Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
1 game this season, 16 games last season, 20% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
50.5
UNDER
50.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
50%
Edge
-2.9pp
Market
Receiving Yards 50.5
DK
1.88
-114
Projection56.6vs50.5(6.1 over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
47%
8/17
SZN
47%
8/17
H2H
-
ACC
49%
n=4242
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards over plays: 49% of 4242 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.9pp
EV
-11.0%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
◆Best lineBetter number: Over 79.5 at 3.52 (+252) (+10.5% EV)
Every game behind L5, L10, L20 and H2H, drawn against tonight's line.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Road0-0
Run diff-3.0
HOMENE
3-2
L103-2
StreakW2
Home0-0
Run diff+16.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NYJ
Out · 4
Dylan ParhamOUT
Parham (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Joseph OssaiOUT
Ossai (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Adonai MitchellOUT
Mitchell (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Breece HallOUT
Hall (quadriceps) is out for Sunday's game, Brian Costello of the New York Post reports.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Kenyon SadiqQ
Sadiq (concussion) is listed as questionable but is in line to play in Sunday's game at New England, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 36-58%price needs 53%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -114 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 56.6 vs line 50.5
›Edge test fails: our 6.1 gap is only 12% of the 50.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(over) 50% across 3 books
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 4242 graded, of which 2125 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.8pp.
›Injury kill: player QUESTIONABLE: A.J. Brown
›Watch only: no expected value at the quoted price
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ player QUESTIONABLE: A.J. Brown
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 4242 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 2125 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.8pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 50.5)50.3%
Fair price1.99 · -101
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/18, 10:02 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line56.60 vs 50.5
1 game this season, 16 games last season, 20% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games1
Prior games16
Prior games fetched16
Current mean26
Prior mean64.30
›All model inputs (15)
Variance
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
A.J. Brown · Over the number
model projects 56.6
The best move
Best value is the 79.5 at 3.52 (+252) (10.5% EV) - a better number than the 50.5 this card is priced at.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 50% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
50.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.91 (-110)1.91
FD
52.5
1.88 (-113)1.88
1.88 (-113)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.3%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-11.0%
Edge %-2.9pp
Omar Cooper Jr.
Q
Cooper (ankle) was activated from injured reserve Saturday.
Dane BeltonQ
questionable
Other · 18ShowHide
Isaiah Williams?
Williams should continue to serve as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson and Tim Patrick for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Tim Patrick?
Patrick is expected to retain a regular role in three-receiver sets Sunday against the Patriots after the Jets ruled out Adonai Mitchell (finger).
Braelon Allen?
Allen will once again operate as the Jets' primary running back for Sunday's game against the Patriots due to the absence of Breece Hall (quadriceps).
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
NE
Out · 2
Karon PruntyOUT
Prunty (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Carlton Davis IIIOUT
Davis (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Questionable / DTD · 6
A.J. BrownQ
Brown (ankle), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets, is expected to be active and play "a good amount" of snaps, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Will CampbellQ
Campbell (knee), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets, is expected to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
TreVeyon HendersonQ
Henderson (ankle), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Jets, is likely to suit up, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Craig WoodsonQ
questionable
Christian EllissQ
questionable
Channing CanadaQ
questionable
Other · 17ShowHide
Charles Woods?
Woods (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Jets.
Dre'Mont Jones?
Jones (shoulder) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets.
Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson's workload against the Jets on Sunday will depend on whether TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) is cleared to play, Evan Lazaar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Kevin Byard?
Morgan Moses?
Marcus Jones?
Cory Durden?
Christian Gonzalez?
Gonzalez (shoulder) was a full participant in Thursday's practice.
Marcus Bryant?
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards over) hit 49.3% over 4,242 graded cards, 4,234 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
A.J. Brown · Receiving Yards vs 50.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
0%
0/1 over · avg 26.0
LAST 10
0%
0/1 over · avg 26.0
SEASON
0%
0/1 over · avg 26.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.88 (-114) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
The Patriots opened the 21-day practice window Wednesday for Bryant (ankle) to return from injured reserve.
Eli Raridon?
Raridon caught all five of his targets for 57 yards during the Patriots' 45-17 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Corey Kiner?
Kiner is expected to move into the No. 2 spot on the depth chart behind lead back Rhamondre Stevenson in Sunday's game against the Jets with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) expected to be sidelined for multiple weeks, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Behren Morton?
Dametrious Crownover?
Andy Borregales?
Borregales made his lone field-goal attempt and all six extra-point tries during Sunday's 45-17 win over Las Vegas.
Efton Chism III?
Chism caught five of six targets for 57 yards and added a two-yard rush during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Hunter Henry?
Henry caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Romeo Doubs?
Doubs caught one of three targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 45-17 win over the Raiders.
Game log
A.J. Brown · Receiving Yards vs 50.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Line 50.5
41
95
68
25
26
LVWSHBUFSFSEA
Oldest to newest. Green beat the line for the over, red did not.
Sep 10@SEAL26Miss
Jan 11vsSFL25Miss
Dec 28@BUFW68Hit
Dec 20@WSHW95Hit
Dec 14vsLVW41Miss
Dec 9@LACL100Hit
Nov 28vsCHIL132Hit
Nov 23@DALL110Hit
Nov 17vsDETW49Miss
Nov 11@GBW13Miss
Oct 19@MINW121Hit
Oct 10@NYGL80Hit
Oct 5vsDENL43Miss
Sep 28@TBW7Miss
Sep 21vsLARW109Hit
Sep 14@KCW27Miss
Sep 5vsDALW8Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 50.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
