Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
Kayvon Thibodeaux · Tackles + Assists · Bet Data Labs
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
Our win %
45%
Market %
40%
Edge
+5.0pp
Market
Tackles + Assists 2.5
DK
2.37
+137
Projection1.5vs2.5(1.0 under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
73%
11/15
SZN
73%
11/15
H2H
100%
1/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
6.0%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
1.09u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 4.37u
◆Best lineBuy up to 3: an exact 3 returns your stake (11% push)
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 1.5 vs line 2.5
›Model read P(under) 62% sits 22pp off the market. Tackles + Assists has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test can't run here: the books are on different lines, so there is no single line to measure our gap against. The card stands on the projection and the price, and does not count this check.
›Prop market fair P(under) 40% across 1 book
›Baby line: 2.5 is below the 4.5 floor for Tackles + Assists. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(under 2.5)39.7%
Fair price1.66 · -152
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 4:10 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.54 vs 2.5
5 games this season, 6 games last season, 77% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games15
Current games5
Prior games6
Prior games fetched10
›All model inputs (19)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
2.5
1.56 (-178)1.56
2.37 (+137)2.37
DK implied, with vig (this side): 42.2%
Confidence readOn the fence
45% to hitrange 39-50%price needs 42%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +137 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 40% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Q
questionable
Jeremiah WrightQ
questionable
Nathan ShepherdQ
questionable
Other · 17
Vernon Broughton?
Broughton (illness) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Colby Wooden?
Tyree Wilson?
Kendre Miller?
Miller turned 10 carries into 30 yards and a touchdown during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Noah Fant?
Fant brought in his lone target for seven yards during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Mike Reid?
Zach Wilson?
Jordyn Tyson?
Saints head coach Kellen Moore said Monday that Tyson (hamstring) is "progressing well" but isn't on track to return to practice this week, Jeff Nowak of WWL New Orleans reports.
Daniel Carlson?
Carlson went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Juwan Johnson?
Johnson brought in four of five targets for 16 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Devaughn Vele?
Vele secured four of six targets for 26 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Tyler Shough?
Shough completed 16 of 25 passes for 96 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Jaylan Ford?
Ford (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Christen Miller?
Miller is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Julian Blackmon?
Blackmon (shoulder) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Barion Brown?
Brown (thigh) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Davon Godchaux?
Godchaux (groin) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
NYG
Out · 3
Colton HoodOUT
Hood (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.
Tyler NubinOUT
Nubin (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.
Theo JohnsonOUT
Johnson (neck) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Jermaine EluemunorQ
questionable
Andrew ThomasQ
Thomas (groin) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Abdul CarterQ
Carter (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Other · 19
Jason Pinnock?
Pinnock (concussion) doesn't carry an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Malik Harrison?
Greg Newsome II?
Darnell Mooney?
Mooney (neck) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
J.J. McCarthy?
Giants head coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday he plans to keep using McCarthy in a change-of-pace role behind starting quarterback Jameis Winston in an effort to take advantage of McCarthy's scrambling ability, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Braxton Berrios?
Berrios (foot) underwent successful surgery Friday to repair a Lisfranc injury, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Malachi Fields?
Fields hauled in both of his targets for 20 yards during the Giants' 27-27 tie with the Commanders on Sunday.
Dru Phillips?
Phillips had five total tackles (five solo) and 2.0 sacks in Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
Nikko Reed?
Jake Haener?
J.C. Davis?
Bobby Jamison-Travis?
Devin Singletary?
Dominic Zvada?
Zvada went 2-for-5 on field-goal attempts and made all three of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
Isaiah Likely?
Likely caught 11 of 13 targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders.
Jameis Winston?
Winston completed 33 of 54 passes for 326 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders. He also rushed five times for 27 yards and lost a fumble.
Cam Skattebo?
Skattebo rushed 13 times for 59 yards and caught two of three targets for 12 yards in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders. He also lost a fumble.
Malik Nabers?
Nabers caught 11 of 20 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders.
Chauncey Golston?
The Giants placed Golston (neck) on injured reserve Saturday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNO
1-4
L101-4
StreakL3
Road0-0
Run diff-33.0
HOMENYG
3-1
L103-1
Streak-
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Kayvon Thibodeaux · Tackles + Assists vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
100%
5/5 under · avg 1.2
LAST 10
100%
5/5 under · avg 1.2
SEASON
100%
5/5 under · avg 1.2
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At 2.37 (+137) the price needs 42% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Kayvon Thibodeaux · Tackles + Assists vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
100%5/5 under
Oct 11@WSH-1Hit
Oct 4vsARIW2Hit
Sep 27vsTENW1Hit
Sep 22@LARL0Hit
Sep 14vsDALW2Hit
Nov 9@CHIL3Miss
Nov 2vsSFL1Hit
Oct 26@PHIL5Miss
Oct 19@DENL1Hit
Oct 10vsPHIW3Miss
Oct 5@NOL1Hit
Sep 28vsLACW2Hit
Sep 22vsKCL2Hit
Sep 14@DALL5Miss
Sep 7@WSHL2Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 2.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 42% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
