Confidence readPrice too short
47% to hitrange 41-53%price needs 53%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 28.2 vs line 9.5
›Model read P(over) 71% sits 21pp off the market. Receiving Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 4242 graded, of which 2125 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.8pp.
›Baby line: 9.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: NYJ has 6 OUT
›Opponent NE missing 6, context on this card and not a knock against it
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ NYJ has 6 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 4242 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 2125 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.8pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 9.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 12:52 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line28.20 vs 9.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched15
Current mean30.20
Prior mean12.90
›All model inputs (15)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Isaiah Williams · Over the number
model projects 28.2
The best move
The 9.5 is already the best line on the board (33.1% EV). No better rung available.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
FD★ Best
9.5
1.88 (-113)1.88
1.88 (-113)1.88
FD implied, with vig (this side): 53.1%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards over) hit 49.3% over 4,242 graded cards, 4,234 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYJ
Out · 6
Nahshon WrightOUT
inactive
Adonai MitchellOUT
inactive
Joseph OssaiOUT
inactive
Dylan ParhamOUT
inactive
Breece HallOUT
inactive
Jack HeflinOUT
inactive
Other · 19ShowHide
Omar Cooper Jr.?
Cooper (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Patriots.
Kenyon Sadiq?
Sadiq (concussion) is active for Sunday's game against the Patriots.
Dane Belton?
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is expected to retain a regular role in three-receiver sets Sunday against the Patriots after the Jets ruled out Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
NE
Out · 6
Channing CanadaOUT
Canada (hamstring) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Behren MortonOUT
Morton (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Patriots' emergency third quarterback against the Jets on Sunday.
Karon PruntyOUT
inactive
Tanner ArkinOUT
inactive
Dametrious CrownoverOUT
inactive
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
inactive
Other · 19ShowHide
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson will be joined by TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) in the backfield Sunday against the Jets, Evan Lazar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Will Campbell?
Campbell (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Craig Woodson?
Christian Elliss?
TreVeyon Henderson?
Henderson (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Jets.
A.J. Brown?
Brown (ankle) is listed as active Sunday against the Jets.
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Marcus Bryant?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
★ RECENT FORM
Isaiah Williams · Receiving Yards vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 over · avg 30.2
LAST 10
80%
4/5 over · avg 30.2
SEASON
80%
4/5 over · avg 30.2
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Isaiah Williams · Receiving Yards vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Line 9.5
7
34
21
73
16
TENGBDETCHICLE
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Oct 11vsCLEW16Hit
Oct 4@CHIL73Hit
Sep 27@DETL21Hit
Sep 20vsGBL34Hit
Sep 13@TENW7Miss
Jan 4@BUFL24Hit
Dec 28vsNEL30Hit
Dec 21@NOL25Hit
Dec 14@JAXL53Hit
Dec 7vsMIAL24Hit
Nov 30vsATLW0Miss
Nov 23@BALL0Miss
Nov 14@NEL2Miss
Nov 9vsCLEW4Miss
Oct 26@CINW31Hit
Oct 19vsCARL0Miss
Oct 12vsDENL0Miss
Sep 29@MIAL0Miss
Sep 21@TBL0Miss
Sep 14vsBUFL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 9.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
