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5 games this season, 21 games last season, 56% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
21.5
UNDER
21.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.8pp
Market
Receiving Yards 21.5
DK
1.91
-110
Projection29.8vs21.5(8.3 over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
SZN
46%
12/26
H2H
50%
1/2
ACC
49%
n=4242
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards over plays: 49% of 4242 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.8pp
EV
-10.2%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-4 on Douglas
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 29.8 vs line 21.5
›Model read P(over) 60% sits 10pp off the market. Receiving Yards has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: 39% looks big, but the actual gap is only 8.3 and Receiving Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 2 books
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 4242 graded, of which 2125 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.8pp.
›Baby line: 21.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 4242 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 2125 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.8pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 21.5)49.8%
Fair price2.01 · +101
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/17, 11:11 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line29.80 vs 21.5
5 games this season, 21 games last season, 56% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games5
Prior games21
Prior games fetched21
Current mean29.40
Prior mean25.30
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
21.5
1.91 (-110)1.91
1.88 (-114)1.88
FD
21.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 52.4%
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 39-54%price needs 52%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -110 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 21.5 is already the best line on the board (14.6% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
21
60%
1%
39%
1.65 (-155) fair
-
21.5nowbest EV
60%
-
40%
1.91 (-110)
+14.6%
22
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYJ
Out · 4
Dylan ParhamOUT
Parham (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Joseph OssaiOUT
Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Adonai MitchellOUT
Mitchell (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Breece HallOUT
Hall (quadriceps) is out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 2
Kenyon SadiqQ
Sadiq (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots after logging a full practice Friday.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Dane Belton
Q
questionable
Other · 19
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is set to continue as the No. 2 wide receiver for the Jets' game against the Patriots on Sunday.
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Omar Cooper Jr.?
Cooper (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at New England.
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
NE
Out · 2
Karon PruntyOUT
Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Will CampbellQ
Campbell (knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets.
TreVeyon HendersonQ
Henderson said Friday that an MRI revealed he sustained a high-ankle sprain but that he is "hoping to play" Sunday against the Jets, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
Craig WoodsonQ
questionable
Christian EllissQ
questionable
Channing CanadaQ
questionable
Other · 18
A.J. Brown?
Brown (ankle) will likely be activated from injured reserve to play Sunday against the Jets, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
★ RECENT FORM
DeMario Douglas · Receiving Yards vs 21.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 29.4
LAST 10
40%
2/5 over · avg 29.4
SEASON
40%
2/5 over · avg 29.4
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.91 (-110) the price needs 52% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
DeMario Douglas · Receiving Yards vs 21.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 11vsLVW65Hit
Oct 4@BUFW15Miss
Sep 27@JAXL38Hit
Sep 20vsPITW9Miss
Sep 10@SEAL20Miss
Feb 8vsSEAL45Hit
Jan 25@DENW0Miss
Jan 18vsHOUW36Hit
Jan 12vsLACW3Miss
Jan 4vsMIAW29Hit
Dec 28@NYJW10Miss
Dec 22@BALW6Miss
Dec 14vsBUFL0Miss
Dec 2vsNYGW33Hit
Nov 23@CINW37Hit
Nov 14vsNYJW36Hit
Nov 9@TBW34Hit
Nov 2vsATLW100Hit
Oct 26vsCLEW44Hit
Oct 19@TENW17Miss
Oct 12@NOW71Hit
Oct 6@BUFW17Miss
Sep 28vsCARW0Miss
Sep 21vsPITL7Miss
Sep 14@MIAW8Miss
Sep 7vsLVL-2Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 21.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 52% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards over) hit 49.3% over 4,242 graded cards, 4,234 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Marcus Bryant?
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Behren Morton?
Dametrious Crownover?
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Romeo Doubs?
Doubs caught one of three targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
