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4 games this season, 7 games last season, 50% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
9.5
UNDER
9.5
Our win %
56%
Market %
51%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Rush Attempts 9.5
DK
1.82
-122
Projection6.9vs9.5(2.6 under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
73%
8/11
SZN
73%
8/11
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
2.2%
Alpha Score
42
Recommended
0.67u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 6-4 on MillerStake 2.67u
◆Best lineBuy up to 10: an exact 10 returns your stake (6% push)
Why this card
›Rush Attempts projection 6.9 vs line 9.5
›Model read P(under) 69% sits 18pp off the market. Rush Attempts has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: rush_attempts-flier-only.
›Prop market fair P(under) 51% across 4 books
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 9.5)51.2%
Fair price2.05 · +105
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/17, 2:47 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line6.87 vs 9.5
4 games this season, 7 games last season, 50% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games11
Current games4
Prior games7
Prior games fetched7
›All model inputs (19)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
9.5
1.96 (-104)1.96
1.82 (-122)1.82
FANATICS
9.5
1.95 (-105)1.95
1.71 (-140)1.71
DK implied, with vig (this side): 55.0%
Confidence readOn the fence
56% to hitrange 49-62%price needs 55%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -122 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this under up to 10: an exact 10 returns your stake instead of losing (6% of outcomes), same win chance as the 9.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
9
62%
7%
31%
1.51 (-198) fair
-
9.5nowbest EV
69%
-
31%
1.82 (-122)
+24.9%
10
Line history
Loading…
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)2.67u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.67u
EV %2.2%
Edge %+5.0pp
Card ID: c-401873000-KendreMiller-RUSH_ATTEMPTSPublished 10/17/2026, 6:47:21 AM
3.50
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_ATTEMPTS
games11
current_games4
prior_games7
prior_games_fetched7
current_mean7.25
prior_mean6.71
current_weight0.500
role_shift0
variance_floor3.50
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4599739
season2026
push-safe
69%
6%
25%
1.37 (-271) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 53% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NO
Out · 2
Anfernee JenningsOUT
Jennings (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Kaden EllissOUT
Elliss (calf) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Alvin KamaraQ
Kamara (back) practiced on a limited basis Friday is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at the Giants, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.
Chris OlaveQ
Olave (illness) was limited at Friday's practice and will be listed as questionable for Week 6.
Lorenzo Styles Jr.Q
questionable
Jeremiah WrightQ
questionable
Nathan ShepherdQ
questionable
Other · 18
Vernon Broughton?
Broughton (illness) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Colby Wooden?
Tyree Wilson?
Zach Wood?
The Saints designated Wood (calf) to return from injured reserve Wednesday.
Kendre Miller?
Miller turned 10 carries into 30 yards and a touchdown during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Noah Fant?
Fant brought in his lone target for seven yards during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Mike Reid?
Zach Wilson?
Jordyn Tyson?
Saints head coach Kellen Moore said Monday that Tyson (hamstring) is "progressing well" but isn't on track to return to practice this week, Jeff Nowak of WWL New Orleans reports.
NYG
Out · 3
Colton HoodOUT
Hood (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.
Tyler NubinOUT
Nubin (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.
Theo JohnsonOUT
Johnson (neck) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Jermaine EluemunorQ
questionable
Andrew ThomasQ
Thomas (groin) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Abdul CarterQ
Carter (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Other · 19
Daniel Carlson?
Carlson went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Juwan Johnson?
Johnson brought in four of five targets for 16 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Devaughn Vele?
Vele secured four of six targets for 26 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Tyler Shough?
Shough completed 16 of 25 passes for 96 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Jaylan Ford?
Ford (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Christen Miller?
Miller is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Julian Blackmon?
Blackmon (shoulder) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Barion Brown?
Brown (thigh) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Davon Godchaux?
Godchaux (groin) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Jason Pinnock?
Pinnock (concussion) doesn't carry an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Malik Harrison?
Greg Newsome II?
Darnell Mooney?
Mooney (neck) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
J.J. McCarthy?
Giants head coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday he plans to keep using McCarthy in a change-of-pace role behind starting quarterback Jameis Winston in an effort to take advantage of McCarthy's scrambling ability, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Braxton Berrios?
Berrios (foot) underwent successful surgery Friday to repair a Lisfranc injury, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Malachi Fields?
Fields hauled in both of his targets for 20 yards during the Giants' 27-27 tie with the Commanders on Sunday.
Dru Phillips?
Phillips had five total tackles (five solo) and 2.0 sacks in Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
Nikko Reed?
Jake Haener?
J.C. Davis?
Bobby Jamison-Travis?
Devin Singletary?
Dominic Zvada?
Zvada went 2-for-5 on field-goal attempts and made all three of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
Isaiah Likely?
Likely caught 11 of 13 targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders.
Jameis Winston?
Winston completed 33 of 54 passes for 326 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders. He also rushed five times for 27 yards and lost a fumble.
Cam Skattebo?
Skattebo rushed 13 times for 59 yards and caught two of three targets for 12 yards in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders. He also lost a fumble.
Malik Nabers?
Nabers caught 11 of 20 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders.
Chauncey Golston?
The Giants placed Golston (neck) on injured reserve Saturday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNO
1-4
L101-4
StreakL3
Road0-0
Run diff-33.0
HOMENYG
3-1
L103-1
Streak-
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Kendre Miller · Rush Attempts vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
75%
3/4 under · avg 7.3
LAST 10
75%
3/4 under · avg 7.3
SEASON
75%
3/4 under · avg 7.3
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 1.82 (-122) the price needs 55% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Kendre Miller · Rush Attempts vs 9.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 11vsMINL10Miss
Oct 6vsATLL6Hit
Sep 27vsLVL4Hit
Sep 13@DETL9Hit
Oct 19@CHIL1Hit
Oct 12vsNEL8Hit
Oct 5vsNYGW10Miss
Sep 28@BUFL11Miss
Sep 21@SEAL7Hit
Sep 14vsSFL5Hit
Sep 7vsARIL5Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 9.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 55% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
