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4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
10.5
UNDER
10.5
Our win %
44%
Market %
51%
Edge
-6.2pp
Market
Receiving Yards 10.5
DK
1.87
-115
Projection12.4vs10.5(1.9 over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
53%
8/15
SZN
53%
8/15
H2H
100%
1/1
ACC
49%
n=4242
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receiving yards over plays: 49% of 4242 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-6.2pp
EV
-16.9%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 10-6 on Kamara
Why this card
›Receiving Yards projection 12.4 vs line 10.5
›Edge test fails: 18% looks big, but the actual gap is only 1.9 and Receiving Yards needs 10 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 51% across 1 book
›Calibration: NFL Receiving Yards plays predicted ~58% have hit 49% over 4242 graded, of which 2125 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.8pp.
›Baby line: 10.5 is below the 40 floor for Receiving Yards. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
›Injury kill: player QUESTIONABLE: Alvin Kamara
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
⚠ player QUESTIONABLE: Alvin Kamara
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 4242 NFL receiving yards cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 49%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 2125 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.8pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 10.5)50.6%
Fair price1.97 · -103
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/17, 3:52 AM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line12.40 vs 10.5
4 games this season, 6 games last season, 73% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games4
Prior games6
Prior games fetched11
Current mean10.30
Prior mean16.90
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
10.5
1.87 (-115)1.87
1.92 (-109)1.92
FD
11.5
1.88 (-114)1.88
1.88 (-114)1.88
DK implied, with vig (this side): 53.5%
Confidence readPrice too short
44% to hitrange 38-51%price needs 53%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -115 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
The 10.5 is the best line the books are quoting for this side right now.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
10
52%
1%
47%
1.89 (-112) fair
-
10.5now
52%
-
48%
1.87 (-115)
-2.4%
11
51%
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 0.6pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 61% of the time (mean 0.72 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 435 players quoting player_reception_yds, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
NO
Out · 2
Anfernee JenningsOUT
Jennings (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Kaden EllissOUT
Elliss (calf) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Questionable / DTD · 5
Alvin KamaraQ
Kamara (back) practiced on a limited basis Friday is listed as questionable for Sunday's game at the Giants, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.
Chris OlaveQ
Olave (illness) was limited at Friday's practice and will be listed as questionable for Week 6.
Lorenzo Styles Jr.Q
questionable
Jeremiah Wright
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-16.9%
Edge %-6.2pp
Card ID: c-401873000-AlvinKamara-RECEIVING_YARDSPublished 10/17/2026, 7:52:12 AM
Variance23.00
Modelnfl-v0.1-gamelog-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games4
prior_games6
prior_games_fetched11
current_mean10.30
prior_mean16.90
current_weight0.730
role_shift1
opp_adj1
games15
player_espn_id3054850
season2026
1%
48%
1.93 (-107) fair
-
11.5
51%
-
49%
1.88 (-114)
-4.2%
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 51% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Q
questionable
Nathan ShepherdQ
questionable
Other · 18
Vernon Broughton?
Broughton (illness) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Giants, Jeff Nowak of The Big 870 New Orleans reports.
Colby Wooden?
Tyree Wilson?
Zach Wood?
The Saints designated Wood (calf) to return from injured reserve Wednesday.
Kendre Miller?
Miller turned 10 carries into 30 yards and a touchdown during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Noah Fant?
Fant brought in his lone target for seven yards during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Mike Reid?
Zach Wilson?
Jordyn Tyson?
Saints head coach Kellen Moore said Monday that Tyson (hamstring) is "progressing well" but isn't on track to return to practice this week, Jeff Nowak of WWL New Orleans reports.
Daniel Carlson?
Carlson went 1-for-2 on extra-point tries during the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Juwan Johnson?
Johnson brought in four of five targets for 16 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Devaughn Vele?
Vele secured four of six targets for 26 yards in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Tyler Shough?
Shough completed 16 of 25 passes for 96 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in the Saints' 23-13 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Jaylan Ford?
Ford (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Christen Miller?
Miller is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Julian Blackmon?
Blackmon (shoulder) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Barion Brown?
Brown (thigh) is active for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Davon Godchaux?
Godchaux (groin) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
NYG
Out · 3
Colton HoodOUT
Hood (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.
Tyler NubinOUT
Nubin (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.
Theo JohnsonOUT
Johnson (neck) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Questionable / DTD · 3
Jermaine EluemunorQ
questionable
Andrew ThomasQ
Thomas (groin) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Abdul CarterQ
Carter (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Other · 19
Jason Pinnock?
Pinnock (concussion) doesn't carry an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Saints.
Malik Harrison?
Greg Newsome II?
Darnell Mooney?
Mooney (neck) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
J.J. McCarthy?
Giants head coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday he plans to keep using McCarthy in a change-of-pace role behind starting quarterback Jameis Winston in an effort to take advantage of McCarthy's scrambling ability, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Braxton Berrios?
Berrios (foot) underwent successful surgery Friday to repair a Lisfranc injury, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
Malachi Fields?
Fields hauled in both of his targets for 20 yards during the Giants' 27-27 tie with the Commanders on Sunday.
Dru Phillips?
Phillips had five total tackles (five solo) and 2.0 sacks in Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
Nikko Reed?
Jake Haener?
J.C. Davis?
Bobby Jamison-Travis?
Devin Singletary?
Dominic Zvada?
Zvada went 2-for-5 on field-goal attempts and made all three of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-27 tie with the Commanders.
Isaiah Likely?
Likely caught 11 of 13 targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders.
Jameis Winston?
Winston completed 33 of 54 passes for 326 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders. He also rushed five times for 27 yards and lost a fumble.
Cam Skattebo?
Skattebo rushed 13 times for 59 yards and caught two of three targets for 12 yards in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders. He also lost a fumble.
Malik Nabers?
Nabers caught 11 of 20 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-27 tie against the Commanders.
Chauncey Golston?
The Giants placed Golston (neck) on injured reserve Saturday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
★ RECENT FORM
Alvin Kamara · Receiving Yards vs 10.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
25%
1/4 over · avg 10.3
LAST 10
25%
1/4 over · avg 10.3
SEASON
25%
1/4 over · avg 10.3
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At 1.87 (-115) the price needs 53% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYNO
1-4
L101-4
StreakL3
Road0-0
Run diff-33.0
HOMENYG
3-1
L103-1
Streak-
Home0-0
Run diff+3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Alvin Kamara · Receiving Yards vs 10.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
20%1/5 over
Oct 11vsMINL-6Miss
Oct 6vsATLL35Hit
Sep 27vsLVL5Miss
Sep 20@BALW7Miss
Nov 23vsATLL4Miss
Nov 9@CARW32Hit
Nov 2@LARL3Miss
Oct 26vsTBL24Hit
Oct 19@CHIL1Miss
Oct 12vsNEL45Hit
Oct 5vsNYGW28Hit
Sep 28@BUFL2Miss
Sep 21@SEAL14Hit
Sep 14vsSFL21Hit
Sep 7vsARIL12Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 10.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 53% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receiving yards over) hit 49.3% over 4,242 graded cards, 4,234 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
