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2 games this season, 17 games last season, 33% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
18%
Market %
10%
Edge
+7.5pp
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
DK
9.00
+800
Projection0.3vs0.5(0.2 under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
26%
5/19
SZN
26%
5/19
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
+7.5pp
EV
59.7%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Stake 5.00u
Why this card
›Anytime TD model P(scores) 30% from 0.36 TD per game over 19 games, priced P(yes) 18%
›Model read P(yes) 30% sits 20pp off the market. Anytime TD has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.2 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(yes) 10% across 6 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 0.5)10.3%
Fair price9.73 · +873
Books de-vigged6
Pulled10/17, 4:27 AM ET
Fair value is the mean of 6 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.30 vs 0.5
2 games this season, 17 games last season, 33% on this season
Sourcegamelog
Current games2
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
Current mean0.500
Prior mean0.294
›All model inputs (17)
Variance
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
9.00 (+800)9.00
- (0)1.00
FD
0.5
8.00 (+700)8.00
- (0)1.00
FANATICS
0.5
7.00 (+600)7.00
- (0)1.00
DK implied, with vig (this side): 11.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
18% to hitrange 9-27%price needs 11%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +800 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (244.5% EV). No better rung available.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
38%
-
62%
9.00 (+800)
(+244.5%)
1
5%
33%
62%
13.02 (+1202) fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.9pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 0% of the time.
Absolute magnitude over 2242 players quoting player_anytime_td, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NO
Out · 2
Anfernee JenningsOUT
Jennings (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Kaden EllissOUT
Elliss (calf) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Alvin KamaraQ
Kamara (back) practiced on a limited basis Friday is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at the Giants, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.
Chris OlaveQ
Olave (illness) was limited at Friday's practice and will be listed as questionable for Week 6.
Lorenzo Styles Jr.Q
questionable
Jeremiah Wright
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)5.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)1.25u
EV %59.7%
Edge %+7.5pp
Card ID: c-401873000-DevinSingletary-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/17/2026, 8:27:31 AM
0.49
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games2
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean0.500
prior_mean0.294
current_weight0.330
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games19
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.363
player_espn_id4040761
season2026
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
Q
questionable
Nathan ShepherdQ
questionable
Other · 18
Vernon Broughton?
Broughton (illness) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Colby Wooden?
Tyree Wilson?
Zach Wood?
The Saints designated Wood (calf) to return from injured reserve Wednesday.
Kendre Miller?
Miller turned 10 carries into 30 yards and a touchdown during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Noah Fant?
Fant brought in his lone target for seven yards during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Mike Reid?
Zach Wilson?
Jordyn Tyson?
Saints head coach Kellen Moore said Monday that Tyson (hamstring) is "progressing well" but isn't on track to return to practice this week, Jeff Nowak of WWL New Orleans reports.
Daniel Carlson?
Carlson went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Juwan Johnson?
Johnson brought in four of five targets for 16 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Devaughn Vele?
Vele secured four of six targets for 26 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Tyler Shough?
Shough completed 16 of 25 passes for 96 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Jaylan Ford?
Ford (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Christen Miller?
Miller is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Julian Blackmon?
Blackmon (shoulder) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Barion Brown?
Brown (thigh) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Davon Godchaux?
Godchaux (groin) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
NYG
Out · 3
Colton HoodOUT
Hood (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.
Tyler NubinOUT
Nubin (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.
Theo JohnsonOUT
Johnson (neck) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Jermaine EluemunorQ
questionable
Andrew ThomasQ
Thomas (groin) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Abdul CarterQ
Carter (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Other · 19
Jason Pinnock?
Pinnock (concussion) doesn't carry an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Malik Harrison?
Greg Newsome II?
Darnell Mooney?
Mooney (neck) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
J.J. McCarthy?
Giants head coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday he plans to keep using McCarthy in a change-of-pace role behind starting quarterback Jameis Winston in an effort to take advantage of McCarthy's scrambling ability, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Braxton Berrios?
Berrios (foot) underwent successful surgery Friday to repair a Lisfranc injury, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Malachi Fields?
Fields hauled in both of his targets for 20 yards during the Giants' 27-27 tie with the Commanders on Sunday.
Dru Phillips?
Phillips had five total tackles (five solo) and 2.0 sacks in Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
Nikko Reed?
Jake Haener?
J.C. Davis?
Bobby Jamison-Travis?
Devin Singletary?
Dominic Zvada?
Zvada went 2-for-5 on field-goal attempts and made all three of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
Isaiah Likely?
Likely caught 11 of 13 targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders.
Jameis Winston?
Winston completed 33 of 54 passes for 326 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders. He also rushed five times for 27 yards and lost a fumble.
Cam Skattebo?
Skattebo rushed 13 times for 59 yards and caught two of three targets for 12 yards in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders. He also lost a fumble.
Malik Nabers?
Nabers caught 11 of 20 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders.
Chauncey Golston?
The Giants placed Golston (neck) on injured reserve Saturday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNO
1-4
L101-4
StreakL3
Road0-0
Run diff-33.0
HOMENYG
3-1
L103-1
Streak-
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
Devin Singletary · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
50%
1/2 over · avg 0.5
LAST 10
50%
1/2 over · avg 0.5
SEASON
50%
1/2 over · avg 0.5
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 9.00 (+800) the price needs 11% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Devin Singletary · Anytime TD vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
60%3/5 over
Sep 22@LARL0Miss
Sep 14vsDALW1Hit
Jan 4vsDALW1Hit
Dec 28@LVW1Hit
Dec 21vsMINL0Miss
Dec 14vsWSHL0Miss
Dec 2@NEL1Hit
Nov 23@DETL0Miss
Nov 16vsGBL2Hit
Nov 9@CHIL0Miss
Nov 2vsSFL0Miss
Oct 26@PHIL0Miss
Oct 19@DENL0Miss
Oct 10vsPHIW0Miss
Oct 5@NOL0Miss
Sep 28vsLACW0Miss
Sep 22vsKCL0Miss
Sep 14@DALL0Miss
Sep 7@WSHL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 11% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
