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5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
5.5
UNDER
5.5
Our win %
48%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.3pp
Market
Rushing Yards 5.5
FD
1.88
-113
Projection5.0vs5.5(0.5 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
SZN
43%
9/21
H2H
0%
0/2
ACC
54%
n=990
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL rushing yards under plays: 54% of 990 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.3pp
EV
-10.2%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-2 on Davis
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
★ RECENT FORM
Isaiah Davis · Rushing Yards vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 1.6
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 1.6
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 1.6
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-113) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Isaiah Davis · Rushing Yards vs 5.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Line 5.5
0
0
0
0
8
TENGBDETCHICLE
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the under, red did not.
Oct 11vsCLEW8Miss
Oct 4@CHIL0Hit
Sep 27@DETL0Hit
Sep 20vsGBL0Hit
Sep 13@TENW0Hit
Dec 28vsNEL11Miss
Dec 21@NOL8Miss
Dec 14@JAXL58Miss
Dec 7vsMIAL22Miss
Nov 30vsATLW0Hit
Nov 23@BALL7Miss
Nov 14@NEL11Miss
Nov 9vsCLEW10Miss
Oct 26@CINW65Miss
Oct 19vsCARL10Miss
Oct 12vsDENL2Hit
Oct 5vsDALL5Hit
Sep 29@MIAL9Miss
Sep 21@TBL0Hit
Sep 14vsBUFL0Hit
Sep 7vsPITL18Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 5.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Confidence readOn the fence
48% to hitrange 42-54%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -113 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Rushing Yards projection 5.0 vs line 5.5
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Rushing Yards plays predicted ~57% have hit 54% over 990 graded, of which 496 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 2.9pp.
›Baby line: 5.5 is below the 40 floor for Rushing Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 990 NFL rushing yards cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 54%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 496 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 2.9pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 5.5)50.0%
Fair price2.00 · +100
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/18, 1:59 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line5.00 vs 5.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched16
Current mean1.60
Prior mean14.80
›All model inputs (15)
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Isaiah Davis · Under the number
model projects 5
The best move
The 5.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
4.5
49%
-
51%
2.02 (+102) fair
-
5
49%
1%
49%
2.00 (+100) fair
-
5.5now
51%
-
49%
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+8/ 55
Calibrated win probability 48%
Market+0/ 15
Market consensus 50% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
Card ID: c-401873001-IsaiahDavis-RUSHING_YARDSPublished 10/18/2026, 5:59:02 AM
Variance25.30
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched16
current_mean1.60
prior_mean14.80
current_weight0.770
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games21
player_espn_id4695404
season2026
1.88 (-113)
-4.7%
6
51%
1%
48%
1.96 (-104) fair
-
9.5
55%
-
45%
1.82 (-122) fair
-
14.5
60%
-
40%
1.66 (-151) fair
-
19.5
65%
-
35%
1.53 (-187) fair
-
24.5
70%
-
30%
1.43 (-233) fair
-
29.5
74%
-
26%
1.35 (-289) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Parham (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Joseph OssaiOUT
Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Adonai MitchellOUT
Mitchell (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Breece HallOUT
Hall (quadriceps) is out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Omar Cooper Jr.Q
Cooper (ankle) was activated from injured reserve Saturday.
Kenyon SadiqQ
Sadiq (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots after logging a full practice Friday.
Dane BeltonQ
questionable
Other · 18
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is expected to retain a regular role in three-receiver sets Sunday against the Patriots after the Jets ruled out Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
NE
Out · 2
Karon PruntyOUT
Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Questionable / DTD · 6
A.J. BrownQ
The Patriots activated Brown (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday, but he's still listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Will CampbellQ
Campbell (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
TreVeyon HendersonQ
Henderson said Friday that an MRI revealed he sustained a high-ankle sprain but that he is "hoping to play" Sunday against the Jets, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
Craig WoodsonQ
questionable
Christian Elliss
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
Q
questionable
Channing CanadaQ
questionable
Other · 17
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Marcus Bryant?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Behren Morton?
Dametrious Crownover?
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Romeo Doubs?
Doubs caught one of three targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 62% of the time (mean 0.88 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 208 players quoting player_rush_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL rushing yards under) hit 54.3% over 990 graded cards, 988 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
